What's behind the Bombers' nose dive?

For an extraordinarily long period of recent history, Essendon has been a footballing irrelevance.

Sure. Events off the field captured the country’s imagination, it's ridicule, fury and tears, but in terms of what the club has actually delivered on the football field, it really has been one elongated period of 'nothing to see here.'

Not winning an AFL Final since 2004 - and not appearing in a Preliminary Final since 2001 -has ensured that when it comes to assessments and conversation regarding genuine Premiership aspirants, the Bombers' name rarely comes up.

For the best part of the last 15 years, Essendon fans have had to endure the experience of watching other clubs playing in September, searching for their next Kevin Sheedy and watching the construction of an enormous Cape Canaveral-like space centre in Tullamarine, where $20 guided tours are available for members.

The Essendon fall from grace has been as long-winded as it’s been astonishing.

In the 26-season period between 1979 and 2004, the Bombers missed the VFL/AFL Finals just six times. They appeared in seven Grand Finals during that span and won themselves four Premierships. Few clubs the world over can rival that kind of competitive longevity, with Sheedy coaching the club for all but one of those Finals speaking to a rather exemplary display of club continuity and stability.

Since 2004, however, they’ve appeared in a total of four AFL Finals matches, losing all four by an average of 59 points. In the last 10 years, no less than six different coaches have overseen the club. 

To denigrate Essendon from both a drugs scandal - and on-field results - context is low hanging fruit from an opposition fan's perspective, what is worthy of enquiry is just how and where things have gone so horribly wrong for a club with such a genuinely admirable and successful history.

How is it that the Bombers, a one-time model of excellence have slipped so far as to become a competitive afterthought?

For mine, it starts with Essendon’s inability to appropriately evaluate themselves as a club in the context of an evolving and competitive professional football league, in addition to what I like to refer to as their 'couch potato approach' to list management.

The Bombers see nice things in the shop window and decide they must have them.

From Jake Stringer to Adam Saad, Devon Smith to Dylan Shiel, Essendon haven’t thought twice about handing over a truckload of draft capital while simultaneously squeezing their salary cap pimple to the brink of eruption in the pursuit of right-now contention.

The problem is they aren’t close to genuine contention.

While the moves in a vacuum are by no means terrible - all of these acquired players are indeed either good-to-excellent AFL players - what the club seems allergic to is deep, cold-blooded introspection. 

The type of which doesn’t dabble in delusion and deception.

At Essendon, it’s as though they look in the mirror and see Antonio Banderas, when the rest of the world sees Alf Stewart.

That’s a big problem. A really big problem.

It’s baffling as to how they’ve come to see this Banderas apparition as there’s little evidence over the last few seasons to suggest they’re on the cusp of competing with the big boys again.  

Essendon’s record against AFL Finals teams:

2016: 0W - 9L

2017: 3W - 5L

2018: 4W - 6L

Perhaps Essendon fell in love with a small sample of data and in their desperation to return to their glory days, decided a come-what-may shopping spree could fast track their path to success, rather than something more organic and meaningful, which, in theory may take longer, would promise something more enduring, assuming they did it the right way.

Essendon started last season in similar fashion, losing six of their first eight games, and in such a demoralizing fashion that for the first time, genuine questions were being asked both of coach John Worsfold and the calibre of the list at large. What followed was an 8W - 2L stretch which did nothing more than keep the wolves at bay, when perhaps the best thing would have been to let those predators in to remove the weak links. 

Instead, the Bombers saw their 8-2 stretch as proof that Worsfold was the right man for the job, while only solidifying their quixotic pursuit of more star power.

It’s at this point Essendon fans don’t need a reminder that their first round pick in November’s 2019 AFL Draft belongs to the GWS Giants.

The Bombers season may well be able to be resuscitated. After all, 2019 is just two rounds old, while the club could even find success in September to end their AFL Finals drought. The odds however are stacked strongly against them, with a high likelihood that Finals will once again elude them. 

If that outcome was to eventuate then it would surely be time for Essendon to embrace their inner Alf Stewart, put the credit card away and accept that there are simply no more shortcuts to meaningful contention in this league. 

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