World Cup Forensics: Uruguay vs Portugal

A red-hot Uruguay comes into this Round of 16 tie with Portugal off the back of some sensational form, whilst the Portuguese are led by the talismanic presence of Cristiano Ronaldo who already has four goals in the World Cup.

Portugal's form isn't nearly as good as their opponents, having had their Captain drag them through the Group Stage. Uruguay meanwhile didn't concede a goal en route to the Knockout Stage.

They swiftly dispatched Russia 3-0 in their last game, and showed themselves to be a potential dark horse in a tournament where the big nations have struggled.

William Carvalho could miss for Portugal with a minor injury, but Gelson Martins and Raphael Guerreiro are fit to start. Jose Gimenez should also be ready to return after sitting out Uruguay's final group game with Russia.

The Stats Insider Model is having a hard time splitting the two teams. Uruguay win 35% of simulations, with Portugal narrowly ahead on 36% despite being the underdog with the bookies. A draw comes in at 28%.

Uruguay's stern defence and Portugal's grind-it-out style has all the makings of Under 2.5 Goals, and Stats Insider is giving a 10% edge to the Under.

Stats Insider is also leaning towards only one team scoring, with an 8% edge.

The question for Portugal is can Cristiano Ronaldo's teammates stand tall alongside him because they haven't in the opening 3 games of the tournament. There is quality there, but if Ronaldo fails will anyone be able to save the day?

Uruguay will take a lot of confidence from their Group Stage form, and Rodrigo Bentancur is the only player one booking away from suspension. Portugal meanwhile has Adrien Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Cedric Soares, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ricardo Quaresma and Raphael Guerreiro all one booking away from a ban.

Something to keep an eye on though - Uruguay are yet to score from open play but have been lethal from set pieces. One in-direct free kick, one direct free-kick and 3 corners have provided their goals.

Portugal need to be a lot better than they have been or they'll be going home. I think they'll win this one, but it'll take extra time and potentially penalties. Enjoy the chaos.

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