Why Rafael Nadal is no guarantee to win the 2019 French Open

Image: Rafael Nadal 1er tour Roland Garros 2012 : Rafael Nadal (ESP) def. Simone Bolelli (ITA) 
by Steven Pisano (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Living in tennis’ recent 'Big Three' era has been both a wondrous joy and, at times, a maddening bore.

For all the indisputable greatness of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, for all the masterpieces the three have collectively painted over the last 15 or so years - there exists a yearning to see some of the long-promised offerings of the tour’s perennial apprentices.

Alas, the ATP gallery still remains an exclusive, three-artist exhibition.

An exhibition that’s both mind-blowingly excellent - though a little repetitive at times - and one which makes the WTA gallery across the road seem like such a raucous, abstract expressionist event.

The French Open section of the ATP gallery is jam-packed with Rafa Nadal’s work, celebrating the southpaw’s amazing career, while as we speak, the curators are already setting up a special 2019 section to commemorate what’s widely expected to be the grand Spaniard’s 12^th Roland Garros title.

The Stats Insider tennis model is indeed forecasting another Parisian triumph for Nadal, projecting him at a 55% chance of tournament victory, while the bookies are in lockstep agreement, with all promising less than odds-on value about another jewel in the Rafa-naissance.  

But... are we all in the Rafa line just a little too soon?

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Are we all so accustomed to expecting another Nadal ‘claymation’ extravaganza that we’ve perhaps forgotten that for every 55% chance, there exists a 45% potential for the opposite?

Has Rafa’s utter domination of the French Open made us completely numb so as to forget that someone else is eminently capable of stealing his crown?

For starters, 2019 Rafa isn’t the same Nadal who has positively marauded his way through each and every clay-court season over the past 15 years.

In fact, it took until the Rome Masters two weeks ago for Nadal to finally win his first title of 2019, which is indeed the longest Rafa has had to wait to claim a trophy in a calendar year since 2004.

Since being profoundly beaten in the Australian Open Final by Djokovic, Rafa has found the going tough on the ATP Tour this year, failing to make the final of either the Miami Masters or Indian Wells tournaments, while even been ousted in the Quarter-Final of the Acapulco Open by none other than Nick Kyrgios.

The European Clay court season was presumed to function as Rafa’s redemption with an expected feast of titles, yet Nadal has continued to struggle - beaten in the Semi-Final in Barcelona by Dominic Thiem, and trumped again by Stefanos Tsistipas in Madrid.

And it’s in raising the names of the likes of Thiem and Tsitsipas - and, while we’re here, Alexander Zverev, Borna Coric and Karen Khachanov - that reminds ATP enthusiasts that while these youngsters are yet to paint their own masterpiece, studiously working away at the feet of the legends has made it simply a matter of time before one breaks through in a big way.

In Thiem and Tsitsipas particularly, the ATP has two extremely talented young contenders on its hands, both bursting at the seams to make one almighty splash in a major tournament.

Thiem’s already put together three consecutive campaigns of making at least the Semi-Final at Roland Garros, while last year graduating to the finale against Nadal, where the young Austrian was swept away in straight sets.

This year, Thiem won his first ever Masters title in Indian Wells in March, and should feel confident that he has what it takes to beat Nadal, getting the better of the Spanish legend in Barcelona, while also claiming his scalp in both Rome and Madrid in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

In Tsitsipas, we have both a mercurial and driven 20-year-old, who’s already helped himself to three ATP titles, which included a scorching performance on the Portuguese clay of Estoril in April, where the young Greek looked extremely comfortable on what is his favourite surface, and where Stat Insider’s custom rankings currently place him 5^th best in the world.

UNIQUE: Stats Insider's Tennis World Rankings

It’s also worth remembering that Tsitsipas already boasts victories over Nadal and Federer, the latter of which he dominated at the Australian Open, earlier in the year.

And these are just the kids.

Nadal doesn’t need reminding of his old nemesis, Roger Federer, and is only too aware that Novak Djokovic has returned to his most sublime form by winning the last three Grand Slam titles, as well as collecting three Masters events since mid-2018.

Furthermore, Djokovic has had the better of Nadal in seven of the last nine matches they’ve played.

Rafa Nadal may well indeed triumph once again at Roland Garros. If he does, it will be yet another notch on what's been a truly exceptional career by one of the sport's most likeable and gentlemanly figures.

However, the gallery curators really should have a backup plan for the Nadal showcase, should one desperate young contender come roaring through with an act of young genius.

It's now not just a matter of 'if,' but of 'when.' 

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