Why Does Collingwood Keep Winning Close Games?

The more things change for the Pies, the more they stay the same.

Collingwood defeated Adelaide by a single point five days after a stunning Anzac Day victory which saw the Pies came back from the brink to break Bomber hearts.

Sunday’s extraordinary result over Adelaide has cemented them as the most likely team to win the minor premiership, with the Stats Insider model giving them a 32.8% chance of winning the AFL minor premiership.

We've crunched the numbers at Stats Insider to answer the question, why does Collingwood keep winning close games? 

MORE: 2023 AFL Futures

Role Players stand up

There's no shortage of stars at Collingwood.

Nick Daicos and Darcy Moore sit in the top 15 players in the league according to Stats Insider’s AFL Player Ratings, but it was the performances of the lesser players that carry the Magpies over the line. 

In the final quarter of Collingwood’s mad dash home against the Crows, Josh Daicos finished with 12 disposals, five contested possessions, three clearances and a goal, Isaac Quaynor had four intercept possessions, Ash Johnson laid three tackles and kicked a goal while Jamie Elliott dragged his opponent out of the forward 50, having seven disposals and five marks.

This comes on the back of a final quarter blitz in Collingwood's win over Essendon on Anzac Day, led by Nick Daicos’ two-goal final term, but players like John Noble (nine disposals), Jack Crisp, Jordan De Goey, Steele Sidebottom and the older Daicos (eight disposals), Trey Ruscoe (three intercepts) and Beau McCreery (17 pressure acts), overwhelmed the Bombers to the point of no return.

Collingwood is the third most probable team to win the 2023 AFL premiership at 17.7%, but their strong run of form has seen them go to the top of the Betfair Exchangeat the $5.30 mark.

In another win for Magpies' coach Craig McRae, Billy Frampton’s move to the ruck has yielded extraordinary results.

While the Magpies have developed a couple of headliners that will receive individual honours come the end of the season, it’s the performances of the entire playing group and support systems in place, where the team rarely gets outnumbered and outworked, that drags them over the line.

This isn’t a new concept either, with role players and current absentees Jeremy Howe, Patrick Lipinksi and Josh Carmichael amongst the team’s most prolific final quarter performers in 2022, along with the aforementioned names.

It’s always said that it takes 25-30 players to win a premiership rather than the elite handful, and the Magpies bat deep.

READ: AFL Player Ratings

It’s no fluke that the Magpies Play the Percentages 

In their last 28 games, 14 Magpie games have been decided by 7 points or less, with Collingwood winning 11 of these. The belief within the playing group is extraordinary, but the structure put in place and the work rate across the 18 players on the field separates this team from the rest.

Sidebottom’s last fortnight is the most influential he has been in years, averaging 27 disposals, six marks and five tackles, including three goal assists on Anzac Day, yet his gut-running ability to find space in the final minute close to the boundary inside 50 was perhaps his most valuable piece of play in all.

In 2023, teams have a 0.5% chance of scoring a goal from a kick out, while that increases to 11% from a centre bounce clearance situation. 

Ash Johnson’s play with less than two minutes left, to hit the 50/50 ball through his own goals instead of keeping it in play was an intelligent move that coach Craig McRae would have trained his team to be cognisant of in close situations. Coverage at the back side of the boundary throw-in was a gamble worth taking, as it meant the Magpies could sweep the ball further towards the goal face and allow Johnson a one-on-one.

Sidebottom’s behind instead of kicking a goal with 20 seconds left ultimately guaranteed the Magpies a victory, particularly given their opponents average the second-fewest inside 50s per game in the league.

Collingwood's come-from-behind victory over Essendon on Anzac Day saw all of our best bets for #AFLPiesDons win on the @Betfair_AusExchange. pic.twitter.com/p4XeBGGV6X

— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) April 26, 2023

Can Collingwood keep winning close games, or is the Magpies' run of form unsustainable?

Ask anyone this in Round 12 of 2022, when the Magpies won their second-consecutive game by 4 points and the answer would have been “no.” Some two weeks later, Collingwood started a six-game winning streak where every game was decided by 7 points or less.

Making a habit of a late run home isn’t the gameplan McRae implements at the start of the game, although it’s worked far more than it hasn’t in the last two seasons. Ultimately, this is a team that backs itself in regardless of game situation and has a style that is complemented by work rate, rather than reliant on it.

Collingwood currently sits on top of the ladder as the only team with six wins, having played all bar one game against teams in positioned from second to ninth.

Crucial to the 32.8% chance our model gives them of winning the minor premiership is the fact they’ve navigated a difficult start to the season and, according to the Stats Insider AFL Schedule Difficulty model, they have the equal third-easiest set of fixtures left.

The only evidence we have of failures in close games recently of the Magpies comes from the 2022 finals series.

Against Geelong in the qualifying final, it was an arm wrestle where Collingwood was in control for most of the game until the end.

In the preliminary final, they trailed Sydney by 36 points in the third quarter, kicking 6 of the last seven goals and having the ball inside forward 50 in the dying moments to lose by a single point.

The Stats Insider AFL Futures model has Collingwood slightly behind Melbourne and Geelong in our premiership model, given a 17.7% to take home the 2023 Premiership Cup.

Yet even when the Magpies seem to be outplayed and outgunned in matches, the mix of strong, positive intangibles with excellent structure around the ball and half-forwards chasing the ball into the back half like Will Hoskin-Elliott against the Crows means that they’re the most clutch team in the AFL.

That’s what makes Collingwood so good in close games and has them in the box seat for a tilt at the flag.

(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)