Where Are NRL Teams Conceding Tries As We Approach Finals?

Aug 10, 2021, 6:26AM

Defence has always been a key ingredient of the premiership-winning formula.

Only one team has finished the regular season outside the top three and gone on to win the premiership since 2006. This year, the Penrith Panthers, Melbourne Storm and Parramatta Eels occupy the top three spots. The Panthers, in particular, have set a new standard in defence when their team is at full-strength.

It's not all good news around the NRL, though. The bad teams are worse than ever, and it starts with their poor defence.

With that in mind, let's take a tour of the competition and see where each team is leaking their points through 21 rounds of the season.

Brisbane Broncos

Try Locations: Left - 34%, Middle 28%, Right 38%

It has gone from bad to worse for the Broncos since Round 12. Conceding 27.8 points per game across the first 11 rounds of the season, that number is up to 30.3 points per game.

Although, their right edge which conceded 42% of their points throughout those first 11 rounds has improved despite the turnover in faces filling the positions. Just 38% of Brisbane's tries now come through that side of the field with Tyson Gamble's energy and aggression playing a big part in that.

While the improvements down the right edge are encouraging, the 29 tries Brisbane have conceded through the middle (second-most in the NRL) highlights how much more work they still have to do on the defensive end.

Canberra Raiders

Try Locations: Left - 31%, Middle 20%, Right 48%

While the Raiders have been beyond disappointing with the ball this season, their defence hasn't helped matters. They had built a reputation as a tough side in recent years. The poor periods which plagued them were no longer and they often kept a lid on the best-attacking teams in the competition. This year, their 23.9 points conceded per game is only good for 8th in the NRL.

The right edge is a major issue. A lack of cohesion has contributed to the Raiders allowing 40 of the 83 tries they've conceded this year to come through the right edge. Curtis Scott started the season on the right flank before another off-field incident rubbed him out. Sebastian Kris has spent time on the right side but has struggled defensively with Matt Timoko replacing him for Round 21. Harvey Smith-Shield's has been forced onto the right wing and been repeatedly exposed defending in a new position in recent weeks.

It's an area opposing teams will target for the rest of this season.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Try Locations: Left - 36%, Middle 29%, Right 36%

The Bulldogs play with the worst defence in the NRL so it's rather fitting that they split that poor defence evenly across the field with the left and right sides both conceding 38 tries each.

Meanwhile, the 31 tries the Bulldogs have allowed through the middle is the most in the NRL.

A genuine lack of quality has been exacerbated by a regular rotation of players in the middle of the field. Whether it be through injury, suspension or selection, Trent Barrett has named too many combinations of middle and edge forwards and it shows in their NRL-worst 31.4 points conceded per game.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Try Locations: Left - 46%, Middle 29%, Right 25%

The wheels have started to fall off the Sharks. While Shaun Johnson's absence has hurt their attack in recent weeks, it's the middle defence that has seen the Sharks fall out of the Top 8.

Conceding just 20% of their tries in the centre third across the first 11 rounds, that number has blown out to 29% after Round 21.

Briton Nikora, Aiden Tolman and Toby Rudolf - three of Cronulla's most consistently named forwards - have all registered nine try causes each this season per Fox Sports Lab. Once a team known for their grit and grind approach, the Sharks middle has made it too easy for the opposition in recent weeks.

Gold Coast Titans

Try Locations: Left - 44%, Middle 23%, Right 25%

Too much is being made of David Fifita's move to the right edge when the Titans have conceded just 12.4 points per game in their last five matches.

While they have played the Dragons, Bulldogs and Cowboys in that time, this is a side that gave up 20 points to the Bulldogs earlier in the year while allowing the Broncos to score 52 points across their two head-to-head encounters.

Still 11th in defence conceding 24.9 points per game overall, the Titans are on the right track and could yet finish the season in the top half of the NRL on the defensive side of the ball.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Try Locations: Left - 38%, Middle 27%, Right 35%

The Sea Eagles put in an inspired performance against the Storm in Round 21 to give life to the idea that the 2021 NRL premiership isn't a one-horse race.

