The finals teams are set for the 2019 NRL season and the Stats Insider Model has crunched the numbers and spat out premiership probabilities for each side.

It's not going to be popular, but a rematch of the 2018 Grand Final is a significant possibility. The Storm are favoured over the Roosters with the pair head and shoulders above the other six teams.

None in the peloton chasing the favourites jump out as genuine smokeys, but an argument can be made for the Raiders, Rabbitohs, Eels and Sharks to be relevant up until the first weekend of October.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS

When talking about the Roosters attack, it's the left-side that receives the credit. A whopping 50% of their 108 tries this season have come on that side of the field. However, it's on the right where the Roosters can make some noise throughout the finals.

Opposing defences will spend all week gearing towards Sydney's left-side attack. Plans will be in place to close down Luke Keary and limit the time he has with the football. Should he shift it wide, all the attention turns to Latrell Mitchell, especially close to the line.

It's Joseph Manu and Brett Morris on the right edge that can catch the opposition out. Everybody knows what to expect from Morris given the career he's built on consistency. Meanwhile, Manu might be the best centre in the competition not named Latrell Mitchell. This pair is dangerous and showed plenty in the final game of the regular season.

If an opposition team can find the formula for shutting down the Roosters left-side attack, there is premiership-winning quality on the right ready to do the job.

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 32%

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

The first-choice 17 Rabbitohs make up a premiership contending team. Evident throughout their 10-1 record across the first 11 rounds of the season, this team can play. They all need to be out there together, though.

Sam, George and Tom Burgess can't stay on the field for a variety of reasons. Sam serves yet another suspension this week while George returns from his lengthy ban. Tom is better behaved but has sat on the sideline with an injury for the last month.

Dane Gagai is out this week with a hamstring injury while the same injury has limited Braidon Burns to just eight full games in 2019.

Alex Johnstone has battled injury all year, and James Roberts is new to the club with his recent suspension not helping him build any cohesion on the edges.

The Rabbitohs were among the premiership favourites to start the season and still are. It feels like it might be one of 'those' years, though. The sort that never quite gets going late in the piece due to the turnover in personnel every other week.

Unless the Rabbitohs can get healthy and avoid the judiciary, they're going to fall short of the big one this season.

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 9.9%

MELBOURNE STORM

Many will point to Melbourne's NRL-best defence conceding just 12.5 per game as the deciding factor. However, the defence didn't get the job done in 2018. This new-look spine needs to manufacture points.

The Storm changed the makeup of their spine close to the finals and it will end up a masterstroke or their downfall.

Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen wear the six, seven and one jerseys, but the Storm are effectively playing with three fullbacks and Cameron Smith.

No matter who is in the spine (Brodie Croft may still feature) Smith pulls the strings. As Craig Bellamy has tinkered in recent weeks, Smith has had more of an influence in their attack. You can really see how Smith inserts himself into the game and picks his spots at the moment.

He doesn't have the speed or elusiveness some of his counterparts do, but he has a menu of options every time he touches the ball with the defence often caught watching the master at work.

With the defence unsure of themselves, Smith is given a ridiculous amount of time to make his pass here:

We know Smith is going to play a leading role and do it well more often than not. How the other three key playmakers link up is where the Storm will win or lose the premiership this season.

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 34.8%

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Discipline will determine how far the Raiders go this season.

It's not so much the number of penalties; four teams concede more penalties than Canberra's 7.2 per game.

It's the timing and the nature of them.

While the Round 22 win over the Storm in Melbourne is one of the best in 2019, the Raiders can't expect to complete a comeback like that in September. Two sin-bins to hand the opposition an 18-0 lead ends your season at this time of the year.

Had Kyle Flanagan taken his kicking boots to Pointsbet Stadium in Round 24, a lack of discipline would have contributed to a Raiders loss and seen them head into the finals on a three-game losing streak.

Luck isn't the right word to use here; the Raiders deserve all the credit for reeling in those leads and ending up on top. However, there is an element of luck required to win games like those.

Canberra's best bet is to clean up their discipline and avoid the poor periods that plague them. Don't give the opposition a leg up and leave victory to chance.

