Which AFL Coaches Are Under The Most Pressure in 2023?

Stats Insider's AFL Pressure Gauge ranks all 18 AFL coaches and determines who is safe and who is at risk. 

Based purely on data and without opinion, it considers factors such as betting markets, coaching tenure, experience of available players, publicly reported contract status, and recent results.

It’s a tough caper, being a senior coach in the AFL. 

Falling into the right environment is vital to building a successful culture, but a series of bad results can provide enough reason for a swift departure.

Inevitably, clubs move on from their head coaches with enough regularity to suggest that it’s worth exploring who may feel the pressure of an impatient board within the next 12 months.

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Adam Simpson (West Coast)  

AFL Pressure Gauge score: -18.1

Generally speaking, West Coast are one of the most stable, patient clubs in the AFL – Adam Simpson has been in charge of the team for the last 9 seasons, having replaced John Worsfold, who coached for 12 years.

2022 was expected to be a difficult year for the Eagles, one that became far worse when COVID struck the club, resulting in the necessity for top-up players. Despite this, the Eagles won in Round 4 against eventual preliminary finalists Collingwood.

Only one further win for the season left West Coast finishing in the bottom two for only the third time in their 36 seasons and will inevitably put pressure on a much-improved performance next season. 

Indeed, the margins were far more respectable post-bye, with the Eagles losing just two games by more than 35 points during that time, but such a lack of success is unheard of by the club with the most members in the league – 2008 was their previous worst season with four wins and 65.88%, a far cry from this year’s two wins and 59.82%.

It leaves Simpson under the most pressure in the AFL to hold onto his job next season if the Eagles can’t take strides forward which at the moment, seems a little hard to imagine. 

The 46-year-old is the only coach in club history to have a winning finals record.

MORE: Stats Insider's AFL Pressure Gauge

Brett Ratten (St Kilda)

AFL Pressure Gauge score: 6.2

The absolute worst position for a club to be in within a professional sports environment is stagnant and mediocre, yet the Saints have not been able to escape these labels under Brett Ratten.

Perhaps it was premature to re-sign the senior coach until the end of 2024 mid-season, when the Saints seemingly had a hold of a top eight spot, yet by the time the club regressed to the mean with just three wins in their last 11 games, they had nowhere to go.

The shortened 2020 season was certainly a high point for Ratten and the Saints – it’s the only time they’ve made finals since 2011 and signified their first season with a winning record since 2016, as well as the first time they finished a season with a percentage over 100 since 2012.

It’s important to note that the Saints have announced they’ll be undertaking a post-season review of its football department, indicating they will not settle for continued mediocrity and will look to make changes if necessary.

Sure, the contract extension certainly eases immediate pressure on the legendary Blue, yet another middling season will spell trouble for Ratten’s time at St Kilda.

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Ken Hinkley (Port Adelaide)

AFL Pressure Gauge score: 14.4

At the moment, it seems Ken Hinkley has made enough small moves to have the full support of the playing group and board at Port Adelaide.

Moving Connor Rozee into a full-time midfield role was finally done, as well as the intention to do so with Zak Butters, with injury forcing a slight re-shuffle.

It isn’t as if Hinkley hasn’t done well at Port Adelaide, currently sitting with a 58.74% win rate over his 223 games in charge of the club, as the second-longest tenured coach of the Power.

Port Adelaide hasn’t won less than 10 games in any season Hinkley has been in charge and they’ve made finals in five of his 10 years. This includes a minor premiership in 2020 and a second-place finish in 2021.

A decade is a long time in football though, particularly for a coach that hasn’t taken his team to a Grand Final. In recent seasons, Port have developed into a team that can be dominant over lesser opposition, but in high-pressure moments, fail to find an extra gear that very good teams tend to have.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with a team that’s capped as a good team, constantly in the hunt for a finals spot, but there comes a point in time where repeated showings of an inability to take the next step wears thin on those in charge.

Hinkley took over at a time where they were a basket-case at the start of the decade and has turned them into a rock-solid team.

Supporters have called for change at different times over the last 18 months and it seems a more realistic prospect as time goes on if the Power can’t re-enter the premiership conversation with a talented, young group.

One suspects, however, that Hinkley is more likely to step aside himself when the time may come. He has earned that much respect.

MORE: AFL Player Ratings 2022

Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs)

AFL Pressure Gauge score: 15.5

After stumbling into finals in 2022, the Bulldogs have featured in the top eight in 75% of the seasons that Luke Beveridge has been in charge.

It’s a remarkable record for a coach that has brought so much to the Bulldogs, including their most sustained attack on finals positions since the late 1990s and of course, the club’s second ever premiership.

Yet in those eight seasons in charge, six of which have resulted in finals appearances, Beveridge has never managed to have his team finish in the top four. In fact, despite having the winningest finals record of any coach in club history, the Bulldogs have won games in only two of the six finals series they’ve appeared in under Beveridge.

There comes a point in time where the credits in the bank run dry and fan frustrations are heard.

The legacy of Beveridge at the Bulldogs is cemented, currently the most successful coach of all time at the club and having brought such joy to the stakeholders.

Yet baffling team selections, positional switches and strange press conferences are only as effective as the team’s ultimate success, which has been lacking as a genuine, top-end threat for years, despite an appearance in the 2020 Grand Final.

Rumours that the club is finally addressing its key defensive stocks with Liam Jones and Adam Tomlinson is a step in the right direction from an on-field standpoint, while the prospect of Brendon Lade joining as a senior assistant is a massive coup for the team.

2023 feels like a year where the Bulldogs simply must finish top four to fully maximise the talent at their disposal.

If not, Lade may be the next coach in line to take over at the club as the pressure mounts on Beveridge.

AFL Pressure Gauge