With Tom Trbojevic in this sort of form, the Sea Eagles absolutely have the ability in attack to trouble the premiership contenders. It's in defence that they're behind.

Only one team has won the premiership with a defence outside the top three since 2006. Currently 6th in defence conceding 21.4 points per game, the Sea Eagles have a lot of work to do if they're to match the Panthers (11.8 points conceded per game) and Storm (12.1ppg) without the ball.

Melbourne Storm

Try Locations: Left - 29%, Middle 20%, Right 51%

Just for a change, the Storm are towards the top of the NRL in defence this season. Only a historically good Panthers side concedes fewer than the Storm's 12.1 points per game.

It's a remarkable accomplishment when you consider how many players have moved in and out of the team throughout the year. Dale Finucane, Harry Grant, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Felise Kaufusi, Kenny Bromwich and Christian Welch - all key figures in their middle defence - have missed periods throughout the year. Still, the Storm defend at a premiership-winning level and may yet further improve as those players return to the field.

It's in the middle where they are so strong. With only nine tries conceded in the middle all year, Melbourne forces teams to go around them. Very few are successful.

Newcastle Knights

Try Locations: Left - 35%, Middle 18%, Right 47%

The Knights have shaved two points conceded per game off their total since Round 12 to allow 24.6 through them through 21 rounds.

Unsurprisingly, the return of key attacking players has helped their defence. Likewise, the signing of Jake Clifford has provided the Knights with a consistent 5th-tackle kicker to either kick them out of trouble or put pressure on the opposition.

The right edge is still a concern. Only the Cowboys have allowed more points through their right edge than the Knights. It's still a target for the opposition and will be one area that makes or breaks their Top 8 push.

North Queensland Cowboys

Try Locations: Left 35%, Middle 18%, Right 47%

The Cowboys have conceded a whopping 52 tries down their right edge this season.

It's the most tries allowed by any club in any area of the field.

Kyle Feldt is second on the list of try causes with 25 in 17 games. Worryingly, Valentine Holmes (24) and Scott Drinkwater (22) also occupy the top five on the list.

After bouncing back from a poor start to the season to be 7th on the NRL ladder after Round 14, the Cowboys have since conceded 33.8 points per game across an eight-game losing streak.

Todd Payten is looking for more punch in their attack by putting Jason Taumalolo on the edge. What the Tongan adds with the ball out wide will be for nothing if the Cowboys can't clean up their act in defence.

Parramatta Eels

Try Locations: Left - 34%, Middle 17%, Right 49%

The Sea Eagles had just ripped through the Eels right edge to score five tries in a convincing 28-6 win the last time we checked in on NRL defences. While Waqa Blake has since been shifted to the other side of the field, Parramatta's proportion of tries conceded has still risen on the right edge from 47% to 49% since Round 12.

A favourable draw to start the season papered over the Parramatta cracks. Their attack is being pulled to pieces in post-match conversations, but the 28 points and 40 points they've leaked to the Roosters and Rabbitohs over the last fortnight is just as much of a concern. Finally faced with the top attacking teams in the competition, the Parramatta defence has folded.

It's all looking a little bit too familiar for the Eels at the moment. The right edge was a key talking point before Round 1 this season after allowing 48% of their tries through that channel in 2020. It remains a major issue as finals approach in 2021.

Penrith Panthers

Try Locations: Left - 32%, Middle 37%, Right 32%

The Penrith Panthers conceded just 10.3 points per game throughout the first 18 rounds of the season - the fewest points conceded at that point of a season in NRL history.

While that number has jumped out to 11.8 points per game through 21 rounds, the Panthers are still on track for a top three defence.

*Top 20 defences since 1998 (Premiers in yellow)

Injuries to key players have been the major cause of Penrith's struggles in defence.

