World Cup Forensics: Iran vs Portugal

Iran could cause a boil over in Group B tonight if they can upset Portugal in the final game of the Group Stage. Nothing short of a win will do for the Iranians, who will need the 3 points to jump above both Portugal and Spain.

The Spanish take on Morocco at the same time needing a result to secure qualification, which spices up proceedings.

Normally a deep-lying defending, counter-attacking outfit, it will be intriguing to see how Carlos Queiroz's men set up in a game that is a must-win encounter.

Portugal can line up as they have usually done, absorbing pressure and counter-attacking at break-neck speed, which gets the best out of Cristiano Ronaldo and his fellow forwards. Needing only a draw to progress, they'll likely look to punish Iran's enthusiasm and a requirement to win.

Portugal are winning 65% of Stats Insider Model Simulations, with Iran winning just 13% of the time and a draw occurring 22% of the time. 

The game is hitting the Under 2.5 Goals mark 59% of the time, which is interesting. It should be a scrappy affair considering what's at stake and what each team needs, and I think Under 2.5 Goals combined with Portugal winning offering good value at $3.10.

Alternatively, if you want to play it a different way; Portugal to Win to Nil at $2.40 is a pretty good value play. They know how to grind out results and it was the basis of their EURO 2016 success, they've replicated it in their two games so far and don't expect that to change now.

Iran shouldn't be underestimated though - they have proven to be a tough opponent and gave Spain a real test in their previous game. They had 12 consecutive clean sheets in World Cup qualifying and showed themselves to be a hard-working and flexible tactical unit. Queiroz's men are more than capable of winning this game.

But it was one mistake against Spain that cost them, and they can't afford a repeat of that against Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo is in devastating form and won't hesitate to punish any carelessness.

The major difference between Iran and the other so-called lesser nations playing at the World Cup is that Iran has been able to create chances for themselves. Whilst a defence-first unit, they generated chances against not only Morocco but Spain as well.

Portugal are entirely built around Ronaldo's talents, but his fellow attackers and players need to start providing him more support. If he has a rare off day in front of goal they could be in plenty of trouble. Gonçalo Guedes, Bernardo Silva, Andre Silva and co need to start stepping up, or a disastrous Group Stage exit like they suffered in 2014 could await them.

Iran are expected to line up similarly to their first two games, with Ehsan Hajsafi's injury may rule the defender out of contention. Joao Moutinho hasn't trained for a few days due to illness and looks unlikely to recover in time for Portugal.

Whilst Iran have put in a brilliant campaign compared to expectations so far, this is where their journey ends. Expect Portugal to relish the space afforded to them by an Iranian side chasing goals, and win in the process. 2-0 Portugal.

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