World Cup 2022 Golden Boot: Top Goal Scorer Odds and Best Bets

Winning the Golden Boot (top goal scorer) at the FIFA World Cup is a crowning achievement for any offensive-minded player.

Unlike the Golden Ball we discussed last week, the Golden Boot is simple – finish with the most goals, win the award.

Of course, players whose teams are in the final four teams left have the best chance of winning the award, given they play the most games, which makes Colombia's James Rodriguez's success in 2014 even more remarkable, considering his team lost in the quarter finals and he wasn't even the main goalscoring option on paper.

A decent group and a chance to win the tournament will win a player the Golden Boot in 2022, where history indicates six goals is the winning total – quite remarkably, there hasn't been a tie since 1994, while only Brazil's Ronaldo (eight goals) is the only player to win with more than six since 1970.

With that in mind, it's time to look at who are the best chances of winning the Golden Boot at the FIFA World Cup 2022, with odds thanks to Betfair.

World Cup 2022 Golden Boot odds

• $9.80: Harry Kane
• $10.50: Kylian Mbappe
• $13.50: Lionel Messi
• $15: Karim Bemzema
• $15.50: Neymar
• $20: Cristiano Ronaldo
• $23: Lautaro Martinez
• $28: Romelu Lukaku, Memphis Depay
• $29: Richarlison

Odds thanks to Betfair correct as of 15 November, 2022.

Harry Kane (England)

• England World Cup Win Probability: 10.1%
• Kane Golden Boot Odds with Betfair: $9.80

History is against Kane here, as no player has ever won this award in back-to-back tournaments – Thomas Muller matched his 2010 award-winning tally of 5 goals in 2014, but was pipped by the aforementioned Rodriguez.

Still, the English skipper is clearly his team's best avenue to goal, and has form in the Premier League where he has put 12 in the back of the net from his 15 matches for the Spurs, averaging 3.7 shots on goal per game.

Even more encouraging are his raw numbers – 50.9% of his shots have been on target according to Soccerment, while goals against Liverpool and Newcastle in the last month shows his form against good teams.

Kane will come up against the US, Wales and Iran in the group stages, with multiple opportunities at a brace or better, likely.

RELATED: England vs Iran prediction

Lautaro Martinez (Argentina)

• Argentina World Cup Win Probability: 8.8%
• Martinez Golden Boot Odds with Betfair: $23

It's easy to think of just Lionel Messi when it comes to Argentina, but if the team is going to be a true contender to win the World Cup, they'll be expecting Martinez to find some form.

The 25-year-old has quite a remarkable record. At international level, Martinez has 40 caps for 21 goals. In the past three completed seasons for Inter Milan in Serie A, he scored 52 goals.

RELATED: Argentina World Cup Preview 2022

Perhaps it's coincided with Inter's slight drop-off to start the season, or the fact Edin Dzeko has been a more commanding presence in recent times, but Martinez has seen his shots reduce from 4.6 to 3.7 per game this season, while his shots on target numbers have reduced from 44% to 35%.

Still, the small, well-rounded striker is going to be one of the focal points of the Argentinian attack and with a group of Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland, it's entirely possible his team finishes on top and then only has to face Denmark in the next round. 

RELATED: Argentina vs Saudi Arabia prediction

Neymar (Brazil)

• Brazil World Cup Win Probability: 15.6%
• Neymar Golden Boot Odds with Betfair: $15.50

At PSG, he is one of many elite moving pieces whereas for Brazil, Neymar has far more control on offensive proceedings and drifts into more central, striker-like positions, even if he isn't exclusively playing the role.

The main trait necessary for a Golden Boot winner needs to possess is being the focal point and best finisher for their team, and Neymar's aura alone tends to get him plenty of shots at international level, and plenty of goals.

RELATED: Brazil World Cup 2022 Preview

At club level, he's only averaging 2.4 shots on goal, yet he has scored a goal with 33% of his shots, equating to a better per-minute ratio than Lionel Messi, Karim Benzema, Harry Kane and other elite attackers across Europe.

Brazil is stacked with attacking talent – Vinicius Junior, Antony, Rodrygo, Richarlison, Raphinha and Gabriel Martinelli have all been in scintillating club form, yet all will defer to Neymar as the main threat heading into the tournament. 

