It's another "biggest Origin ever" on Wednesday night.

A decider that will either announce a Blues dynasty with back-to-back series wins or end it with a Maroons upset victory.

All the pressure is on New South Wales heading into the decider. They're significant favourites and have been all series. Playing at home coming off the 32-point Game 2 victory, the expectation is that they once again win it comfortably.

But nothing is ever certain in Origin.

The closest thing to certain might be Queensland winning series-deciding matches. They've won each of the last seven and 13 of the 19 in Origin history (two draws).

They've got a lot of work to do if they're to continue that trend, though.

Where It Went Wrong

To win Game 3, Queensland first needs to highlight what went wrong in Game 2.

The lid doesn't stay on the highlighter long when you lose 38-6.

First and foremost, the Maroons can't afford to come out as flat as they did in Game 2. It's remarkable that in a massive game with the series on the line Queensland could start a game half-heartedly, but that's what they did with Cameron Munster confirming as much at halftime:

"They just wanted it more than us in that first half. They tackled harder and ran harder than us, so that's something we need to address in the second half."

From there, the Maroons went on to lose the yardage battle by a whopping 837 running metres. Managing just 1,108 metres to the Blues 1,945 metres, the Maroons were hammered through the middle of the field and couldn't recover. This with the best prop in New South Wales, David Klemmer, sat in the stands with a broken hand.

Johnathan Thurston raised a salient point on the centre-third too:

"The stat for me, while it was wet, was total passes between the two sides. The Blues had 231 and Queensland had 176, so they backed their skill set even though it was wet."

Further to Thurston's comments, Queensland registered 75 hitups on the night. While it's four fewer than New South Wales' 79 hitups, the Blues ran the ball an extra 42 times in total.

Sure, Queensland got themselves in trouble early. They didn't seem to change the gameplan, though. It remained one-out and one-dimensional which only works - like it did in Game 1 - when the opposing side is consistently on the back foot.

New South Wales, however, shifted the ball. They used the plethora of backrowers and a ball-playing prop in Jake Trbojevic to get the ball to the edges and force Queensland to chase them. 

To put Trbojevic's influence as a ball-player into perspective, he registered 12 passes after starting at prop in Game 2. Queensland's starting props have completed 12 passes in their last seven games combined.

As a result of the extra ball movement which only resulted in one extra Blues error, the Maroons missed 39 tackles and conceded six line breaks. The rain didn't help, but when the Blues only miss 22 tackles and concede just one line break, it's difficult to place too much of the blame on slippery conditions.

The Maroons played traditional Origin footy, but that's not enough if you don't win the arm-wrestle early. Their lack of adjustments then caused the scoreboard to blowout without response.

Adjustments For Game 3

The Spine

It's difficult to wrap your head around what the Maroons need to do for Game 3 when they might not even know themselves.

Kalyn Ponga's injury has thrown a spanner in the works.

The spine has been forced into another reshuffle, and worse yet, will quite likely be switched during the game as well.

With Cameron Munster named at fullback before kickoff, Queensland won't lose anything at the fullback position. If anything, they may even improve in the number one jersey. Munster, despite not playing there since Round 1 in 2018, is one of the best fullbacks in the game.

No matter where he plays, Munster will have a licence to roam, use his running game, and call on his ball-playing to open up space for those on his outside. The problem is the lack of space that may arise on his favoured left side.

Corey Norman will wear the number six jersey and make his debut on the left side. With Daly Cherry-Evans on the right, the expectation is Norman sticks to the typical channels on the left as Queensland adopt a classic split halves pairing. Michael Morgan completes the Queensland left side attack. Another player that excels as a ball-player when they're running with the football.

That's three players all with a similar style to their game occupying one side of the field.

Ponga spent time drifting to the right side in Game 1 and 2 - something Munster will need to do regularly if the Maroons are to avoid becoming too congested on the left.

As has been the case for most of the series so far, there are plenty of questions surrounding the Queensland spine. 

The Pack

Dylan Napa and Jarrod Wallace have been punted for the returning Joe Ofahengaue and debutant, Christian Welch. 

Ofahengaue has recovered from his injury to start in the front row. Running for 99 metres in Game 1 on debut, Joe O was one of Queensland's best in a dominant performance through the middle.

Making his debut in Game 3, Welch replaces Wallace on the bench. It's hoped that Welch fills the role Wallace has largely failed in throughout his six Origin performances. He's a hard-worker and prepared to take the tough carries. Per NRL.com's Telstra Tracker, Welch averages the most metres per minute of the ten middle forwards running out for Game 3. The lull Queensland have suffered towards the back-end of the first half has been addressed and Welch is the man to improve it. 

Outside of the new faces in the middle, Queensland should look to move further away from the ruck. Josh McGuire, in particular, can play a role here with his ability as a ball-player. He's spent time at hooker and can throw a pass. In this scenario, McGuire simply needs to shift the ball away and have Queensland's big bodies hitting the C defender more often. Attempt to open up the middle and give Munster space to have an impact on his feet. Ben Hunt can have an influence here with a few Cameron Smith-like longer passes from behind the ruck, too.

Most of all, Queensland need to get into the arm-wrestle early. They don't have the players on the edges or the dummy half in Hunt to play the same expansive footy New South Wales do. 

They can, however, bend the line through the middle, pin the Blues in their own end, and force them to work their way out. Put that expansive and pass-heavy style under pressure and produce errors.

Queensland only won the yardage battle by 59 metres in Game 1, but it's all they need. 

The Verdict

With what we saw in Game 2 and the potential for New South Wales to improve with Klemmer and Mitchel Pearce joining the side, the Stats Insider Model is justifiably heavy on the Blues.

It's all going to need to go right for the Maroons early if they're to find a way to cause an upset. The crowd will lift the Blues to start, but could work against them should early pressure produce points for the Maroons.

With so much of Queensland's attacking power sitting on the left side, going right to start might be the best option. Jack Wighton hasn't been put under a lot of pressure this series. However, he's shown a tendency to be somewhat vulnerable in defence on Canberra's edge at times this year. If Cherry-Evans and Munster can give this relatively untested Blues left side defence some problems early, they could begin to build towards an upset.

Kevin Walters blasted his side for the lack of intensity from the kickoff in Game 2. That's where it starts for Queensland in Game 3. The intensity translates into a grind, and the grind is where the Maroons are best positioned to win the series.

It won't be long into the game before we know which Queensland side has turned up to ANZ Stadium for this one. 

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