Will Richmond Make the 2023 AFL Finals?
Last updated: Apr 18, 2023, 2:42AM | Published: Apr 17, 2023, 8:24AM
Richmond has dropped below a 50% probability of making the 2023 AFL finals.
According to Stats Insider's AFL predictive model, after five rounds of football, the Tigers have a 40.5% chance of making this year's top eight.
Richmond, after starting as the third-most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership, has dropped below 50% to make the finals, with 10 teams currently above the Tigers.
The drop in probability comes after a 122-78 loss to Sydney on Friday night, Richmond's fourth loss of the season, which leaves the club in the bottom four.
The upcoming schedule doesn't get any easier for Richmond, with the Anzac Day Eve clash against our second-most probable team for the 2023 AFL premiership, Melbourne, looming on Monday night.
READ: Is St Kilda the Best Team in the AFL?
2023 AFL Top 8 Probabilities
| Team | Winning Probability |
| Collingwood Magpies | 91.6% |
| Melbourne Demons | 84.2% |
| Sydney Swans | 75.5% |
| Brisbane Lions | 73.5% |
| St Kilda Saints | 72.4% |
| Geelong Cats | 70.9% |
| Carlton Blues | 64.4% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 60.2% |
| Adelaide Crows | 51.8% |
| Essendon Bombers | 50.9% |
| Richmond Tigers | 40.5% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.
Collingwood Top Minor Premiership Probabilities
Collingwood is the most likely team to finish on top of the ladder at the end of the 2023 home and away season, according to Stats Insider's AFL futures probabilities.
The Magpies beat the previously undefeated St Kilda 70-64 in Round 5, which saw Collingwood rise to the top of our minor premiership probabilities at 31.5%.
The next-best team in the probabilities is Melbourne at 16.8%, with Sydney at 8.9% and Brisbane at 8.4% third and fourth, respectively.
The league-leading St Kilda is the fifth most likely team to win the minor premiership with our 2023 AFL futures model at 8.2%.
Collingwood's minor premiership favouritism comes after the previous most probable team, Melbourne, suffered a 77-104 loss to Essendon, with Collingwood rising above the Demons in the process.
Collingwood's next match is against second-placed Essendon on Anzac Day.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
