Who Will Win the Merseyside Derby on April 2? Liverpool or Everton?

The Merseyside Derby is one of English football's most storied rivalries dating back to 1894. The derby has been played continuously since the 1962-63 season and is set to reignite on April 2, 2025, when Liverpool hosts Everton at Anfield. With Liverpool having one hand on the Premier League trophy and Everton almost being mathematically safe from relegation, neutrals would be forgiven for thinking this fixture could be a proverbial dead rubber. However, nothing could be further from the truth, with both teams guaranteed to give there all and leave nothing on the pitch from the second the referee blows his whistle at 8:00 p.m. BST on April 2.

Current League Positions and Form

Liverpool winning the league is almost a forgone conclusion. Arne Slot's men occupy the top spot in the Premier League table following 21 wins and seven draws from their 29 completed fixtures. Those impressive results put Liverpool on 70 points, 12 clear of second-placed Arsenal with only nine games remaining of the 2024-25 campaign. There is no way that Arsenal can make up the 12-point difference with so few games left, which is why many of the online sports betting sites in California and around the world are considering paying out on a Liverpool title win early.

On the other hand, Everton languishes in 15th place, having picked up only 34 points this season courtesy of seven wins and 12 draws. Ordinarily, that points tally would mean Everton battling against relegation to the Championship. However, they are 17 points clear of the dreaded drop zone because the bottom three teams have been nothing short of terrible. David Moyes' men need a maximum of ten points from their remaining nine fixtures to be guaranteed Premier League football next season.

Liverpool's league form has been stupendous; the Reds have lost only one game this season, and that was in September. However, the team's form in other competitions has been far from stellar. On March 11, Paris St. Germain dumped Liverpool out of the UEFA Champions League on penalties. Slot's men then lost 1-2 to Newcastle United in the League Cup final on March 16, leaving only the Premier League as the only trophy Liverpool can win this season.

Everton's recent form belies their lowly league position. When David Moyes returned to Goodison Park for his second spell in charge on January 11, Everton had only three wins in 19 matches and were a mere one point clear of the relegation zone. Since Moyes' return, Everton have won four, drawn five, and lost once. One of those draws was a last-gasp 2-2 against Liverpool on February 12, the last Merseyside Derby to occur at Goodison Park before Everton moves to its new stadium next season.

Previous Meetings Between Liverpool and Everton

Liverpool and Everton have faced each other 65 times in the Premier League. The Reds have a much better record than their blue rivals, winning 28 times compared to Everton's 11 victories. Twenty-six Merseyside Derbies have ended all square.

Everton has only won three times at Anfield during the Premier League era, the last victory coming during the 2020-21 season, when the Toffees ran out 2-0 victors. One must return to the 1999-2000 season to find the next Everton away win.

The last three Merseyside Derbies at Anfield have ended 2-0 to Liverpool. Last season, a Mohamed Salah double was enough to send ten-man Everton home without a share of the spoils.

Advanced Metrics and Defensive Records

On paper, everything points toward Liverpool enjoying their 22nd victory of the 2024-24 Premier League season when they host Everton on April 2. Liverpool as an xG For of 1.92 per match and an xG Against of 1.19 per game. Those numbers are similar for the Reds' home fixtures, listed as 1.87 and 1.10, respectively. Liverpool combines a robust defense with a scintilating attack, which is a deadly combination that few teams can counter.

Everton averages an xG For of 1.29 per game and an xG Against of 1.48. Those statistics are worse when Everton are on the road, with 1.14 and 1.62, respectively. Moyes' Everton does not create many clear-cut chances, preferring to put defensive duties above everything else, as you would if you were in their lowly position.

None of Liverpool's Premier League games this season have ended 0-0 compared to Everton's 17%. 41% of Everton's games have triggered the over 2.5 goals market, but only 29% of their away fixtures have. Some 62% of Liverpools games, including 64% of their home games, have finished with over 2.5 goals. Indeed, 36% of Liverpool's home games have seen over 3.5 goals scored.

Another market to consider is BTTS. Some 55% of Liverpool games (57% at Anfield) see both teams find the back of the net, while 45% of Everton's fixtures (43% away from home) have seen both teams score.

Liverpool Versus Everton Prediction

Liverpool is 14 places and 36 points ahead of their Merseyside rivals going into this game, which makes one think the game on April 2 could be a one-sided encounter. Although Liverpool will go into the game as overwhelming favorites, a home victory may not be as clear cut as you would imagine.

Arne Slot's men looked tired when PSG eliminated them from the Champions League and were second-best as they lost to Newcastle United in the League Cup final. On the other hand, Everton may have drawn their last four games, but they go into this latest Merseyside Derby without fear of relegation due to being 17 points clear of the drop zone.

Although a Liverpool win looks likely, consider backing the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score market due to the xG and other season-long statistics, making those markets have value. Sure, Everton hasn't scored at Anfield in their last three meetings, but Everton last drew a blank in the Premier League on January 15, some nine games ago.