The South Sydney Rabbitohs have won just one of their opening four games of the 2022 NRL season.

Only the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, St. George Illawarra Dragons and Wests Tigers - comfortably the three worst teams in the competition right now - are below them on the ladder. The draw hasn’t been kind early on which isn’t unexpected for the top teams. After making the 2021 Grand Final, the schedule-makers were always going to put the Rabbitohs against one or two of the best teams to start the season.

Their 11-4 loss to the Broncos, however, was not one of those games. Put down as an off night thanks to 14 errors, the Rabbitohs bounced back to push the Melbourne Storm to Golden Point in Round 2 and convincingly beat the Roosters in Round 3. While the scoreboard doesn’t make for good reading in Round 4, Souths gave a decent enough account of themselves in losing to the Penrith Panthers 26-12.

Ignoring Round 1, the Rabbitohs have been able to take something out of every week with a positive eye on the future. They're building well enough that we're yet to see the crisis portion of the rugby league community call an end to their premiership chances. However, they still have a handful of areas that need addressing if they’re to make the most of an appealing draw through to the State of Origin break with six of their next eight games to be played at home.

Upcoming Draw: Dragons, Bulldogs, @ Tigers, Sea Eagles, Broncos, @ Warriors, Raiders, Tigers, Bye

Punters- At TopSport, the Bunnies are paying $3.3 to finish top-4 for a 4th time in 5 seasons.

The Numbers After Round 4

There is only so much we can take out of the numbers this early into an NRL season. That isn’t to say they’re useless, though. For the Rabbitohs, we can quite clearly see what is going well and what isn’t.

The Rabbitohs are pushing up and supporting the ball carriers. Anything can happen around the likes of Cameron Murray, Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell so the fact that players are available to make the most of that 'anything' is a positive sign.

There are few better examples of the benefits of staying active around the ball than Walker's try against the Roosters in Round 3. The initial play is to get the ball wide and have Murray hit the gap between the three and four-in defenders. When Sitili Tupouniua disrupts Murray's run just enough and forces him to adjust, Walker adjusts with him, cuts inside and scores a beauty.

Lachlan Ilias leads the competition in supports with 44 through four rounds. Encouragingly, Tevita Tatola (28), Jai Arrow (21) and Cameron Murray (21) are all pushing up through the middle which plays a big part in South Sydney’s 1,672 running metres per game. We know the eventual premiers always rank towards the top of the yardage list by the end of the season and the Rabbitohs sitting at 4th despite their position on the ladder is promising.

The Rabbitohs averaged 26.5 line engagements per game in 2021 - almost five more per game than any other team. Engaging the line in the middle of the field created space out wide where Souths scored the majority of their 31.1 points per game. While the points aren’t there for them at the moment (14.5 per game - 12th), they’re still leading the competition in line engagements with 23.5 per game. Ilias is again worth noting. No player engaged the line more than Adam Reynolds in 2021. Tasked with filling his #7 jersey for 2022, Ilias currently ranks 4th in total line engagements through four rounds.

Here, he gets deep into the line with Thomas Burgess short and Cody Walker floating wide. With the defence focused on Walker in a spot the Rabbitohs often look wide, Ilias plays Burgess short and puts him into a gaping hole. 

The foundations of a good attack are there for the Rabbitohs. They're active around the ball, strong in yardage and getting deep into the line with the ball. It’s the mounting error count that is holding them back.

South Sydney’s 14 errors per game is the most in the NRL. It is translating into a 15th-ranked 69% completion rate as they play with only 49.8% possession (9th). They’re giving the ball up cheaply and allowing the opposition off the hook more often than not.

Notably, Walker and Alex Johnston - the lethal left-edge combination that contributed to 55% of their tries being scored down that side  last season - account for 18 of South Sydney's 56 errors.

The pair rank in the Top 5 in the competition in total errors through four rounds.

The Sydney Roosters topped the error count in three of the last five seasons and won two premierships in that time. Errors don't always translate into bad football and defeats. However, the Rabbitohs need to find a better balance to kickstart their 2022 season.

Punters- At TopSport the Rabbitohs are paying $13 to win the premiership. 

Outlook For Round 5 & Beyond

Jason Demetriou was handed a tough draw to start his career as a first-grade NRL coach but the Stats Insider Schedule Difficulty Ratings have highlighted their remaining draw as the easiest in the competition.

It starts with the Dragons this week with the Rabbitohs at 68% to take the chocolates. The Red V are playing with the worst defence in the competition at the moment conceding 30 points per game. Remarkably, Anthony Griffin has kept his backrower in the halves and bench utility at fullback for another week following a horror 48-14 defeat at the hands of the Eels in Round 4.

This is a gift for the Bunnies ahead of the Bulldogs (12% for the wooden spoon), Tigers (37.8%) and a Tom Trbojevic-less Sea Eagles over the next month. The expectations for the Rabbitohs should be set no lower than three wins in their next four games to be 4-4 after Round 8.

The Stats Insider Futures also still make for encouraging reading despite the 1-3 start.

Premiership: 9.9%
Top 4: 36.4%
Top 8: 76.4%

It was never going to be easy for the Rabbitohs to start this season with Reynolds now in Brisbane, Dane Gagai in Newcastle and Latrell Mitchell in the stands for the opener. The draw only made things more difficult. But while their position on the ladder says one thing, the eye test and enough of the numbers suggest they're on the right path and will prove their place in the premiership conversation sooner rather than later.

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