State of Origin: What NSW need to do to win Game 2
Last updated: Jun 19, 2019, 6:21AM | Published: Jun 18, 2019, 4:24AM
New South Wales went into Game 1 as favourites at Suncorp and significant favourites to win the series. Just 80 minutes later, they became underdogs. Pressure is building and every coaching decision and selection is being now scrutinized with the series on the line.
Lucky for us, Brad Fittler put an axe through his Blues side and gave us plenty to talk about in the build-up to this do-or-die Game 2 in Perth.
There are a couple of things to look at before considering how the Blues might approach Game 2.
The first is perhaps the biggest Origin talking point in recent years.
Letting Go Of Latrell
They were suckers for the moment and it was a gross overreaction at the time, but most of the rugby league 'experts' at one Sydney newspaper called Latrell Mitchell the best player in the game six weeks ago. Now, he's not even of Origin calibre as far as Fittler is concerned.
He's never been the best player in the game, but Mitchell is the number one centre.
When Mitchell is on, there's no other centre that can stop him. He dominated the State of Origin series last year and it was his 26 points, three tries, one try assist, 202 running metres and five tackle breaks against the Tigers in Round 8 that sent the hype train surging too far forward.
However, he's always been prone to quiet and lazy games. Most people that aren't wearing tri-coloured glasses must be able to concede that by now.
With off-field issues contributing to up and down form, Mitchell's ineffective and lacklustre Game 1 of the 2019 series has seen him dumped. If his head isn't right, fair enough. It's one thing nobody away from the Blues camp knows much about.
That doesn't stop the speculation, though.
It doesn't remove the thoughts of Mitchell causing the Queensland defence nightmares on the left edge. James Maloney is a much better fit inside Mitchell than Cody Walker. Maloney is a half that will give Mitchell early ball to wind up and run riot. He would work to positions on the field to get a famously lazy Mitchell into the game whether he wanted to be in it or not.
The Blues are a worse side without Mitchell - even the lazy version.
He produced the results in 2018 alongside Maloney, but the pair don't have the chance to do the same in this one.
Outside of trusting Fittler's judgement for measuring the impact Mitchell's scattered mind may have on the field, there isn't much anybody can say to paint this decision as a positive.
Sending Out Non-Centres
With Mitchell's dumping comes Jack Wighton, and now that Tom Trbojevic is healthy and available for selection, the Blues have ended up with two non-centres playing in the number three and four jerseys.
The centre position is widely considered the most difficult spot on a football field to defend in.
Defenders need to be proactive in their movements and decision making but don't always have the luxury of an inside man to clean up their mistakes. It requires communication and cohesion with the defenders inside. That comes with experience, something neither Wighton or Trbojevic have much of in the centres.
Wighton has played 21 games in the centres at club level. However, he's not played one since Round 23 in 2014. It's not a spot he has much experience and you could argue he's only the fourth-best centre at his club.
Meanwhile, Trbojevic has just four games at club level and three for the Kangaroos in the centres. While Trbojevic has less experience, he's the sort of talent you crowbar into a side and make work. Wighton, on the other hand, isn't of the same calibre.
Trbojevic will cause trouble with the ball in his hands. He's an elite runner and has quick enough hands to put Blake Ferguson into space on his outside. Few question his place in this jumbled Blues side.
It's Wighton under pressure. In for Mitchell and playing out of position, a strong defensive performance can begin to justify his place in the team. He's never going to eclipse Mitchell at his best in attack, but Wighton is active in defence and an effective hit-and-stick tackler. Depending on who Queensland sends his way, Wighton can have an impact by shutting down their space and limiting the ball sent to the prolific Dane Gagai on the wing.
Bench Forward Rotation
Hindsight is 20/20, but everybody could see that the Blues bench rotation was off the mark during Game 1.
Game 1 Forward Rotation
David Klemmer was outstanding for his 149 running metres on 14 runs. He was the only Blues forward putting a dent in the Maroons line. It's no coincidence when he left the field in the 52nd minute never to return, that Queensland put their foot down
and dominated. New South Wales were 8-0 ahead when Klemmer headed to the bench and we know what happened from there.
