A turbulent off-season many are calling the "worst ever" has taken the gloss of what looks set to be an enthralling NRL Season 2019.

While the Sydney Roosters are favourites to become the first back-to-back premiers in NRL history, trying to tip who will challenge them in the Top 8 is a lottery. From the unflappable Melbourne Storm right down to the rebuilding Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, everybody thinks they're a chance at September footy.

Not everybody - despite the league's desire to put 10 teams in the NRL Finals - can make it to the post-season though. Here, we ponder the outlook for each club, revisit an important statistic from the 2018 season, and try to find some value in the Total Wins market. Next to each team name is the Stats Insider model's NRL Premiership probability, which will update weekly following the conclusion of each round, on our NRL Futures page.

GO TO NRL MATCH PREDICTIONS

Brisbane Broncos (Premiership: 8.6%)

2019 Outlook: The Broncos have the hottest young coach in the game, a youthful yet powerful forward pack, and a backline that can tear any defence apart on their day. The big question mark comes around their experience and how they cope under pressure. A lack of a leader in tough times was Brisbane's biggest downfall in 2018. If they can fill that void, they'll compete for the premiership.

2018 Stat That Matters: There's two of them. The Broncos finished 15th in both play-the-ball speed and shifts per game. New coach Anthony Seibold and his Rabbitohs finished 1st in both these stats last year. Will be interesting to see how the first few weeks pan out.

Over/Under: Over 13.5 wins

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (1.5%)

2019 Outlook: Deep into rebuild mode, a lot will need to go right for the Bulldogs to finish any higher than 12th in 2019. The forward pack carries some decent names and can hold it's own, but like last year (13th in points scored per game), they're going to struggle to find enough points to win regularly. The important thing for the Bulldogs isn't to reach the NRL Finals, but to develop their young talent to move closer to qualifying in the next two years.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Bulldogs offered very little in attack last season for only 17.1 points per game. If Kieran Foran can stay healthy, he might be the one to nudge that number closer to 20ppg.

Over/Under: Under 9.5 wins

Canberra Raiders (3.4%)

2019 Outlook: The Raiders could be anything this season. Josh Hodgson is a gun, and now that he's healthy, could he inspire Canberra to return to the NRL Finals? There are too many question marks to be confident they'll feature in September action. How will they cope with the losses of Junior Paulo and Shannon Boyd? Will Jack Wighton be effective in the halves? Who will fill the hole left at fullback? Can they find a way to win close games? The Raiders are a lottery in 2019.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Raiders led the NRL in scoring average with 22.5 points per game in 2018. Remarkably, it wasn't enough to make the Top 8. Even with a fairly uninspiring side, it's obvious the Raiders can put up points. If they can avoid the late-game capitulations this year, they might just be a chance at the Top 8.

Over/Under: Under 11.5 wins

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (6.0%)

2019 Outlook: With James Segeyaro the only casualty in Cronulla's $350k salary cap reduction, the first-choice 17 remains relatively intact. The big change is replacing Valentine Holmes with Shaun Johnson. His combination with Chad Townsend and, in particular, Matt Moylan, has mouth-watering potential. Likewise, Andrew Fifita leads what still looks to be a resilient forward pack. With Wade Graham out until the mid-way point of the season, the Sharks may tread water, early on. However, if they can remain largely healthy, their first-choice 17 is definitely of NRL Finals quality.

2018 Stat That Matters: Johnson finished the 2018 season with 15 try assists. Moylan finished with 16 but in five extra games. These two, alongside the gritty Townsend, will cause all sorts of issues for the opposition in 2019. 

Over/Under: Over 12.5 wins

Gold Coast Titans (1.9%)

2019 Outlook: The Titans have plenty in the middle - maybe too much. The Shannon Boyd signing is still a head-scratcher. It's out wide where the Titans may struggle and could have used the Boyd cap space to prop up a spot in the outside backs. Meanwhile, Garth Brennan did nothing to suggest he's a long-term first-grade coach in his first year in the job. He will need to get a much better grip on things if the Titans are to reach their potential. With some great young players in Jarrod Wallace, Jai Arrow, Ash Taylor and AJ Brimson, the potential is there. It's the consistency and recent reasons to be optimistic that aren't. Could flirt with the Top 8.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Titans loved a penalty in 2018. They gave away the third-most in the NRL (8.7 per game). On the back of those penalties, the Titans conceded 42 tries - joint with the Eelsfor the most in the competition.

Over/Under: Over 9.5 wins

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (1.7%)

2019 Outlook: Disappointing in 2018, the Sea Eagles can threaten the Top 8 in 2019. The makings of a competitive team are there; Daly Cherry-Evans in the halves, Tom Trbojevic at fullback, Jake Trbojevic at lock, and Marty Taupau at prop are all elite in their positions. There might be too many holes to beat the better teams in the competition regularly enough to find the 12 W's generally required to qualify for September footy, though. With two games each against the Dragons, Storm and Rabbitohs, the Sea Eagles do have a tough draw.

2018 Stat That Matters: Manly coach Des Hasler is known for coaching defensively sound football teams. This might be his biggest challenge, though. No team conceded more points than Manly's 622 last season.

Over/Under: Under 10.5 wins

Melbourne Storm (13.2%)

2019 Outlook: Is this the year the Storm finally crumbles? 

No, it's not.

Despite it being a relatively popular prediction, this is built on hope more than anything. The Storm pack is still one of the best in the competition while Cameron Munster is only getting better, both as a half, and a team leader. With a number of options to fill the vacant fullback spot, as well as partner Munster in the halves, the Storm remains as one of the most dangerous teams in the competition. Don't sleep on them, and an elite coach like Craig Bellamy.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Storm conceded 363 points in 2018 - the second fewest in the NRL. Hardly anything to scoff at. However, the Storm have only conceded more than 363 points in two of their last 12 seasons. Despite still being second in this category in the NRL last season, it was one of Melbourne's worst in recent years.

