Life after Paul Green: The Cowboys don't need to worry

Paul Green and the North Queensland Cowboys have called time on their relationship halfway through their seventh season together.

In making the finals in each of his first four seasons along with a Premiership in 2015 and Grand Final loss in 2017, Green is rightfully proud of what he achieved in his time with the club. He took a good team from Neil Henry in 2014 and turned it into a great one 24 months later. Albeit somewhat lucky to make another Grand Final in 2017, it doesn't happen without a strong coach leading the way.

But he has done his dash following two seasons outside the Top 8 with the third in 2020 looking likely. His outdated selection policy and attacking style, while displaying a couple of changes this season, saw the Cowboys stall and fail to build on the 2017 Grand Final appearance.

The overreliance on Johnathan Thurston showed. Even in his final season (2018), in which the Cowboys scored just 18 points per game, the attacking plan centred around Thurston or nothing. A year later, the Cowboys managed just 15.8 points per game. Along with Thurston, key cogs to prior success in Matt Scott and Gavin Cooper showed heavy downturns in form, yet their role in the side barely changed. Green stuck with his old heads for too long and the team around them suffered. 

A regular turnover of faces in the outside backs didn't help the cause in 2019 either, but the Cowboys ultimately lacked any sort of punch with a block-heavy attack proving predictable and simple for defences to control. Running with such an attack can work when you have one of the best halfbacks in NRL history pulling the strings by playing both sides of the field. Not so much when he's no longer at the peak of his powers, and worse still, not in the side at all.

The Cowboys needed a change. Both parties seem to have acknowledged that with Green telling NRL.com: "The club's well placed given some of the young talent coming through. Hopefully by making this decision now it will allow those guys to get on with it and improve."

It's the young talent that puts the Cowboys at the top of the list for hopeful head coaches.

The New Zealand Warriors look set for a lengthy period out of contention given their poor recruitment and retention of late. Meanwhile, the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs may have cap space to fill, but any good coach in the market knows that money doesn't buy happiness in the NRL.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, have a promising blend of proven and experienced talent along with promising young players on appealing contracts.

Players signed beyond 2020

Add development players in Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Daejarn 'mustard' Asi to the group and any incoming coach has a quality roster to work with.

Moving Forward

Don't let the desperation some have for appointing his successor fool you, Jason Taumalolo is the best forward in rugby league. At 27-years-old and contracted through to the end of 2027, Taumalolo ensures the Cowboys middle is always a threat.

Some would say he's having a quiet season this year. Those people don't know that he's averaging a career-high 225 running metres through nine games. He's putting the team on his back and dragging them up the field. With a little more help around him, Taumalolo could begin to explore more of an offload. To do that, Jordan McLean needs to first, pick up his player options for 2021 and 2022, and second, stay on the field. A Taumalolo, McLean and Josh McGuire middle is an excellent trio to start a match. Peter Hola has displayed some powerful runs in his limited opportunity with the 21-year-old shaping as a handy bench player for the Cowboys going forward.

The edges could do with some improvement. Coen Hess hasn't continued on the trajectory many hoped for when he played State of Origin footy in 2018. Meanwhile, there is little else locked in for the Cowboys over the long-term with Mitchell Dunn off-contract at the end of 2020 and Shane Wright signed through to the end of 2021.

Where the Cowboys do receive a boost in attack is through Reece Robson. He's proving to be a steal after leaving the St George-Illawarra Dragons in search of a better opportunity. He's taken it with both hands to unseat Jake Granville as the first-choice hooker with four tries and two try assists in his nine games.

The Cowboys have the makings of a middle that can climb in the running metres ranks (currently 11th - 1,656 metres per game) with Tom Gilbert another young prospect that can speed up the process.

Out the Back

When healthy, the Cowboys backline presents as a welcome headache.

Scott Drinkwater and Jake Clifford were developing nicely before the former went down with a knee injury. Where does that leave Michael Morgan when he's fit?

If Morgan slots into the halves, Drinkwater can move to fullback. He's then lumped in with Valentine Holmes and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow for the number one jersey. The trio can make for an excellent back three, but none want to play on the wing, and Feldt already occupies one side.

There won't be a shortage of clubs enquiring about Clifford's services if he's pushed out of the halves either.

The talent is there for the Cowboys out the back. The key is putting the right pieces of the puzzle together, and keeping them together over a lengthy period.

The Cowboys back-five has changed an outrageous 24 times in their last 34 matches. We've talked about the importance of cohesion in rugby league before. North Queensland hasn't been able to develop any in their backline over the last 18 months. They've not managed to name the same back-five in back-to-back weeks since Round 4 of this season and it shows in their defensive numbers.

Only the Bulldogs have allowed more tries through their left edge than the Cowboys' 23 this season. As a result, Marsters (14) and Feldt (13) have registered more try causes than any other players in the competition. Their right edge doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either after allowing Matt Ikuvalu to get five tries past them in Round 9.

The turnover in the backline isn't entirely Green's doing. He's been hampered by injuries and hasn't always had a lot of quality to select from. But if they're healthy going into 2021, Green's replacement has no excuses.

What Next?

The decision on who takes over from Green doesn't need to be rushed. Trent Barrett appears to be locked in at the Bulldogs leaving the Warriors as the only other club without a coach beyond this season.

Cowboys is the pick of the two jobs and the Warriors will be lucky to lockdown a quality coach before the position in North Queensland is filled. 

Current Warriors coach Todd Payten will be part of the conversation after his time with the Cowboys at NYC level. While Jason Ryles and Craig Fitzgibbon aren't officially available until 2022, their names will be in the hat too. Shaun Wane is a sneaky consideration; he's long wanted a chance in the NRL and was recently said to be in talks with the Cowboys over an assistant job. Kristian Woolf's relationship with Taumalolo should see him at least get through the door for an interview as a more left-field name being thrown up since Green's departure.

The Cowboys board won't be short of candidates.

Josh Hannay has stepped up to finish the season as interim head coach. With the Stats Insider Futures Model offering the Cowboys just a 6.2% chance of making the Top 8, it's unlikely that Hannay will inspire a late-season run. However, the coach that does take over in 2021 inherits a roster capable of playing finals football. The sort that will carry relatively high expectations if they start Round 1 healthy.

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