What You Need to Know Ahead of the 2023 Brownlow Medal

Ahead of the 2023 edition of the AFL's most prestigious award, Stats Insider has released its comprehensive Brownlow Medal report.

This year is expected to witness one of the tightest counts in recent history. Drawing from data across every single game of the 2023 AFL home and away season, Stats Insider offers data-driven predictions for how the votes might be distributed over all 24 rounds.

In addition to detailing the most likely candidates to win the Brownlow Medal, the report provides insights into who might lead the count after Rounds 5 and 10. It also offers probabilities for the top three, five, and ten players. Renowned for its thoroughness, Stats Insider's Brownlow Medal report is among the most comprehensive on the market.

Download Stats Insider's 2023 Brownlow Medal report by clicking here.

Here are the five takeaways from Stats Insider's 2023 Brownlow Medal report you need to know heading into this year's count:

Nick Daicos Is the Most Likely 2023 AFL Brownlow Medal Winner

Collingwood's second-year superstar, Nick Daicos, is Stats Insider's most probable player to win the 2023 Brownlow Medal.

Daicos has a 36% probability of clinching the 2023 AFL Brownlow Medal.

Despite missing the final three games of the season through injury, Daicos is expected to have polled enough votes to fend off late challenges from the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Zak Butters, and Lachie Neale.

Marcus Bontempelli Is Only Expected to Poll Three Votes Once in the Final Five Games

Western Bulldogs' superstar, Marcus Bontempelli, became the outright favourite on Betfair Exchange following Nick Daicos' injury, which ruled him out for the remainder of the 2023 AFL home and away season. Unfortunately for Bontempelli, he didn't capitalise, according to the Brownlow Report.

Bontempelli is only anticipated to poll a maximum of three votes once in the final five games of the season, a 27 disposal, three-goal effort against Richmond in Round 21.

Ineligible Caleb Serong Is Likely to Finish Top 5

It was a less than stellar season for Fremantle, but most Dockers fans will be pleased with the output of first-time All Australian, Caleb Serong, in 2023.

While Stats Insider's Brownlow Medal predictor doesn't anticipate that Serong will top the count by the end of the night, don't be surprised to see the dynamic Docker's name near the top end of the leaderboard by Round 24.

The Brownlow Medal report places Caleb Serong with a 58.6% chance of finishing inside the Top 5, signifying he's more likely to finish inside the top five than miss out.

Collingwood Is Expected to Poll the Most Brownlow Medal Team Votes

The 2023 home and away season was a triumphant campaign for Collingwood, culminating in the minor premiership.

Given the strength of their season, it's unsurprising that the Brownlow Medal report predicts the Magpies to poll the most votes for a team across the entire count. However, punters can still find value on the Betfair Exchange on the Pies at $1.70.

Collingwood is projected to poll 90.1 votes, just edging out Melbourne at 89, Port Adelaide at 85.4, and Brisbane at 84.7.

Team Winners Across The 2023 Brownlow Medal

Stats Insider has compiled a comprehensive list of each team's most likely player to top the Brownlow Medal count by the end of the tally.

Refer to the table below to see which players the Stats Insider Brownlow Medal report expects to lead the Brownlow Medal count for their respective teams.