World Cup Forensics: Uruguay vs France
Last updated: Jul 6, 2018, 4:41AM | Published: Jul 6, 2018, 4:41AM
Uruguay meets France in a highly anticipated clash at the Nizhny Novgorod Stadium, as Edinson Cavani looks to be in huge doubt as to whether he'll be able to play after getting injured in the win against Portugal.
El Matador has scored three of the Uruguayan's seven goals, and Uruguay are going to need him if they are going to match up against a French side who might be hitting their straps after an incredible 4-3 win over Argentina last time out.
La Celeste finished in fourth place in the 2010 edition of the World Cup and were quarter-finalists in 2014, but they'll be sweating on Cavani's fitness, as he is not expected to start and may not play as he's trained alone all week. This might see Oscar Tabarez switch to a 4-3-2-1 from his preferred 4-4-2 that he's utilised so far.
Le Blues come into this clash without Blaise Matuidi who is suspended, whilst Djibril Sidibe is still an injury concern but Benjamin Pavard is safe to start at right-back in his place.
France comes into the game as favourites after a strong performance last time out, as Kylian Mbappé led them with an incredible display of athleticism that tore the Argentine defence to shreds.
Uruguay are winning just 24% of Stats Insider's 10,000 simulations, with France winning 45% and a draw at 30%. It appears Cavani's absence has really resonated with the bookmakers.
Under 2.5 Goals has a 9% edge, but at $1.45 I'm not seeing a heap of value. Uruguay's defence will be as stingy as ever, and barring a French onslaught like we saw against Argentina this one is unlikely to be a shootout. Not to mention, Uruguay possesses one of the world's best defences.
There's an 8% edge on Both Teams To Score - No, but at $1.60 that just isn't tempting enough. France at $2.00 (Anytime Result) is what stands out most to me.
Antoine Griezmann needs to step up for France if they are to win the whole tournament. Mbappé and Paul Pogba have been superb thus far but there is no room for passengers at this stage of the tournament. Griezmann must shine.
The burden of Cavani's absence means Luis Suárez has to muster all his experience and talent now more than ever, but he'll also need to show the experience to guide his younger teammates through a level of pressure they'll have never seen before.
This battle shapes up as a huge battle on the tactical front, and Tabarez will need to gameplan well particularly if Cavani does not take any part in the game. There's every chance Uruguay will try to turn this into a scrappy affair that goes beyond 90 minutes and into extra time.
France have enough quality to get it done, and I think they will one way or another. But with Uruguay's resilience, you just never know. They'll make them earn it.
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