Replaced by Daniel Saifiti for this one, the two don't compare.
Saifiti has just three games of over 100 running metres in 2019. He's not hit the mark in any of his last five games and his last for the Knights before being selected for the Blues produced 61 metres on eight runs along with seven missed tackles.
This is a mind-boggling selection no matter which way you look at it. There is every chance Saifiti play's the first 20-25 minutes without seeing the field again. Origin build's reputations and Saifiti might be getting hung out to dry here.
With only two genuine props in the squad, there are even more concerns following the ineffective rotation Fittler employed in Game 1.
Jake Trbojevic is an 80-minute forward for his club and can act as the crux of a defence. He managed just 49 minutes in Game 1. Likewise, Tyson Frizell, a nine-game Origin veteran, played only 39 minutes. In their place went Cameron Murray on debut and an out-of-form Angus Crichton.
The turnover on the edges produced the expected results as the two tries the Maroons scored either side of the intercept came out wide with the Blues defence at sixes and sevens.
NRL coaches run fairly standard and repetitive rotations every game. For some reason, those in the box for Origin matches want to change things around and leave their best prop on the bench to "chase the game" as Fittler put it after Game 1.
It's going to be interesting to see how Fittler uses Jake Trbojevic and Dale Finucane, how long Wade Graham plays after just 86 minutes of game time in 2019, and whether or not Murray plays such a lengthy stint this time around.
Increased minutes for Trbojevic wouldn't be a bad thing. A short and sharp stint for Tariq Sims to cause havoc has its benefits too. Perhaps Graham moves in a little closer than he's used to and uses his offload to promote second-phase and open up space for Tedesco in the middle when the Queensland forwards begin to tire.
The option for a prop isn't on Fittler's bench, but he can go a few ways depending on how the game is placed and when.
Adjustments For Game 2
So, the adjustments to the team list are jaw-droppers.
The best centre in the game has been punted, a decidedly average prop replaces one that has been at the forefront of everything the Blues have achieved over the last two years, and an already weird rotation looks set to get weirder with the selections on the bench.
Freddy has a plan, though.
The Queensland defence is smothering in the middle. New South Wales tried to go straight through it in Game 1 and failed. The one-out hitups were eaten up and they couldn't get out of their own end to apply pressure in the second half.
Maloney's inclusion and the makeup of the bench gives an indication of how the Blues might change things in Game 2.
With three edge backrowers along with Dale Finucane on the bench, we can anticipate the Blues sending the ball out wide earlier. Rather than the one-out plays from dummy half, the C and D defenders, away from the rushing markers and A defenders, could be where Fitler and the Blues try to get up the field.
Better equipped to act as a link and simply direct traffic than Walker, this game is made for Maloney and his wise head. He can get in close, engage the line and send it out to the plethora of edge players the Blues are running out with on Sunday. Take the Queensland defence out to the edges and open them up in the middle for Damien Cook and James Tedesco to go wild.
We didn't see much of it in Game 1, but exposing tired and slow A defenders in the middle of the field is where the Blues really dominated and created points in 2018.
Josh McGuire - and it's not the only time he was caught out in this series - was slow getting back here after the quick play-the-ball. Cook spies the opportunity to dart out of dummy half and Tedesco ends up over the line via Maloney.
The Blues don't have the bodies to crash and bash in the middle with the Maroons, but they can use that to their advantage. So long as the back three start their sets well, the Blues can use the extra mobility to get on the outside of Queensland's swarming defence.
Blake Ferguson has been recalled to provide some of that push through the middle to start sets. The enthusiasm and expected willingness to produce tough carries out of their own end is where Wighton and Trbojevic can make their mark.
It's difficult to justify how Saifiti fits into all of this, but there is hope for the Blues in Game 2.
The selections have people questioning Fittler and rightly so. But it's Origin. He only needs this group to perform overs for 80 minutes before heading to a decider in Sydney where anything can happen.
The Stats Insider State of Origin model can't separate the two sides at the moment, so maybe Fittler is playing chess while we're all playing checkers at home?
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