Isaah Yeo, Api Koroisau and James Fisher-Harris are all key defensive figures. Meanwhile, the pressure Nathan Cleary builds through his game management and 15 forced dropouts in 12 games this season has been sorely missed since Round 15.

Melbourne have taken over as premiership favourites, but Penrith's defence will soon be back to its best and bring them back into the picture.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Try Locations: Left - 27%, Middle 26%, Right 47%

The Rabbitohs conceded 22.9 points per game and allowed 50 points to be put on them twice throughout the first 11 rounds of the season.

"Something is wrong at Souths on the defensive side of the ball and it needs to be fixed. Fast." - How Teams Are Structuring Their Defence In 2021 (After Round 11)

Since then, Souths have conceded just 15.7 points per game while winning nine games on the trot. They're still a step or two behind the Storm and Panthers defensively. However, the 41.9 points scored per game during the winning streak keeps them in the premiership conversation.

South Sydney's right edge is an issue. Although, Campbell Graham and Josh Mansour should spend some time together on that side of the field before finals footy kicks off.

St. George-Illawarra Dragons

Try Locations: Left - 35%, Middle 26%, Right 40%

The Dragons falling out of the Top 8 was bound to happen eventually. Even without seeing 12 of their players suspended across four rounds, the Red V were lucky to stay in the top of the ladder for as long as they did. Their 24.2 points conceded per game currently has them 9th in defence but the inconsistency at which they have turned up on that side of the ball has hurt them.

As is so often the case with poor defensive teams, cohesion is a theme here. The Dragons haven't named the same fullback in back-to-back weeks since Matt Dufty ran out in Round 13 and 14. Similarly, the wing and centre positions have been a turnstile both on the field and on Tuesdays when the team is named.

The Dragons are still in the hunt for a finals spot, but their diminishing defence still needs to play out the third-hardest remaining draw through to Round 25.

Sydney Roosters

Try Locations: Left - 23%, Middle 27%, Right 50%

The Roosters seem to lose somebody to injury or suspension every week. Those injuries often occur mid-game and force a reshuffle, adding more difficulty to an already challenging task given the different combinations they have been forced to defend with this season. Still, the Roosters defence ranks 4th in the NRL conceding a remarkable 18.9 points per game.

While conceding 50% of their tries down the right side stands out here, only six teams have allowed more tries down that side of the field than the Roosters' 32. Sam Walker defending on that side is a contributor but not unexpected given his size and inexperience.

The Chooks will always find ways to score points. How they defend will determine when their season ends in 2021.

New Zealand Warriors

Try Locations: Left - 35%, Middle 24%, Right 41%

For the second season in a row, the Warriors are responding to having their backs against the wall.

As injuries and suspensions decimate the side while they also deal with the departure of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, the Warriors have responded with back-to-back wins conceding just 18 points per game. The two W's do follow an awful 60-22 thrashing at the hands of the Rabbitohs in Round 19. Still, the Warriors are proving to themselves that they are capable of recapturing the defensive intensity that started to show itself towards the back end of 2020.

Nathan Brown has already conceded that playing finals footy is all but out of the question. He needs to ensure the squad keeps up this effort in defence, though.

Wests Tigers

Try Locations: Left - 38%, Middle 21%, Right 42%

The Wests Tigers have conceded 29 points per game to play with the fourth-worst defence in the NRL this season. The 41 tries they have allowed through their left edge is the most of any team down that side of the field in the NRL.

While the numbers tell the story well already, the eye test is most concerning. The Tigers don't look like a team that is interested in defence. At least, they're not completing the one-percenters that the likes of the Storm and Panthers do across the full 80 minutes.

A one-dimensional and immobile forward pack with the ball has also translated into a defence offering little inside pressure on ball players. It puts immense pressure on their edges who have consistently failed to keep the opposition from scoring. Natural talent has seen the Tigers pile up points at times this season, but a lack of team defence has ultimately let them down more often than not.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.