2023 AFL Preliminary Final Winners Revealed
Last updated: Sep 18, 2023, 3:01AM | Published: Aug 21, 2023, 7:30AM
After 10,000 simulations of the 2023 preliminary finals, Stats Insider's AFL predictive model believes Brisbane and Collingwood are the two teams most likely to progress through to the AFL Grand Final.
According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, Brisbane has the highest winning probability of making the grand final at 69% in its matchup with Carlton, while Collingwood is at 58% winning probability to beat GWS.
Stats Insider believes Collingwood and Brisbane is the most likely grand final matchup, with a 42.3% probability the two teams will square off in the decider.
Friday night sees Collingwood hosting GWS at the MCG in a rematch of the 2019 preliminary final.
Collingwood has a 58% winning probability heading into the matchup, and are currently the second most likely team to win the premiership at 32.7%. GWS are at 17.5% to win the 2023 AFL premiership and 38.6% to make the decider.
Saturday sees the Lions hosting the Blues at the Gabba.
Brisbane, which is undefeated at home in 2023, welcome a Carlton team that has won its last two finals by a culminative eight points.
Stats Insider's AFL expert believes the Lions will be hard to beat going into the preliminary final.
"Brisbane is the most likely team to make the 2023 Grand Final at 70%, and has been the favourite with Stats Insider to make the decider since the beginning of the finals series" he said.
"The Lions were undefeated at home throughout the home and away season and following a comprehensive victory over Port Adelaide in the qualifying final, their stocks have only risen since.
"the Lions go into the weekend with the highest win probability, and the model believes Brisbane is the most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership."
Brisbane faces Carlton at the Gabba on Saturday night to determine which team will make it through to the 2023 AFL Grand Final. The Lions go into this weekend's matchups as the most likely team to make it through to the decider.
MORE: 2023 AFL Futures
2023 AFL Grand Final Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Brisbane Lions | 70.0% |
| Collingwood Magpies | 61.4% |
| GWS Giants | 38.6% |
| Carlton Blues | 20.8% |
All probabilities were correct at the time of publishing.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
