Which Teams Can Force Their Way Into the 2023 AFL Finals?

Since the dawn of the 18-team era of the AFL, the finals series has never been comprised of the same eight teams from one season to the next.

The 2022 season saw GWS, Port Adelaide, and Essendon drop out of the eight, replaced by Collingwood, Fremantle, and the resurgent Richmond. With the 2023 season dawning, our AFL Futures model predicts that we could see a number changes come September once again.

Much has been made of the likes of last year's finalists Collingwood, Sydney, and Fremantle, with many punters considering them the most likely to make way for new contenders for the flag.

We've taken a look at the teams most likely to make the jump into the top eight and give the AFL 2023 finals race a different look to the previous edition.

READ: 2023 AFL Schedule Difficulty 

Carlton the Team on the Rise

Fans won't quickly forget how the Blues' 2022 ended, missing out on returning to the finals for the first time since 2013 in the most heartbreaking of circumstances. 

“What was the most challenging moment in 2022?”

The final siren of Round 23. Carlton v Collingwood. Cheers 🫡 pic.twitter.com/bTaD0LZ1Vv

— Daniel Barillaro (@Dan_Barillaro) December 28, 2022

With that final-round loss to arch-rivals Collingwood fresh on their minds, they'll be out for vengeance this time around.

Our simulation reflects that, giving Carlton a 60.5% chance to finish in the top eight – the sixth-best chance of any team in the competition. Betfair currently has the Blues at $1.51 to claim a finals berth.

They'll be led once again by last season's Brownlow medallist in Patrick Cripps, who ranks eighth overall in our AFL Player Ratings.Combine the star midfielder with 2021 and 2022's Coleman medallists in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, and it's clear to see why the Blues are considered are a big threat this season.

Defensively, they also boast the fourth best ranked key defender in the league in Jacob Weitering, who earned a nod in the All-Australian squad last season. Sam Docherty and Adam Saad both also rank in the top 10 at Stats Insider for general defenders.

Perhaps working most in the Blues' favour though is their schedule difficulty. Our simulation rates their fixture as the easiest in the AFL overall, just behind premiers Geelong.

With double-ups against North Melbourne and West Coast, who we predict are the two likeliest sides to rack up the most losses, as well as Gold Coast and GWS (both with a 25% or less chance of making finals), Carlton has every chance to claim a spot in September action this season.

A Finals Return for Port Adelaide

Port Adelaide had the worst start to the 2022 season of any club, dropping their first five games straight and falling well behind the pack. This poor start cost them dearly, leading to an 11th placed finish.

After winning the minor premiership and finishing second with back-to-back prelim appearances the two seasons prior, our simulations predict that 2022 was just a down season for the Power.

With a 60% chance to make finals and a 28.9% to crack the top four, things are looking up for Ken Hinkley's men. They even boast a 14.3% chance to reach the Grand Final – not too far off 2021 Premiers Melbourne (19.6%) and the highly favoured Brisbane (18.9%).

Port Adelaide made one of the biggest moves of the AFL trade period, bringing in 2021's number one draft pick Jason Horne-Francis from North Melbourne. While he didn't set the world on fire in his debut season, there's no doubt the South Australia native will be a key part of the club's future.

Everyone looks better in black and white 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/REtI5ixNGc

— Port Adelaide FC (@PAFC) March 11, 2023

The Power's other additions in Junior Rioli and Francis Evans are also not players tipped to make an immediate and dramatic impact. But the contributions from the pieces already at Hinkley's disposal are only set to increase.

The 23-year-old Connor Rozee had his career-best season, making a permanent move into the midfield and averaging career highs in nearly every stat other than his scoring output. He was ultimately rewarded with his first All-Australian blazer, but finding consistency will be the key if Rozee is to rise higher than the 76th ranking in our AFL player ratings.

Finding firepower up forward is the challenge for Port.

Key forward Todd Marshall kicked a career-high 45 goals, Jeremy Finlayson found a new niche in the ruck, and Travis Boak continues to age like a fine wine (ranked as the 33rd best player in the league).

Most importantly, Charlie Dixon ranks 88th in our AFL player ratings despite missing a significant portion of 2022. If he can find his best, he'll be the catalyst for a Power surge.

Working against the Power is the third hardest schedule in the AFL. But our Futures simulation sees them overcoming these difficulties, unlike 2022, and making a return to finals football.

A Saintly Surprise?

St Kilda has found itself as a team fighting in the middle of the pack in recent years. The club has finished 10th in the past two seasons, with a break into the top eight and a semi-final appearance in 2020.

With the sacking of coach Brett Ratten and a blast from the past as Ross Lyon takes back the reins, 2023 is supposed to be the start of a new era for St Kilda. But will that be reflected in a finals appearance?

Our AFL Futures prediction gives St Kilda a 30.7% chance of returning to finals. This is 11th in the league overall, a fair jump down from 10th placed Fremantle (48.7%).

This time next week.

Bring on the Dockers at Marvel ⏳ pic.twitter.com/Jbb0nF2Ys1

— St Kilda FC (@stkildafc) March 12, 2023

The Saints have points going both ways when it comes to jumping into the top eight in 2023. The biggest factor in their favour is the strength of their draw, coming in as the fourth easiest of any team, equal with Melbourne.

This will see St Kilda play Gold Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne twice – all teams ranked lower in top eight probability. The club also doesn't leave Melbourne until Round 9, excluding the Gather Round encounter with Collingwood on neutral turf in Adelaide.

The Saints also have a number of best 22 players unavailable across that time, including Jack Billings, Zak Jones and Max King. Signs are looking positive for Tim Membrey and Marcus Windhager though, strengthening their forward line and midfield.

With a new coach and a favourable fixture, could this be enough to see the Saints back into the finals?

Which Teams Will Miss the Finals?

While some teams look set to rise in 2023, there are others which will inevitably drop. Our AFL Futures simulation predicts that two teams are likely to drop out of the eight from last season, Collingwood and the Bulldogs.

Collingwood had one of the most dramatic seasons of any team in 2022. The club had 16 games decided by 15 points or less, including both of its finals losses. It is not a sustainable winning style, and Collingwood could potentially drop into the bottom 10.

Our simulations mirror this, but still give the Pies a 57.6% chance of making the top eight, only 1.5% below the eighth ranked Bulldogs. The Pies also face the second toughest fixture in the league, which could easily be their undoing as they face Geelong, Brisbane and Carlton twice.

The Bulldogs are also tipped to slide, and after having lost Josh Dunkley and Lachie Hunter, have dropped a bit of talent off their list.

But it's over in the west where the biggest drop looks likely, with Fremantle sliding down to a 48.7% chance to make the top eight, and a 19.9% chance to reach the top four.

The Dockers rank 10th overall in the league in their finals chances. While there’s a fair gap between them and the Saints, they may be in danger with the fifth hardest ranked fixture. They'll have to face the Lions, Cats, Swans and Bulldogs twice, and hope to claim a few upsets to secure a place in September again.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)