Which Teams Will Play in the 2023 AFL Grand Final?
Last updated: Jul 11, 2023, 3:12AM | Published: Jul 10, 2023, 10:43AM
Port Adelaide is the most likely team to play in the 2023 AFL grand final.
According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, Port Adelaide has a 47.3% chance of making the 2023 AFL grand final, ahead of Brisbane at 43.6% and Collingwood at 42.7%.
Rounding out the top four is Melbourne with a 26.8% probability.
The Power's climb to the top of the AFL grand final probabilities comes following their Round 17 victory over Gold Coast, a club-record 12th straight success.
Port Adelaide is paying $2.20 to make the 2023 AFL grand final on the Betfair Exchange, which is an implied probability of 45.5%.
Stats Insider's AFL expert has explained why Collingwood is the favourite to win the 2023 AFL premiership at 23.4% despite being the third most likely team to make the decider.
"Collingwood is a slight favourite to win the premiership but third most likely to make the grand final," he said.
"This seems non-intuitive, but this is a product of two interstate teams in the form of Port Adelaide and Brisbane having the potential to play two home finals without leaving the state before playing the grand final at the MCG.
"But the obvious trade-off is that, if Collingwood does make the grand final, they'll have a better chance to win it if they face one of those two teams, given the home ground advantage."
Port Adelaide travels to Melbourne to face Carlton at Marvel Stadium in Round 18.
2023 AFL Grand Final Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Port Adelaide Power | 47.3% |
| Brisbane Lions | 43.6% |
| Collingwood Magpies | 42.7% |
| Melbourne Demons | 26.8% |
| Geelong Cats | 14.2% |
| Western Bulldogs | 6.6% |
| Adelaide Crows | 4.9% |
| Carlton Blues | 4.8% |
| Essendon Bombers | 3.4% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
