Who Will Win the 2023 Men's Australian Open Final?

Two of Stats Insider's most probable Australian Final finalists meet at Melbourne Park with Stefanos Tsitsipas chasing that elusive first major title against the King of Melbourne Park, Novak Djokovic.

This clash is a rematch of the 2021 French Open final, where Tsitsipas was one set away from glory on the clay court of Philippe-Chatrier before Djokovic reeled him in and ran over the top to defeat the heartbroken 22-year-old in five sets.

Tsitsipas is two years older now - he should be more prepared for a date with Djokovic. He’s playing at his favourite Grand Slam, a place where he’s made the semi-finals in three of his four main draw appearances.

His 2023 season has started with a bang. The 3rd seed is 10-0 in Australia and has been on fire at Melbourne Park, belting his opponents into the ground during rallies and winning a healthy lot of free points with his serve.

Tsitsipas breezed through the opening three matches of the tournament, and looked to continue that trend in the fourth round against Italian starlet Jannik Sinner. He won the first two sets comfortably, but a third set lapse in concentration had him falling back into the pit of his own mental demons.

He looked completely lost in the corresponding fourth set, before righting himself to pull off the win in five sets after taking a bathroom break and clearing his head.

Similar issues presented in the semi-final against Karen Khachanov, who was in scintillating form. Tsitsipas lost the third set after being up 2-0, and his emotions threatened to get the better of him. He was able to find his groove again quickly though, and was determined not to have a fifth-set decider thrust upon him two days before a date with the Serb.

These mental demons that Tsitsipas is fighting through are his biggest barrier to winning a Grand Slam title. His trepidation on match points, when everything slows down around him and he needs to execute, isn’t conducive to being a Grand Slam champion.

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He stiffens up on service games when the match is in the balance, he lets his emotions get the better of him when he loses points, and his usually cool, calm and collected demeanour is nowhere to be found.

That will be the biggest issue when coming up against the man on the other side of the net on Sunday night. Djokovic has executed flawlessly under duress, and he has 21 Grand Slam titles to show for it.

The Serb has erased all fears of a hamstring injury curtailing his search for a 10th Australian Open trophy. Since hisfourth round matchup with Aussie Alex De Minaur, the 4th seed has been clinical in big moments and routed his opponents in a way only he can.

Djokovic is making up for lost time after missing out on an opportunity to contest his title last year. He’s 11-0 in 2023, and hasn’t lost at Melbourne Park since the fourth round of the Australian Open in 2018.

Who Will Win the 2023 Australian Open?

Djokovic rightly comes into the 2022 Australian Open against Tsitsipas as an overwhelming $1.19 favourite on Sportsbet, with Stats Insider’s predictive model giving the 21-time Major winner an 80% chance of claiming number 22.

In doing so, he would match Rafael Nadal with the most Grand Slam titles in tennis history.

Djokovic and Tsitsipas have consistently faced off in the latter stages of tournaments across the past five years.

The Greek won three of their first five encounters, but that’s where the success ends. Djokovic has beaten Tsitsipas in their last eight matches, including four times in 2022. In their two Grand Slam meetings, Djokovic has prevailed in five sets - both at Roland Garros.

For every weapon that Tsitsipas boasts, Djokovic seems to have an answer. He’s the greatest service returner that game has ever seen, and Stef will have to fight for every point on his own service games.

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His two-handed backhand generates speeds similar to his forehand - it hits its mark consistently and he can comfortably go down the line to change the complexion of rallies. Tsitsipas often relies on these backhand rallies to get some ascendancy, but Djokovic will sit there all day and trade blows.

Both will come into this final fresh - Djokovic spent more time on court in the first week but that’s been flipped in the second. Tsitsipas has spent just 35 minutes more time on court this fortnight.

With Djokovic carrying this level of form into the final, and Tsitsipas unable to shake those mental fragilities that have plagued his professional career to date, it’s difficult to see the Greek star triumphing.

Expect Djokovic to make history with a 10th Australian Open title on Sunday.

Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open 2023, including pre-match predictions, expert tips, and live in-play probabilities.