World Cup Forensics: England vs Belgium

England meets Belgium in their World Cup Matchday 3 showdown, but unfortunately, it doesn't have the same value in reality as it does on paper. With both teams already qualified, it's now about who wants to finish first and who wants to finish second.

That might seem strange, but finishing second would leave said team in the right side of the draw, which is considered the "easier" route to the Final. The team who finishes top will go into the left side of the draw, which on paper is certainly the harder route.

Here are the qualified teams on the left side:

• Uruguay vs Portugal
• France vs Argentina
• Brazil vs Mexico
• Group G Winner vs Group H Runner-Up

Here are the qualified teams on the right side:

• Spain vs Russia
• Croatia vs Denmark
• Sweden vs Switzerland
• Group H Winner vs Group G Runner-Up

With that in mind, it's any wonder the reports coming out of the Belgian camp is that they'd happily rotate their squad against England and hope to finish second, not first.

England are expected to make a few changes, including Captain Harry Kane despite reports that Kane wants to start to keep his Golden Boot chances at their highest. Kane currently leads the tournament with 5 goals.

That makes this clash a definite No Bet encounter. With too many variables we can't account for, it's time to sit back and just enjoy some football.

The Win-Draw-Win market is a definite stay away. England are winning 39% of simulations, Belgium 35% with a draw coming in at 26%.

The goals market is where we find some value. There's a 7% edge on Under 2.5 Goals and with a potentially boring, friendly-style encounter awaiting it might be the best play. We saw France and Denmark play out a similar style encounter and may be in for a repeat here.

The Stats Insider Model can't find an edge on the Both Teams To Score market, and I don't blame it. This one is very hard to predict with too many variables at play.

Kyle Walker and Ruben Loftus-Cheek will almost certainly not play, with both players on yellow cards and no need to be risked. Eric Dier is already confirmed to be given his first start of the tournament by Gareth Southgate. Dele Alli may return in place of Loftus-Cheek after overcoming the knock which kept him out against Panama.

Roberto Martinez has hinted at as many as nine changes to his side, with the Belgian reserves set to be given their chance. Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard both have picked up knocks and it would be a surprise to see them play any part. Jan Vertonghen, Kevin De Bruyne and Thomas Meunier have yellow cards and are expected to be amongst those rested.

At the end of the day, there is too much happening behind the scenes for me to confidently bet on the result. I will however anticipate a "bore-draw" and put my money behind the Under 2.5 Goals Market with confidence.

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