Wests' Model-Predicted Victory

The Stats Insider model predicted it, but the rest of the rugby league world did not, as Wests Tigers halted South Sydney's 9-game unbeaten streak, upsetting the Premiership favourites 22-6 and simultaneously keeping their finals hopes alive.

Robbie Farah was able to celebrate his 250th game for the Tigers in style, while John Sutton's 300th for Souths was ruined by the plucky Tigers outfit, who performed admirably in defence to keep the Rabbitohs at bay at ANZ Stadium.

The Stats Insider model was far more confident in the Tigers than the bookies, and it paid dividends:

• Bookmakers rated the Tigers a 29.5% chance, SI rated them at 45%
• Bookmakers set the line at 8.5, which SI rated a 23% edge to the Tigers
• Bookmakers set the Over/Under at 40.5, which SI rated a 12% edge to the Unders

Thanks to an attack that took its chances and a defence that held firm, all three bets were convincing winners.

After a tense first few minutes with the Rabbitohs threatening, the Tigers found their way over the line for a 6-0 lead through Esan Marsters. Wests then broke the game open in the 20th minute, increasing their advantage to 10-0 with a David Nofoaluma score.

Just prior to the second try, Sam Burgess had levelled former teammate, Farah - who left the Rabbitohs a month ago, with a heavy, somewhat controversial hit.

Sam Burgess doesn't hold back on former teammate Robbie Farah #NRLTigersSouths pic.twitter.com/v9PdiY7tFM

— Rated R (@TheNRLRoast) July 21, 2018

The next 40 minutes were a classic showing of the early season, defensive style Ivan Cleary's Tigers had made their own, denying Souths key field position and yardage time and again.

When Moses Mbye found his way over in the 57th minute to make it 16-0 after Marsters conversion, it looked like the Tigers had finally broken their spirit.

Corey Thompson intercepted a Souths ball on the right side, and an 80-metre sprint to the try-line to make it 22-0 killed off any chances of a comeback, just prior to the 70-minute mark.

Cody Walker scored a consolation try late on for Souths, but it wouldn't matter, as the Tigers - and the SI model - triumphed with a resounding victory.

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