RELATED: Brazil vs Serbia prediction

MORE: FIFA World Cup 2022 winner probabilities

Dusan Vlahovic (Serbia)

• Serbia World Cup Win Probability: 1.1%
• Vlahovic Golden Boot Odds with Betfair: $110

Can Serbia be one of these teams that emerges out of nowhere?

It's a tough group, with Brazil, Switzerland and Cameroon all having varying levels of likelihood to qualify for the next round, yet none can comprehensively be ruled out.

Yet none of these teams quite have a young striker that has the physicality, nor the clinical finishing of Vlahovic.

The 22-year-old had already emerged as a burgeoning star talent in the 2020/21 Serie A campaign for Fiorentina, before 17 goals in 21 games the next season resulted in a swift move to Juventus.

Since that point, Vlahovic 13 goals in 25 appearances for one of the best teams in the world, while his last 12 caps for Serbia have resulted in 7 goals.

Serbia will certainly be relying on its attack to draw any sort of success from the World Cup and they almost always operate with both Vlahovic and Fulham's Alexander Mitrovic on the pitch to start their matches.

While the latter is an excellent finisher and a real cultural lift for his country, there is something eerily inevitable about the way Vlahovic plays. At his best, the way Vlahovic moves has shades of Erling Haaland to it.

It wouldn't surprise to see Vlahovic finish the tournament with a handful of goals and improve his profile even more.

RELATED: Serbia vs Brazil prediction

Kylian Mbappe and Karim Benzema (France)

• France World Cup Win Probability: 11.6%
• Mbappe Golden Boot Odds with Betfair: $10.50
• Benzema Golden Boot Odds with Betfair: $15

Why feature these two so late?

Mbappe is a cheat code and seemingly runs the most powerful club in the world at 23 years of age, while Benzema is just coming off the Ballon D'Or.

Quite frankly, as France seeks more success at the international level, it's both of these players could go crazy this tournament.

RELATED: France World Cup 2022 Preview

Mbappe himself is scoring a goal every 95.5 minutes, one of the best figures of any World Cup participant despite being part of a legendry trio at PSG, while Benzema has only featured 7 times for Madrid, scoring on 5 occasions.

The young starlet will be pushed out onto the left for France to accommodate the veteran, although it shouldn't matter given his speed will cause chaos.

Of the two, Mbappe is the more likely to win the Golden Boot, but if Benzema is fully fit, it isn't out of the question to see teammates tie for the award for the first time since Brazil's Garrancha and Vava were two of six players to win it.

RELATED: France vs Australia prediction

MORE: Betting tips for every FIFA World Cup 2022 game

Robert Lewandowski (Poland)

• Poland World Cup Win Probability: 0.9%
• Lewandowski Golden Boot Odds with Betfair: $50

Poland will sense a strong opportunity to finish above Mexico and Saudi Arabia, perhaps even pushing Argentina to the limit in a bid to experience a deep tournament run.

They've not got out of the group stage since 1986 and truth be told, they've been average against strong opposition.

However, it's the last chance for them to rely on their legendary striker and under a new manager, Poland finally has multiple attacking threats.

For the veteran Lewandowski, it's been pretty simple at Barcelona – shoot and score. He has taken 51 shots, 29 of them have been on targets and 13 have been goals in La Liga. He's averaging five shots a game in the Champions League too, scoring foive goals.

It has taken time for prolific striker to adapt to having a strong partner up front, but the teething problems should have been sorted by now.

If Poland finally escape the group stage, the 34-year-old would've put a few in the back of the net.

RELATED: Poland vs Ghana prediction

MORE: FIFA World Cup 2022 tournament simulator

Last 10 World Cup Golden Boot winners

• 2018 World Cup: Harry Kane, England (six goals)
• 2014 World Cup: James Rodriguez, Colombia (six)
• 2010 World Cup: Thomas Muller, Germany (five)
• 2006 World Cup: Miroslav Klose, Germany (five)
• 2002 World Cup: Ronaldo, Brazil (eight)
• 1998 World Cup: Davor Suker, Croatia (six)
• 1994 World Cup: Oleg Salenko, Russia & Hristo Stoichkov, Bulgaria (six)
• 1990 World Cup: Salvatore Schillaci, Italy (six)
• 1986 World Cup: Gary Linkeker, England (six)
• 1982 World Cup: Paolo Rossi, Italy (six)

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