World Cup Forensics: France vs Argentina

The destiny of Lionel Messi's International career writes it's latest chapter tonight, as a struggling Argentina takes on a very talented but underperforming French squad in what promises to be a sensational clash in the Round of 16.

Argentina were on the brink of elimination and Jorge Sampaoli would have been extremely worried about his job security, but the Argentine's beat Nigeria 2-1 and found a way to get things done.

France qualified promptly for the round of 16, but haven't hit anywhere near top gear yet. Their attack hasn't flowed and Didier Deschamps faces some interesting tactical decisions ahead of tonight's clash.

Benjamin Mendy will miss out for France through injury after picking up a knock, whilst Argentina come into the game at full strength.

France are winning 47% of Stats Insider's 10000 simulations, with Argentina at just 25% and the Draw at 28%. So by SI's calculations, the French are deserving favourites, and I'm inclined to agree. We just haven't seen enough non-Messi quality to back Argentina in here.

Two teams in red-hot form is hardly the case here, and this has all the makings of a scrappy contest that goes Under 2.5 Goals, which has a 6% edge according to the Stats Insider Model.

There's also a 6% edge in favour in Both Teams Not Scoring, but I don't have a lot of confidence in this, or at least enough to put money behind it unless it's France Winning to Nil.

Argentina have the opportunity to become the first South American team to beat France at a World Cup since Argentina beat France in 1978. Will it happen again 40 years later?

They'll need plenty from Messi, who is yet to score in the Knockout Stages - 666 minutes, 0 goals for the Argentine dynamo.

Both teams will need to be wary of their discipline, with French players Paul Pogba, Blaise Matuidi and Corentin Tolisso all one booking away from suspension. For Argentina it is even more precarious, with Ever Banega, Gabriel Mercado, Javier Mascherano, Lionel Messi, Marcos Acuna and Nicolas Otamendi all on yellow cards.

France has shown in flashes that the quality there can put it all together, but Deschamps has yet to find the right mix of players in attack. Argentina has spluttered through the tournament and don't fill me with confidence at all.

Defensively France are much more solid than Argentina, and that might be the difference here. But Argentina's midfield has hardly fired either, so Paul Pogba has the potential to be the difference here. He makes the French midfield tick and his combination with N'Golo Kante's all-action style is what opens things up in attack for France.

This is Messi's moment though. His legacy is defined more and more with every performance, and Argentina will need him to drag them over the line if they can't overcome their rumoured internal conflict.

France to win, but it'll be a grind. 2-1 France.

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