Warriors have demolished all the good achieved in 2018

"It's just a matter of faith."

That's it, apparently.

It's been a phrase used by Warriors fans since the commercial hit TVs across New Zealand in 2001.

"So when you're out there every week remember, through thick and thin, we're standing by your side."

Well done to those still here.

The 18 seasons since have hardly brought with them the reward one deserves for sticking by their side. Two Grand Final appearances in 2002 and 2011 are as good as it gets for the club in their 25-year history.

Year 26 doesn't offer a lot of hope for another any time soon either.

It's more than likely going to be a matter of punishment in the coming years for the Warriors faithful. 

The 2019 season itself has not been pretty, but it was doomed long before Round 1 kicked off in March.

If you've had enough of the Shaun Johnson doomsday discussions or simply chose to blissfully ignore the ineptitude of the club and their dealings with him, you can skip ahead.

For the rest of us, the horror 2019 season started in November 2018 when one of the best players the club has ever produced left the building on a frustratingly sour note.

Johnson is one of the best halves in the NRL. Yet, the club tried to take an unnecessarily hard approach in discussing his next contract and it backfired - badly. Dropping hints on the radio about a reduction to his current deal while he's on the other side of the world is about as dumb as it gets in contract negotiations in this game.

Whatever the Warriors thought he was worth, they failed to even float the idea of a reduced contract before fracturing the relationship in a worryingly unprofessional manner.

Johnson is a top-tier talent in a position almost every premiership-winning team over the last decade has filled with top-tier talent themselves.

2018
Cooper Cronk/Luke Keary
2017
Cooper Cronk/Cameron Munster
2016
Chad Townsend/James Maloney
2015
Johnathan Thurston/Michael Morgan
2014
Adam Reynolds/Luke Keary
2013
Mitchell Pearce/James Maloney
2012
Cooper Cronk/Gareth Widdop
2011
Daly Cherry-Evans/Kieran Foran
2010
Ben Hornby/Jamie Soward
2009
Cooper Cronk/Brett Finch

Maybe he doesn't run the ball as often as you'd like. Perhaps you miss the days he seemed to step through the opposition to score every week. He might even be the "princess" some say he is.

Regardless, his departure took plenty out of the Warriors 2019 season and significantly lowers their ceiling in the coming years.

An elite player in a key playmaking position can occasionally rescue a struggling forward pack. They can be the game-breaker late in a tight contest that turns an L into a W. 

Now, he wouldn't have turned many of the Warriors 14 losses (so far this season) into wins, but think of the close games; against the Rabbitohs in Round 5 (28-24), the Storm in Round 7 (12-13), the Panthers in Round 15 (18-19), the Broncos in Round 17 (18-18) and the Eels in Round 19 (24-22).

It's not difficult to imagine him being the difference in one or two of those.

We're never going to know what would have been had Johnson been at the club this season. It's safe to assume they wouldn't have dropped from 8th on the ladder with 15 wins to 14th on the ladder with 14 losses quite so embarrassingly, though.

What we do know about the Warriors is they are a terrible football side at the moment. Unfortunately for those across the ditch, it might stay this way for some time yet.

2019 Attack

The Warriors 2019 attack is only down 1.2 points on what it was in 2018, but there are a few things to cover.

First of all, their attack fails the eye-test.

While the overall number might only be slightly down at 17.8 points per game, the Warriors don't look anywhere near as dangerous.

They used their big men well to start the season. You could find Adam Blair, Leeson Ah Mau, Agnatius Paasi or Sam Lisone out the back of a block shape. They more often than not went themselves, but it did open up the possibility to catch the defence out wide. 

Blair does the job here:

He exposes some lazy sliding defence to create the extra man and simply shovels the ball on which ends with David Fusitu'a going over in the corner.

More recently, it's almost exclusively Nikorima taking the ball in those positions. While he's dangerous in attack himself, the Warriors have become one-dimensional. Almost Cowboys-like in the way they set up to shift the ball wide every set. They've got a bit of the Panthers about them as well with the 'give it to Tuivasa-Sheck and watch' approach not too dissimilar to Viliame Kikau's role at the foot of the mountains. 

While the poor Warriors attack as been a topic of conversation for some time now, Tohu Harris' name is rarely mentioned.

He's one of the most underrated players in the competition, and the way the Warriors have performed without him, or not performed if you like, only backs that up further.

Peta Hiku has been credited with helping Ken Maumalo spend most of the season towards the top of the try-scoring ladder. However, Hiku's quick hands and handy offloads aren't there to be used so often without the gravity Harris commands of the defence.

