World Cup Forensics: Russia vs Saudi Arabia

Russia and Saudi Arabia, two sides who come into this tournament amidst huge internal pressure, will kick off the 2018 World Cup tonight. Stanislav Cherchesov's men are expected to reach the latter stages of the tournament and will need to take advantage of what is a soft group on paper, while Saudi Arabia has fired multiple coaches and will be expecting at minimum an appearance in the knockout stages.

Whether Russia can deliver on their expectations is a whole other matter. Their squad is flawed and has struggled in the lead up to the tournament. Since their 3-3 draw with Spain in November 2017, they've gone winless in the 4 games since. A 3-0 loss to Brazil, a 3-1 loss to France, a 1-0 loss to Austria and 1-1 draw with Turkey doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

The Stats Insider model has Russia winning the match 67 percent of the time, but at $1.45 I'm not exactly inspired to throw my money at a result that is far from certain.

Saudi Arabia's run into Russia 2018 hasn't been perfect either, whilst they beat Algeria and Greece 2-0 respectively in early May, those teams had nothing to play for considering neither qualified for the World Cup.

When the Green Falcons have come up against stronger opposition, they've struggled. An Italian team which amazingly missed World Cup qualification beat them 2-1, Peru worked them over in a 3-0 loss, and an experimental German team beat them 2-1 but had the game practically finished when they led 2-0 at halftime.

A draw at $4.25 really appeals to me though. Neither side will thump in a lot of goals, and although the Russians are set up to defend heavily with Cherchesov's defence-first system they are still leaky at the back.

With both teams in such flaky recent form, perhaps it's time to look at niche markets in search of value.

Here is the market that appeals to me most. Under 2.5 goals at $1.65 has just enough value to be the play here. With neither team inspiring a heap of confidence, why trust them to win or even draw this game let alone with your money behind it?

Here's another interesting value play that could be of use. You can bet on only one team to score at $1.75, or take your chances on both teams at $2.63. The latter is too risky in my opinion, but I like the odds of only one team hitting the back of the net.

Without a doubt, tonight's clash is not the blockbuster the world's biggest tournament would open with given a choice, but these are the cards we've been dealt.

Russia are the lowest ranked of all 32 nations competing at the World Cup, but Saudi Arabia are only 3 places ahead of them. Former Manchester United winger Andrei Kanchelskis says it is the "worst Russian team" he has seen during his lifetime.

It's 1432 days since Mario Götze's tournament winner in 2014, but the World Cup is back at last. Drink it in and bet on Under 2.5 while you're at it.

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