Which Teams Will Make the 2023 NRL Finals?
Last updated: Jul 6, 2023, 5:33AM | Published: Jul 5, 2023, 9:20AM
With seven weeks left in the 2023 NRL regular season, nine teams are rated as having a better than 50% chance of making this year's finals series.
The Panthers, Broncos, Rabbitohs, and Storm all have a better than 90.5% probability of making the finals, while the Sharks, Eels, and Raiders are all above 78.9% to make the top eight.
The Warriors, who have the easiest run home according to Stats Insider's NRL schedule difficulty assessor, are at 65.1% probability to make the eight, while the Cowboys are currently at 52.8% probability to make the finals after their 74-point victory over the Tigers in Round 18, the biggest winning margin in Australian rugby league in 88 years.
Dabble has the Cowboys at $1.90 to make the 2023 NRL Finals, which is an implied probability of 52.6%.
According to Stats Insider's NRL futures model, there are eight teams that are unlikely to play in this year's finals, with the Roosters at 15.5% considered the best of the rest.
Stats Insider's NRL expert says the Cowboys next four weeks of football will determine whether or not they play in the finals.
"Our NRL strength of schedule model gives the Cowboys the fourth most difficult run home of any team in the competition," he said.
"But after this weekend's bye, the Cowboys don't face a team our model deems to be a difficult team until Round 25, where they face the Sharks.
"They're currently the most in-form team in the NRL after winning four straight, and they're likely to go in as the favourites in games against the Sea Eagles, Eels, and Titans across the next four rounds.
"We could see the Cowboys firmly entrenched in the top eight before they face the Sharks in Round 25, which would be a huge boost to their finals aspirations."
MORE: NRL Tips For This Weekend - Round 19, 2023
2023 NRL Finals Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Penrith Panthers | 99.7% |
| Brisbane Broncos | 98.1% |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 95.6% |
| Melbourne Storm | 90.5% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 88.9% |
| Parramatta Eels | 80.3% |
| Canberra Raiders | 78.9% |
| New Zealand Warriors | 65.1% |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 52.8% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
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(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
