Where the 2022 Brownlow Medal Was Won and Lost

In one of the most thrilling Brownlow Medal counts in AFL history, Carlton's Patrick Cripps polled maximum votes in the last round of the season to win the 2022 award.

However, there are 23 rounds in an AFL season, and the votes from each round determine the final Brownlow Medal standings.

Thanks to Stats Insider's predictive analytics model, which provided expected votes for every game throughout the 2022 AFL season, we can see which games each of the top chances polled both above and below expectations in the Brownlow Medal.

Let's start by looking at the winner, Patrick Cripps, and how and where he ultimately won (and nearly lost) the 2022 Brownlow Medal count.

MORE: AFL Grand Final Tips and Predictions

Patrick Cripps (Carlton)

Round 1

• Expected votes: 2.6
• Actual votes: 1

Back in March, when Carlton kicked off its season with a win over Richmond, most people had pencilled Cripps in for three votes thanks to his 30 disposals and three goals. Our model had Cripps as a 70% chance of receiving three votes. He polled one. 

Instead, it was Adam Cerra (5% probability) with three votes, while Matthew Kennedy received two. Luckily for Cripps, he got those votes back later in the count.

Round 14

• Expected votes: 0.2
• Actual votes: 2

Lachie Neale was projected as the most likely winner of the count at this point, but Cripps surprised many by earning two votes against Richmond after having an average of 0.2 votes in our simulations.

Dion Prestia rightfully polled three votes (75% probability), while Cripps picked up two despite recording 10 clangers in Carlton's 15-point loss to the Tigers.

Cripps did manage to have 34 disposals and five tackles though, which was apparently enough for the umpires to notice the Carlton captain.

Could we get a tie for the #Brownlow?

Our projections have Lachie Neale minimally ahead of Oliver and Cripps after Round 13. pic.twitter.com/opLhz5EPsf

— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) September 18, 2022

Round 20

• Expected votes: 1.4
• Actual votes: 3

It was Round 20 that saw Cripps punters rejoice. With 41 disposals and six tackles, he earned three votes on what was otherwise a disappointing night for his team.

Carlton went down to Adelaide by 29 points, with our model rating both Ben Keays and Brodie Smith as more likely to poll three votes than Cripps. 

With the Cripps polling 1.6 more votes than expected in this game, his win probability jumped to 93% with three rounds remaining.

Lachie Neale (Brisbane)

Round 16

• Expected votes: 0.9
• Actual votes: 3

The pre-count favourite according to both BlueBet and Stats Insider's projections, Brisbane's Lachie Neale had a big Round 16, with the midfielder polling three votes despite being ranked as the third-best player on the ground by our data.

Neale's 33 disposals and one goal were enough to beat Charlie Cameron (69% probability) and Keidan Coleman (10%) to three votes as Brisbane defeated the Western Bulldogs by 41 points.

Our projections have Lachie Neale and Patrick Cripps leading the pack to win the #Brownlow after Round 17. pic.twitter.com/EVr9wzcfu0

— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) September 18, 2022

Round 19

• Expected votes: 1.3
• Actual votes: 0

Round 19 changed everything for Neale as despite having the second-best chance (17%) to poll three votes when his side defeated Gold Coast, his 32 touches were not enough to catch the umpires' attention.

When Cripps polled 1.6 more votes than expected in Round 20, the top two switched places in terms of overall chances of winning the 2022 Brownlow Medal.

Touk Miller (Gold Coast)

Round 9

• Expected votes: 2.6
• Actual votes: 2

Gold Coast's Touk Miller was one of the main Brownlow Medal contenders who polled better than expected in 2022, finishing 5.7 votes ahead of our projections.

Miller under-polled in a relatively small number of games, with Gold Coast's Round 9 win over Fremantle serving as an example.

The Suns skipper had a 69% chance of getting three votes based on his 34 disposals, but Mabior Chol (11%), who surprised many with his four-goal performance, was the one to do so.

Round 15

• Expected votes: 0.8
• Actual votes: 2

Round 15 saw Gold Coast lose to Port Adelaide by two points, with Connor Rozee (24 disposals, two goals) under-polling for Port while Miller over-polled.

Our model predicted that Rozee had a 62% chance of getting three votes, while Miller's average vote in our simulations was only 0.8.

But in the end, Karl Amon of Port (26 disposals) received three votes, followed by Miller and Rozee with two and one votes, respectively.

Round 22

• Expected votes: 0.8
• Actual votes: 2

Gold Coast's penultimate game of the season saw Miller poll two votes in a loss once again, with his 36 disposals enough to beat out strong performances from several Geelong players.

