Footy Forensics: Bulldogs v Roosters
Apr 27, 2018, 1:29AM
Tipping this game is easy if you can answer one simple question:
Which Roosters side is going to turn up?
One week, they look every bit the premiership favourite they were touted to be throughout the preseason. Against the Bulldogs (W 30-12) and Knights (W 38-8), they were outstanding. Cooper Cronk went about his business directing traffic and displaying moments of brilliance, while Luke Keary attacked the line to act as the spark to all things great coming out of Bondi.
They should breeze past the Bulldogs with ease this week, but will they?
Despite having the Roosters winning in 57% of the 10,000 simulated matches, and the fact they've already beaten the Bulldogs by 18 points once already this season, the SI Model is tipping a close game this week.
By spitting out such a low scoring and tight game, the model loves two things:
Bulldogs +6.5 and total points Under 40 for the match.
It feels dirty, but this is one I think the model might be barking up the wrong tree in taking the Bulldogs at the Line.
In the fixtures following a loss so far this season, the Roosters have averaged 29 points per game. They get up for these games and will have been itching all week to get back out on there and right their wrongs from Round 6.
When they don't lose their starting prop like they did over the weekend, the Roosters have the cattle to compete with a representative-laden Bulldogs pack.
The Chooks don't need to win the battle in the middle, they just need to make sure they aren't being put on their tails and sent backwards.
If they are competitive, the backline will run rampant.
We saw exactly what the Roosters can do when they're firing last time the two sides met:
Teamwork at its finest 🏃💨#NRLRoostersBulldogs #NRL pic.twitter.com/dbNHiiiM1C
— NRL (@NRL) March 9, 2017
Whether they Chooks kick on or not, the Under is something worth getting behind.
The Bulldogs aren't a side that is going to regularly rack up a score. Sure, they churned out 27 points last week, but putting a score on the Cowboy's doesn't add a lot of weight to a teams form guide at the moment.
Before playing the Bulldogs last week, four teams had beaten the Cowboys while scoring 27.25 points per game. Those same four teams averaged just 10.75 points per game the following week.
Canterbury doesn't score a tonne of points at the best of times, so they might struggle to get on the scoreboard at all this week.
If we're looking for Stats Insider to back up what we're thinking, the Under is the way to go. It allows the Roosters to click and pile on a few points. And so long as the Bulldogs continue down the same lacklustre path on attack they've been travelling down for the best part of a season and a half, the 40.5 points total looks safe.
