Will the 2023 NRL Top Eight Change before Finals?
Last updated: Aug 30, 2023, 3:45AM | Published: Aug 16, 2023, 8:43AM
Heading into the final round of the 2023 NRL season, the top eight is still yet to be decided.
Stats Insider's NRL futures model has five teams at 100% to make the top eight, with the Panthers, Storm, Broncos, Warriors and Knights all set to play in the 2023 finals series, with the Sharks all but assured of making the top eight.
From there, the model only gives four teams a chance of making the 2023 NRL top eight.
The Raiders are the most likely team to make the top eight at 81.4%, with the Rabbitohs the only other team given a better chance of making the finals than not at 53.2%.
The Roosters at 42.7% and the Cowboys at 22.7% round out the teams given a chance of playing in the NRL finals.
Stats Insider's NRL expert said the Raiders are the most likely team out of all four to make the 2023 NRL finals, despite going in with a 33% probability of defeating the Sharks in their final matchup.
"While the Raiders do go in as underdogs against the Sharks, even if they were to lose, other results could still see them make the finals," he said.
"For the Raiders to miss, the Cowboys would likely need to defeat the Panthers, who at this stage have avoided rested all their star players like other teams.
"That’s part of the reason the model currently has Canberra at 81.4% to make the top eight. It is not out of the realms of possibility that the Raiders could miss the finals, but their probabilities right now have them more likely than not to make it."
The other major matchup this weekend sees the Roosters and the Rabbitohs facing off for what could be the final spot in the eight.
The Stats Insider expert said the Friday night clash will determine who plays in the 2023 NRL finals.
"For all intents and purposes, Souths vs Rabbitohs is a do-or-die clash," he said.
"There is also a slim possibility a win won’t be enough for Souths and they could miss out on finals if the Cowboys beat the Panthers by 37 and the Raiders beat the Sharks, but as it stands, this game should decide who will make the top eight and who will miss out."
2023 NRL Finals Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Penrith Panthers | 100% |
| Melbourne Storm | 100% |
| Brisbane Broncos | 100% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 100% |
| New Zealand Warriors | 100% |
| Newcastle Knights | 100% |
| Canberra Raiders | 81.4% |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 53.2% |
| Sydney Roosters | 42.7% |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 22.7% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
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(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
