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NFL 2019: Unanswered questions heading into Week Two

They don’t call it ‘National Overreaction Week’ for nothing.

After eight months of patiently waiting the return of actual football games, there’s an understandable tendency to want to treat Week One differently to others.

Fans want to arrive at hard and fast judgments on all they got right and wrong in the off-season, however the reality is there simply isn’t enough data to satisfy so much desire. 

Outside of a few indisputable truths such as the New England Patriots looking devastatingly good, the Miami Dolphins appearing to be appallingly bad, and Lamar Jackson actually looking like an incredibly good quarterback, there are still plenty of questions NFL fans will have to wait to seek clarity on.

Ahead of Week Two, here are four such questions Week Two might be able to shine some light on.

Is the Chicago Bear Offence really that bad?

The Bears and Packers were given the Thursday night time slot to open the NFL season which meant all eyes were on Soldier field, and in particular, head coach Matt Nagy’s offence.

After a season where the Bears’ outrageously good defence propelled them to a 12-4 record and its first division title in nine seasons, the big question for Chicago entering 2019 pertained to its offence and whether it was capable of making a leap.

If we’re going off Week One alone, then the answer to that question is a definitive NO!.

Under the bright lights and with all that attention, the Bears offence served up a week one stinker, scoring only three points on the night and producing just 3.9 yards per play which was the third worst return of any team in Week One.

Third-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky struggled mightily throwing for just 228 yards on a massive 45 attempts without a single touchdown. He was picked off once, and was lucky it wasn’t three or four.

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While Trubisky received much of the flack for the Bears' woeful performance (after all, Chicago took him with pick #2 in 2016 draft with both Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson still on the board) head coach Matt Nagy must also take much of the blame for installing a game plan which played entirely into the Packers’ hands.

With the Bears’ passing game clearly not working, Nagy seemed in no rush whatsoever to either use Trubisky’s mobility, nor hand the ball over to the run game. In Week One, of the teams who opted to launch at least 40 passing attempts, Chicago was one of just four who ran for 15 carries or less.

It’s one thing to lose, it’s another to stay committed to a plan which was clearly not working.

It was a massively deflating opener for the Bears’ faithful; especially with the knowledge their defence is providing them the kind of opportunity to make some serious noise this season.

While Trubisky will have to improve, and improve significantly this season for Chicago to have a chance, Nagy will also have to get a lot more creative to provide his squad the opportunity to do so.

Is running the football actually cool again?

Last season, on average, NFL teams ran ball 25.9 times per game for an average return of 4.4 yards per carry. This weekend, teams ran the ball 24.2 times for 4.5 yards per attempt which on the surface perhaps speaks to the increasing unpopularity of running the ball, however the Week One numbers don’t tell the whole story. 

In fact, a key takeaway from the opening set of games was how staggeringly effective certain teams’ run games were, and which also threatens a league-wide re-evaluation of just how arcane the ground game actually is.

Of the eight teams who ran the ball 30 or more times in Week One, their record was 6-1-1 with that one loss (Indianapolis) occurring in Overtime.

Of the teams who either decided (or whose circumstance dictated) to run the ball 20 or less times, their records were a combined 0-9.

Yes, this is just one week of data, but often lost amid the pitch battles fought within the analytics community regarding the effectiveness of running the ball, teams who are rushing the ball efficiently, and within nuanced packages, are being richly rewarded.

Minnesota, Indianapolis and particularly the Baltimore Ravens will be using their run game as their teams driving forces in 2019, while one of the league’s most admired attacks, the Los Angeles Rams, continue to place a premium on what their run game can provide them.

While mindless, regressive running should be reviled and the concept of ‘establishing in the run’ continually queried, the likes of Baltimore and the Rams should be greatly admired for their commitment to imagining the run game, and perhaps even making it cool again.

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Is what we saw from Tennessee sustainable?

Most people were focusing on the Cleveland Browns’ Week One belly flop rather than the demolition job the Tennessee Titans executed on them.

The Titan’s comprehensive 43-13 beat down of the Browns was equally as dominant as that of New England, Dallas and Baltimore's respective victories, however Tennessee have become used to flying under the radar and having their post-season credentials not taken so seriously.

The Titans crushed Cleveland with one of the weekend’s most balanced performances, and which was led by fifth year quarterback, Marcus Mariota

The 2015 #2 overall pick produced one of his best games in his 57-game career, throwing for 248 yards on 58.3% accuracy, while tossing three touchdowns and posting a 133.3 QB which qualified as the sixth best outing of his career

Mariota hooked up with six different receivers, with AJ Brown, a second round rookie out of Mississippi, leading the way with three catches for 100 yards.

The Titans defence was able to sack Baker Mayfield five times while picking him off on three occasions as well as limiting the Browns offence to just one, third down conversion from their ten attempts which was easily the week's stingiest return.

Over the last three seasons the Titans have worked enormously hard to build the kind of platform which can set themselves up for sustained success. While three consecutive 9-7 seasons have slipped under the NFL radar, the franchise is expecting 2019 to be their definitive breakthrough.

If Week One’s annihilation of Cleveland was anything to go by, their confidence seems well grounded.

Should we be to worrying about Philadelphia’s secondary? 

General Manager Howie Roseman has assembled an incredibly talented, diverse and potent roster which indeed has many thinking the Eagles are capable of wining its second Super Bowl in three seasons.

And while ultimately the Eagles were able to emerge from Week One as winners, the team’s Achilles heel continues to be its secondary which was once again torched by the Washington Redskins and who was largely responsible for digging them into a 0-17 hole which Carson Wentz had to rescue them from.

Philadelphia, along with the Kansas City Chiefs, were one of just two teams on the weekend to win while also conceding more than 8 yards per pass attempt, with the Eagles giving up a massive 370 yards through the air to a not particularly talented Washington offence.

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As we cautioned earlier, we shouldn't overreact too much to Week One data, however Philly’s vulnerable secondary was a theme all through last season and which played a significant part in the Eagles being unable to participate in a second consecutive NFC Championship.

In 2018, the Eagles surrendered no less than 60 plays of more than 20 yards through the air which was a number only the New York Giants (61) and Kansas City Chiefs (65) fared worse in.

On Sunday, and against the Redskins, the Eagles allowed another 4 passes for more than 20 yards with opposition quarterback Case Keenum able to throw three touchdowns and register a 117.6 QB Rating.

The Eagles are in the bottom third of the league in terms of salary cap devoted to its secondary, and while the rest of the squad is unquestionably talented, the Eagles are taking a serious gamble in one of the sport's most risky areas.

Week Two will see if they can tighten up against Matt Ryan's Atlanta and its vaunted set of receivers led by Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.

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James Rosewarne

James is a writer. He likes fiction and music. He is a stingray attack survivor. He lives in Wollongong.

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