Harris attracts the defence as a hole-runner, ball-runner and ball-player. He's the complete package on the edge and his influence has been sorely missed despite the lack of commentary around his injury.

A lack of identity in attack and Harris' being unavailable since Round 14 are the main contributing factors behind the Warriors ranking 11th in attack in 2019. 

2019 Defence

There isn't much that needs to be said here.

It would be easier to copy and paste every other word for 'soft' in the thesaurus, but let's take a brief look at the atrocity that is the Warriors defence in 2019. 

Only the Titans concede more than the Warriors' 24.1 points per game. Throughout August and with their season on the line, the Kiwi club has allowed 35.4 points through them per game. 

The 38 tries the Warriors have conceded on the right side is the third-most in the competition while the 27 through the middle is only behind the Dragons. 

The Warriors have shown some potential in defence. Their effort to keep the Storm to 13 points in Round 7 will be one of the more impressive performances across the competition in 2019. However, once the points pile up, their heads drop, and the floodgates open. 

Resilience in defence is lacking. Effort and belief they can keep the opposition out hasn't been evident often enough for the Warriors to be a factor in September. 

Required Tweaks & Adjustments

The adjustments to the Warriors attack have already been touched on. Harris simply needs to be healthy to trigger an improvement. From there, they can work beyond their current one-dimensional and predictable block shapes that teams have learned to slide with to the sideline. 

What would help is a little more action through the middle.

The Warriors rank 11th in running metres at 1,562 per game despite Tuivasa-Sheck and Ken Maumalo holding the top two spots in total running metres with 4,475 metres and 4,216 metres respectively.

Leeson Ah Mau's110.5 running metres per game leads the way for the Warriors forwards while Agnatius Paasi sneaks into triple-figures at 100.1 metres per game. Bunty Afoa hasn't kicked on like some thought he might for his 89.2 metres per game. Meanwhile, much is made of Adam Blair's influence on the side by contributing just 67.4 metres per game.

Rugby league is a yardage game, and right now, the Warriors aren't getting far enough up the field to put themselves into scoring positions. 

As a result, they're on the back foot when the ball is turned over, and it's contributing to their awful defensive numbers. 

If the Warriors can fix up the middle in attack, the improvements will come through in defence. Results will come, and confidence will rise. The belief and effort in defence required to regularly stop the opposition soon follows.

Measured up against what they've produced in 2019, the Warriors 2018 season is a great example of what attitude can do for team defence. 

Outlook for 2020

The issues on the field are compounded by the lack of confidence in those making the decisions off it.

From Johnson's departure before the season started, to Cameron George's request for fans to dress as referees, and more recently, Stephen Kearney publicly telling George to leave the talk about the team to him, through to the two buyers of the club 18 months ago no longer being on speaking terms, the club is a mess.

George and his comments are at the forefront and two, in particular, leave little hope of a significant improvement in 2020.

Despite the history of halves in premiership-winning teams and the portion of the salary cap they command, George talked about spreading the cap more evenly to "get the balance of the squad right" when Johnson left the building.

The club has since used some of the opened salary cap space to sign Nikorima, who more recently has come off the bench as a utility option.

That sort of salary cap management is not the kind that brings success.

Do you know what might?

Having a youngster like Chanel Harris-Tavita playing above is contract amount to be one of the best bench utilities and backup halves in the competition. Or, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad doing the same in the outside backs before moving onto bigger and better things.

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Spreading the cap for "balance" doesn't improve the team.

Maximising it does.

The great teams are great because players on lower contracts outperform those contracts.

The Storm are always a prime example of this. More recently, the Roosters, Raiders and Sea Eagles have had minimum-money players performing above the figure written on the cheque every fortnight.

The results speak for themselves.

George also claimed he doesn't see 2019 "as a rebuilding year", and you know what?

He's right about that; it's a demolishing year.

The Warriors have demolished almost all of the good they achieved in 2018.

Last season was brilliant because it was un-Warriors-like. 

They won games late and held onto leads, their defence was inside the top six in the competition, and the eight games they won away from home is the most in the clubs history. This year, the Warriors have rarely been in positions to win games, their defence is the second-worst in the competition, and they've finished with fewer than their five wins at home this season just once in their history.

It's been the most Warriors-like of seasons.

I've lost count of the number of times I've responded to another footy fan having a jab at the club with "you think I'm not used to this?".

The German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche thought he was onto something when he penned the phrase, "Faith means not wanting to know what is true".

The Warriors faithful know all too well what is true about their club, though.

It's a shambles.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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