World Cup Forensics: England vs Panama

England can secure their spot in the knockout stages of the World Cup with a win over Panama on Sunday in Nizhny Novgorod. They should be very confident but shouldn't underestimate Panama, as we've already seen upsets happen in this tournament.

Dele Alli suffered a thigh injury against Tunisia and has returned to training, but he isn't expected to start on Sunday. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is expected to take his place after notes of Gareth Southgate's starting 11 were leaked to the media earlier this week.

There's also buzz that Marcus Rashford could replace a struggling Raheem Sterling, who hasn't scored for England in 24 appearances. Panama meanwhile, will go in with the same starting 11 that took on Belgium and lost 3-0.

There isn't a heap of value to be found in the Win-Draw-Win markets, with England at $1.22 winning 81% of simulations, a draw at 12% and a bit of a stretch at $6.00, whilst Panama is an extremely long shot at $17.00, winning only 7% of the time.

There isn't a heap of value to be found in the Over/Under Goals markets, but Both Teams to Score is a different story.

At 65% likelihood of only one team scoring, perhaps betting on England to win to nil or finding a Handicap/Asian Handicap that offers value is the play here. England should be able to build on their solid defence, providing a platform for them to attack Panama.

The question for Panama is whether they can replicate Tunisia's gameplan, which frustrated England. That being said, the Three Lions had plenty of chances but weren't clinical. If they can create the same chances against Panama, it could be a rout.

Harry Kane will be the main focus, but if Sterling (or Rashford), Jesse Lingard and Loftus-Cheek can wreak havoc around the Panama defence they might not be able to hold firm for long.

If England can get an early goal and force Panama to attack them, this will be an open contest they can feast on. Nevertheless, Panama needs to attack to have any chance of qualifying so this should be an entertaining game.

Look for England to win in a rout, but how many goals will be determined by how efficient they can be with the chances they do create.

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