What Did We Learn From the 2023 AFL Pre-Season?

The 2023 AFL pre-season matches are in the books, and we have gotten our first official glimpse at all 18 clubs.

Here at Stats Insider, our AFL Futures simulation results constantly update throughout the season, providing the single best predictor of what's to come.

The 2023 AFL pre-season gave us glimpses of the styles we can expect from contenders this year, as well as our first glimpse at players with their new teams ahead of the new season.

We took a look at the top five contenders according to our futures model and how they looked throughout the official pre-season matches.

READ: 2023 AFL Futures Analysis

Geelong Is the Team to Beat

The Cats are Stats Insider's most probable team to win the 2023 AFL premiership and Betfair's $6.00 flag favourites but they elected to ease into the new season and rest a number of stars in their pre-season hit-out against Brisbane.

It was far from a full-strength outfit, missing both Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins, but it did give opportunities to young players to showcase their skillsets.

Tanner Bruhn (19 disposals, 7 tackles) and Max Holmes (15 disposals, 5 tackles) continued to be involved in stoppage situations, while Esava Ratugolea appears to have cemented his spot in defence, with concerns around Jake Kolodjashnij and Jack Henry injured.

According to Stats Insider's AFL schedule difficulty analysis, Geelong has a favourable start to the 2023 season, taking on Gold Coast, Hawthorn and West Coast in the first five rounds. 

While Hawkins is under an injury cloud heading into Round 1, the list looks healthy and ready to go ahead of their AFL premiership defence. 

Richmond Right in the Mix

Richmond added two key players in the form of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper to its midfield stocks, further bolstering one of the strongest teams in the league. 

Much like the Cats, the Tigers were defeated in their practice match against a near full-strength Demons outfit by 50 points.

Taranto and Hopper combined for 56 disposals and 14 clearances in a great performance in isolation, but the Tigers will be more concerned by another injury to star Dion Prestia – the Tigers have won 69.1% of matches their injury-prone barometer has played in since joining.

Richmond kept their cards close enough to their chest at Casey Fields, with Shai Bolton, Dustin Martin or Jayden Short being trialled in different positions with limited midfield time.

Not quite sure how he did it but Jayden Short puts one through 😲 pic.twitter.com/aHJfm43OFZ

— AFL (@AFL) March 4, 2023

Our AFL schedule difficulty analysis views the opening six weeks of football as tough for the Tigers, with the Crows the only team not expected to play finals in 2023.

Can the Big Melbourne Duo Dominate?

Melbourne is the third most probable team with Stats Insider's 2023 AFL futures model, and they couldn't have looked more impressive in their pre-season game against Richmond.

Coach Simon Goodwin used nine different players in the centre bounce in the first 15 minutes of the game, using the pre-season game perfectly to fine-tune the versatility he plans on enacting during the season proper.

Melbourne controlled the game well behind the ball, led by Jake Bowey (19 disposals at 100% disposal efficiency), while the work rate of new recruit Lachie Hunter (26 disposals) and Alex Neal-Bullen (22 disposals, eight inside 50s), stood out considerably.

Any concerns about the offensive side of the game were put to bed against one of the best defences in the league, with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy kicking three goals each and showing how they'll work together throughout the season.

Good luck stopping these two!

Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy looked formidable against the Tigers. pic.twitter.com/RZ7qoVVrbG

— AFL (@AFL) March 6, 2023

Melbourne kicks off the season with a mixed run of games, facing off against strong sides in the form of the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Sydney, before facing potential strugglers West Coast and Essendon. 

Should the Dees negotiate a tricky opening couple of weeks, then this is a team that could go undefeated for a long time and increase their percentage on our model as we go deeper into the season.

Can Three Brisbane Recruits Put Them Into Premiership Contention?

The Lions were dominant in their pre-season hit-out, controlling the game against an undermanned Cats side from the outset.

Excitement around the Lions is based on their off-season recruitment, adding Josh Dunkley, Jack Gunston, Conor McKenna and highly touted draftee Will Ashcroft to a team that made the preliminary finals in 2022.

The established stars like Lachie Neale (31 disposals, six clearances) and Hugh McCluggage (26 disposals, ten clearances) were standouts, showcasing just how good the Lions can be in 2023.

Lachie Neale made this look way too easy 😯 pic.twitter.com/xychhb0UHB

— AFL (@AFL) March 2, 2023

The most encouraging aspect of the Lions' charge towards September in 2023 without doubt is the sight of a fully fit Joe Daniher, who was able to play 85% of the match and finish with 17 disposals, seven marks, seven inside 50s and two goals. 

It will be up to the star key forward to work higher up the ground to replace Dan McStay and use his long-ranging kicks to set his teammates up.

The Lions start 2023 with a tough schedule according to our AFL schedule difficulty analysis, with matches against Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood and North Melbourne.

Are the Bulldogs Back in the Mix?

The overall strength of the Western Bulldogs across the park has catapulted them to a different level of contention, no longer struggling to find key defenders or outside run, aspects of their game that had been lacking.

It's hard to read too much into a win over Stats Insider's most likely team to have the most AFL losses in North Melbourne, but the Bulldogs would be encouraged by the way they were able to easily account for their opponents.

The midfield impact of Marcus Bontempelli, Anthony Scott and Tom Liberatore was pronounced, as all three men were all able to get forward and hit the scoreboard, which is encouraging ahead of the 2023 AFL season.

Coach Luke Beveridge will be pleased with the amount of versatility and firepower his side currently possesses, with all of his tall forwards also firing against the Kangaroos, showcasing the Dogs' potency.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)