What's Cooper Cronk Worth to the Roosters?

The Sydney Roosters' chance of success in Sunday's NRL Grand Final has been dealt a potentially critical blow with the injury to star halfback, Cooper Cronk. 

Cronk suffered significant damage to his rotator cuff in Saturday’s Preliminary Final win over South Sydney and is now highly unlikely to make it onto the field against his former side.

So just how much impact can one injury have on a team though? Is it the difference between victory and defeat? Well, Stats Insider ran the numbers and here are the results according to our Value Summary:

Editor's note: data is taken as of 2pm, Monday September 24th. Our models are constantly updating and are subject to change.

With Cronk:

Sydney Roosters 21-19 Melbourne Storm
53% chance of victory - +6% difference (Green Smiley)
53% chance of covering line - +10% difference (Green Smiley)
63% chance of going Over 32.5 - +13% difference (Green Smiley)

Without Cronk:

Sydney Roosters 19-18 Melbourne Storm
53% chance of victory - +5% difference (Orange Smiley)
53% chance of covering line - +3% difference (No Smiley)
58% chance of going Over 32.5 - +8% difference (Green Smiley)

Cronk's absence is worth a full two points to the Roosters, and in such a tight 19-18 scoreline (without him) it may be the difference between victory and defeat. It also completely changes the nature of the Green and Orange Smileys on offer from Stats Insider's Value Summary, changing from three Greens to a singular Green Smiley and one Orange Smiley.

The former Storm halfback is as tough as they come and put his body on the line repeatedly after getting injured on Saturday, but this injury might be too much to overcome for him to play this weekend.

The only question now - is it too much for the Roosters to overcome too?

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