Why Totals are Trending Overs in the NBA
Last updated: Nov 10, 2021, 2:08AM | Published: Nov 20, 2018, 12:07AM
Teams flying out of the blocks to start the NBA season isn't much of a surprise. Eager to put all of their work over the summer into practice, defense tends to take a back seat for fresh moves and new-found shooting strokes.
GO TO NBA HUB
READ: Steph Curry Is Even More Valuable Than You Think
Despite being prepared for that, offenses are churning out the sort of numbers that have destroyed the Totals market, the bookmakers, and predictive models to start the 2018-19 season.
With 55% of games finishing over the points total, bookmakers took a bath throughout the first three weeks of the season. Square punters bet to their appetite - they want high scoring games and tend to take the Over. As a result, odds-makers have been relatively quick to adjust.
TRY STATS INSIDER PREMIUM FOR FREE
Over the last week, just 44.6% of games have gone Over to bring the total for the season down to 51.4%.
That 51.4% is still high, though. Only once in the last 10 years has the season finished with that many games going Over with only one other season ending over 50.5%.
| Season | % of games Over | Season | % of games Over |
| 2017-18 | 47.8% | 2012-13 | 50.4% |
| 2016-17 | 50.6% | 2011-12 | 48.4% |
| 2015-16 | 48.8% | 2010-11 | 47.8% |
| 2014-15 | 47.8% | 2009-10 | 49.2% |
| 2013-14 | 51.7% | 2008-09 | 50.1% |
So, why the increase in games going Over allowing squares to fill their pockets?
If they stick, the current 110.7 points per game teams are averaging across the league would finish as the highest since the 1964-65 season while the average offensive rating of 109.6 would end as the highest since the stat started to be recorded in 1974-75.
League leaders in scoring with 113.5 points per game last season, the Warriors would be way down at 10th if they'd reproduced that number over the opening month.
The increase in scoring is primarily due to three things:
- An increase in pace
- A league-wide focus on earning efficient shots
- Changes to rules and interpretations
A Blistering Pace
With teams averaging 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes, the pace of the league is the quickest it's been since 1988-89. Despite a steady increase in pace every year since 2011-12, the current pace is still well above the 93 possessions per 48 minutes average of the last 20 years.
To provide context of the sudden increase to start 2018-19, the Pelicans were the NBA's fastest team last season at 100.5 which would rank 15th in the NBA today - just a tick above the current league average.
A prime example of how the increase in pace is translating into higher scoring games is the Sacramento Kings.
Six #NBA teams are on pace to break the modern transition points per game record, but the @SacramentoKingsare on a tier by themselves early on. pic.twitter.com/OP8nLmnGJR
— Synergy Basketball (@SynergySST) November 5, 2018
They were dead last in pace at 94.9 and scored at 98.8 points per game in 2017-18. Amongst the worst rosters in the league, Sacramento's season died a slow and low-scoring death. For the most part, the same was expected in 2018-19 with their win total set at just 26 wins.
Just 14 games into the season, that number already looks far too low.
Up with a pace of 104.9 possessions per 48 minutes, the Kings have added 10 possessions per game and 14.9 points per game this season. They're rebranding themselves as an up-tempo team, and so far, it's working. The Kings are flying at 8-8 to
sit inside the playoff seedings a month into the season.
While they're unlikely to keep it up all the way through to April, their change in focus and that of the league, in general, speaks volumes.
Elite Efficiency
Compared to last season, teams are playing with an extra four possessions per game and scoring exceptionally efficiently on them.
The mid-range jump shot is being written out of the league (unless you're the Spurs) as players and coaches instead manufacture good looks from beyond the arc, or carve out a lane for a dunk or layup.
Back in the 2002-03 season, teams averaged 29.8 field goal attempts from mid-range per game. In 2018-19, the number has more than halved to just 14.2 attempts per game. Not even the Spurs (who are clinging on to the life of the mid-range jump shot) are attempting that many and they lead the league with 27.8 attempts per game this season.
With the focus on efficiency, the league's current effective field goal percentage is only 0.2% behind last seasons record-breaking 52.1%.
.png)
With teams averaging more three-point attempts than they ever have (31.4 3PA's per game) while posting close to NBA-record shooting numbers, we're seeing mammoth scores being put up throughout the opening month.
Rereading & Rewriting The Rulebook
It's the rule changes that could see these numbers be sustained over the full season.
By reducing the shot clock following offensive rebounds from 24 to 14 seconds, possessions are ending faster. Therefore, there are extra possessions. It's a change most people expected to have a slight influence on pace and field goal attempts per game.
It's the adjustment to officiating that is having the largest impact, though.
With a focus on "freedom of movement", referees have been clamping down on defenders holding, pulling and draping themselves over ball-handlers and screen-setters. The standard wrap around the waist when negotiating a screen is a foul this year.
All-Access at NBA Referee Training Camp: VP, Head of Referee Development & Training Monty McCutchen talks to referees about an important point of education for 2018-19 – freedom of movement. pic.twitter.com/4jHFyqFEs7
— NBA Official (@NBAOfficial) September 29, 2018
A defender trying to "hold, push, charge into, impede the progress of an opponent by extending a hand, arm, leg or knee" have always been fouls per the NBA's official rule book. However, they're only now being consistently called.
As a result, whistles are up, free throws are up, and points are up. An extra 3.3 free throws are being attempted on last season for an extra 1.7 points.
With points up higher than anybody expected, so are Overs punters. But don't get too excited as it probably won't last.
While teams could very well keep scoring at this inflated rate, the markets will adjust. We've seen them do so already over the last week. With an average of 49.5% of games finishing over the total in every season since 2003, we can expect the current 51.7% to regress further.
The edge has long been in the under, and despite what we've seen over the first month, that edge might apply now more than ever.
READ: Steph Curry Is Even More Valuable Than You Think
Get all our sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.
Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!