Jeremy Cameron (60% probability) polled three votes, while Miller edged out the Cats' Mark Blicavs (27 disposals, two goals), Cameron Guthrie (30 disposals, one goal), and Brandon Parfitt (28 disposals, two goals) for two votes.

With Miller polling 2.4 more votes than expected in Rounds 15 and 22, he was able to jump into the top three overall and poll the most votes in a season by a Gold Coast player, edging out Gary Ablett's 28 votes in his 2013 win.

Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle)

Round 3

• Expected votes: 0.8
• Actual votes: 2

Plenty of Fremantle players were in the running for votes after the Dockers' resounding win over West Coast in Round 3, but it was Brayshaw's 26 touches that secured him two votes from the umpires.

Shannon Hurn (27 disposals), Jeremy McGovern (21 disposals), and Heath Chapman (23 disposals) were edged out by Brayshaw for two votes, while Lachie Schultz (69% probability) received three votes.

Round 6

• Expected votes: 1.6
• Actual votes: 0

After gaining ground in the first five rounds and being projected to receive just one vote less than the predicted Brownlow Medal winner, Brayshaw fell down the rankings in Round 6 with his 27-disposal game not enough to earn any votes against Carlton.

Our model rated Brayshaw as the second-best chance to poll three (behind Cripps), but it was his team-mates in Rory Lobb (14 disposals, three goals) and Alex Pearce (nine disposals) that polled instead.

After five rounds, Lachie Neale is our projected winner of the #Brownlow, with his fair odds currently at $3.37.

Clayton Oliver's fair odds are $3.80, whilst Andrew Brayshaw's are $6.05. pic.twitter.com/LuMRmwhaWE

— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) September 18, 2022

Round 16

• Expected votes: 0.5
• Actual votes: 0

Brayshaw had a chance to poll in Round 16, with 27 disposals and a goal in Fremantle's Round 16 win over Port Adelaide.

But despite his impressive stats, Brayshaw failed to poll in this game, with James Aish (29 disposals, two goals) taking out the maximum votes, all but ending the AFLPA MVP's chances of winning the 2022 AFL Brownlow Medal.

Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)

Round 9

• Expected votes: 0.8
• Actual votes: 0

Seven rounds into the count, Melbourne's Clayton Oliver was projected as the most likely winner of the Brownlow, with Round 9 ending his run of four straight games of polling more than projected.

With Christian Petracca (73% probability) polling three votes as predicted in Round 9, the two and one votes were open to many Melbourne players, with our model unable to split Kysaiah Pickett, Tom McDonald, and Oliver.

But it was the former two that took the votes, with Oliver's 29 disposals not enough to poll in Melbourne's win over West Coast.

After seven rounds, Melbourne's Clayton Oliver is our projected winner of the #Brownlow in a very tight race. pic.twitter.com/YdMzgZifKY

— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) September 18, 2022

Round 15

• Expected votes: 1.2
• Actual votes: 0

Melbourne's Round 15 win over Brisbane was the biggest dent to Oliver's chances, with the midfielder failing to poll a single vote despite being projected as the second-most likely to get three.

Although Oliver finished the game with 35 disposals, the umpires opted to give votes to Jack Viney (34 disposals), Luke Jackson (21 disposals, one goal), and Jake Lever (20 disposals).

Round 21

• Expected votes: 0.7
• Actual votes: 3

Heading into the final three rounds of the season, Patrick Cripps' win probability had increased to 93%, but Oliver was still not done.

Despite having the fourth-best chance of getting three votes, Oliver was named best on ground by the umpires, even with Melbourne losing to Collingwood.

The Melbourne midfielder had 42 disposals, which was enough to grab the attention of the umpires over Collingwood's Jamie Elliott (13 disposals, four goals) and Nick Daicos (31 disposals).

Christian Petracca (Melbourne)

Round 7

• Expected votes: 0.9
• Actual votes: 0

Christian Petracca started the count in good fashion, polling more than expected in four of the first six games, before back-to-back matches of under-polling in Rounds 7 and 8.

Round 7 saw Melbourne defeat Hawthorn, with Petracca rated as the third-best player on the field according to our model.

However, Max Gawn (29 disposals, two goals), Clayton Oliver (33 disposals), and James Sicily (26 disposals) were the players to poll in this one, while Petracca's 31 disposals and one goal were not enough for him to do so.

Round 23

• Expected votes: 0.9
• Actual votes: 3

Petracca ended the AFL 2022 home-and-away season on a high note, polling three votes against Brisbane despite being projected as just a 9% chance of doing so.

His Melbourne team-mate Clayton Oliver was projected as a 66% chance of polling three, but Petracca was awarded best on ground for his 23 disposals and two goals.