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 10.2%

MANLY SEA EAGLES

With the squad the Sea Eagles have been forced to send out for Week 1, the Stats Insider Model's 3.1%  to win the premiership could seem generous. 

Tom Trbojevic, Taniela Paseka, Joel Thompson and Curtis Sironen are all done for the season. Morgan Boyle, Brad Parker and Jack Gosiewski are all under injury clouds, and Marty Taupau is serving a suspension this week.

They're so desperate for bodies a special exemption has been granted for Tony Williams to join the side from outside the 30-man squad.

If the Sea Eagles are any chance of making it through the finals and even entertaining the idea of a fairytale run to the Grand Final, they can't make things easier on the opposition by making errors and conceding penalties.

Manly make the fifth-most errors in the competition with 10.6 per game while conceding the third most penalties at 7.4 per game.

With their backs against the wall already, the Sea Eagles must avoid putting more pressure on themselves. Give their still capable attack a chance to find points and make a game of it.

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 3.1%

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CRONULLA SHARKS

We've seen the good and bad of the Sharks all season.

When they're good, the edges are dangerous with Shaun Johnson and Wade Graham pulling the strings and producing points. When the Sharks are bad, they're weak through the middle.

Johnson's right side is lethal and his partnership with Briton Nikora often has opposing defences reeling. The 40 tries the Sharks have scored on the right side is the most in the NRL. With Graham getting healthier and working alongside Bronson Xerri, the left-side attack is becoming just as potent.

This team can score from anywhere but look their best when working to a spot on the field inside the opposition 20-metre line and setting up to shift the ball. 

For the Sharks to be a premiership threat, it all starts in the middle. It's up to Andrew Fifita, Matt Prior, Aaron Woods and Paul Gallen to get the team up the field and into the opposition 20-metre line.

If this aging and inconsistent pack can find four weeks of form, we might just have a premiership smokey on our hands.

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 4.6%

PARRAMATTA EELS

The Eels are the great unknown of the Top 8 teams.

They don't look much better than average a lot of the time.

Their pack lacks superstar quality while the spine doesn't boast the representative talent the genuine contenders do. Out the back, Blake Ferguson, Waqa Blake and Maika Sivo have proven to be dangerous, but finals footy can often take the outside men out of a game and limit their impact.

They've made it this far, though. Playing at Bankwest Stadium in Week 1 provides them with a favourable opportunity to extend their season for another week on Saturday.

If they're to get any further than Week 1 of this finals series, the Eels must focus on defence. The Broncos are the only Top 8 side to concede more points than the Eels' 19.7 per game. It's the biggest question mark surrounding this side when putting them up against the others. Through the middle, in particular.

Only the Warriors and Dragons - two of the three worst defensive teams in the NRL this season - have allowed more tries through the middle than the 25 poured through the Eels.

With so many finals matches turning into arm-wrestles in the middle of the field, the Eels could be exposed defensively. Should they muscle up, though, anything is possible with this group.

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 3.2%

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BRISBANE BRONCOS

They've called themselves the dark horse of the finals, but it's more likely that the Broncos fail to get out of the gates.

In attack, anyway.

Anthony Seibold's attack at the Rabbitohs in 2018 was one of the best in the business. Dominating the left side of the field, everybody looked on the same page — even the defence to a degree. Nevertheless, the Bunnies scored the most points of all 16 teams that year.

It's far from the case at the Broncos in 2019.

In fact, only the Dragons have scored fewer tries on the left-side than the Broncos' 19 this season. As a result, Corey Oates has just 13 tries to his name in 2019 - his fewest since the 2014 season.

Brisbane's attack scoring just 18 points per game ranks 11th in the competition and is the worst of all Top 8 teams. It's managed to get this far on the back of individual brilliance and career years from David Fifita, Payne Haas, Jake Turpin and Kotoni Staggs.

The makeup of the spine is inconsistent and sees a five-eighth playing fullback, a fullback playing five-eighth, and a hooker playing halfback at the moment.

This impressive forward pack can only do so much. Any Broncos success in September will come down to the improvement of those in key playmaking positions.

STATS INSIDER PREMIERSHIP PROJECTION: 2.2%

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