World Cup Forensics: Australia vs Peru

Australia comes into their final group stage game where nothing less than a win will do if they want to qualify for the knockout stages ahead of Denmark, who kickoff against France whilst the Socceroos play Peru.

Peru are already knocked out but have shown plenty of determination in losses to Denmark and France, and will by no means be an easy task for the Australians to defeat. At the time of writing, Peru are $2.25 favourites, with Australia coming in at $3.10 and the draw at $3.50.

Tomi Juric is likely to come into the starting XI with Andrew Nabbout's dislocated shoulder ruling him out of the rest of the tournament. Daniel Arzani's bright showing against Denmark has given Bert van Marwijk something to think about as a potential starter ahead of Robbie Kruse who was poor against the Danish.

For the Peruvians, Renato Tapia is a doubt after being concussed against Denmark, and as a result, Pedro Aquino could keep his spot in midfield. Jefferson Farfan has been ruled out due to the head injury he suffered against France.

Farfan is a huge out for Peru, with his experience, width, creativity and attacking flair a key part of how Peru operate moving forward and transitioning defence into attack.

Australia win just 30% of simulations according to Stats Insider Models, with Peru winning 43% of the time and a Draw coming in at 27%. That actually makes Peru a reasonable play at $2.45 if you can find them at that price.

There is value in going Under 2.5 Goals at $1.75, as this will definitely be a tense, grind-it-out style of game, but both sides will attack which makes me wary. With Australia needing a win and Peru having nothing to lose having already been eliminated, it will create an entertaining and open contest.

Both teams to score doesn't lean heavily either way, with just a 3% edge to Yes. With the style of game we're anticipating and the lack of a real edge tells us this is a stay away market.

Whilst they'll need France's help with a comfortable win over Denmark (goal difference matters), Australia can only focus on their outcome in Sochi and if they can take care of business that's the first step, with Bert van Marwijk already making it clear they can't stress about what's happening 1000 miles away in Moscow.

Australia have threatened in attack, but have wasted chances and not been clinical. Their goals have come from the penalty spot, and that won't do against Peru. Matthew Leckie, Tom Rogic, Juric and Kruse (or Arzani) need to take their chances. This could also be Aaron Mooy's chance to shine, and he was excellent against Denmark.

The Socceroos will need to be wary of Peru's attacking threat, particularly because of space they will allow the Peruvians while they go in search of goals. Peru have been wasteful with none of their 27 shots finding the back of the net, but that could change against Australia.

Nevertheless, an enthralling encounter awaits as fans nationwide nervously hope things break the right way and sees Australia into the round of 16.

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