Over/Under: Over 14.5 wins

READ: Is this the end of the Melbourne Storm dynasty?

Newcastle Knights (3.6%)

2019 Outlook: Despite just finishing 11th last season, the Knights were simply one of the worst teams in the competition. Only the Sea Eagles conceded more points than the Knights in 2018, while no team ran for less - or conceded more - running metres per game. They've made some moves to improve those areas. David Klemmer, Tim Glasby and Jesse Ramien are all signings that strengthen previously weak areas. However, there's still a lot of work to do. They'll challenge for the Top 8 but may still have another year before becoming an NRL Finals relevant team.

2018 Stat That Matters: Lacking through the middle last season, the Knights were abused. They finished the season running for the fewest metres (1,353 per game) while conceding the most. Just how much Klemmer can help, remains to be seen.

Over/Under: Under 11.5 wins

North Queensland Cowboys (4.3%)

2018 Outlook: Without the distraction of Johnathan Thurston's retirement, the Cowboys can get back to just playing footy. The talent is there, it's their health that will decide much of the Cowboys' fate. If Michael Morgan or Jason Taumalolo go down with an early long-term injury, we can put a line through them as a Top 8 team. If healthy, the Cowboys have a formidable forward pack that can lay the foundations to give an, albeit average backline, their best chance to score points. They have too many good players for the Cowboys not to be part of the Top 8 conversation.

2018 Stat That Matters: Michael Morgan played just 11 games last season with only eight in the halves. Now fully fit - and without the pressures of getting Thurston his touches - a full season for Morgan beckons, which might be enough to get the Cows back into the NRL Finals.

Over/Under: Under 12.5 wins

Parramatta Eels (1.9%)

2019 Outlook: A horror 2018 doesn't look like it will get much better. A severely flawed rugby league roster, the Eels are relying on youngsters in Reed Mahoney and Dylan Brown to play beyond their years and experience, if they're to compete with finals-bound teams. The young duo have been tasked with starting in key playmaking positions, alongside the much-maligned Mitchell Moses and inconsistent Clint Gutherson.

The forward pack leaves a lot to be desired, while the backline hardly fills fans with hope of a score-fest, which, all leads to Brad Arthur in the hot seat as the favourite to be the first coach removed from duties in 2019.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Eels averaged 15 points per game in 2018. That simply isn't going to cut it. Mitchell Moses was considered a possible State of Origin bolter this time 12 months ago, and is now the go-to player in the halves following Corey Norman's departure. He needs to double his 2018 tally of 10 try assists if the Eels are to surprise anybody and make the Top 8.

Over/Under: Under 10.5 wins

Penrith Panthers (6.6%)

2019 Outlook: They've brought a lot of it on themselves, but the pressure is on the Panthers to perform in NRL 2019. Ivan Cleary is finally in charge of a team in position to win now, and must see that they do so to stay there. While the depth isn't what it was when Clearly left the club last time, there's no shortage of talent for him to work with this time around. In Nathan Cleary, James Maloney, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Viliame Kikau and James Fisher-Harris, the Panthers have a brilliant core. How far they get will depend on the performance of their role players and the development of juniors.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Panthers have somehow been blessed with playing plenty of non-Finals teams each year. No team has had more of their W's come against Bottom 8 sides than the Panthers over the last decade. It was no different in 2018 with 70% of their wins coming against the cellar dwellers. If the Panthers are to really challenge for the 2019 NRL Premiership, they need to beat the better teams in the competition more regularly.

Over/Under: Under 13.5 wins

South Sydney Rabbitohs (9.6%)

Outlook: The superstar-laden Rabbitohs have added the most successful coach in NRL history. Expectations are high in Redfern, and the Rabbitohs look good to reach lofty ambition with the playing squad they have. Falling one victory short of the NRL Grand Final last season, Wayne Bennett knows better than anyone what it takes to reach the ultimate glory. Anthony Seibold had the Bunnies playing the best attacking footy in the NRL last season, look for Bennett to add the finishing touches and have this team competing for the 2019 NRL Premiership.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Rabbitohs led the competition with 1,545 running metres per game last season. While their blistering attack received most of the plaudits, it was the heavies through the middle laying the foundation. They now have a new coach and will no doubt adopt some new philosophies on offense, but it will still need to start with the forwards rumbling through the middle.

Over/Under: Over 13.5 wins

St. George Illawarra Dragons (6.0%)

2019 Outlook: The Dragons' 2019 season will depend on how they cope with the off-field issues to start the season. If they can get ahead of the media and play the footy they're capable of, this is still a Top 8 squad - if not Top 4. The forward pack is still one of the best in the business, while the spine could well be too if Corey Norman turns up. Add some decent talent in the backline and the biggest question mark becomes the coach. Provided Paul McGregor learns from his mistakes - of which there have been plenty - the Dragons shouldn't fall too far in the wake of Jack de Belin's suspension. 

2018 Stat That Matters: De Belin averaged 110 running metres per game in 2018. In the 16 games he clocked over 100, the Dragons won 13 of them. In the nine he failed to reach 11 running metres, they won just three. He's a huge loss if ruled out all season.

Over/Under: Over 12.5 wins

Sydney Roosters (12.6%)

2019 Outlook: The 2018 NRL Premiers added Angus Crichton over the summer, and look good to become the first back-to-back champions of the modern rugby league era. Luke Keary is primed for a career year following his Clive Churchill Medal performance in last year's NRL Grand Final, while James Tedesco will only get more comfortable in his second season in Bondi. With Trent Robinson in the coaches box, there doesn't appear to be any holes in this side. Unless the grind of two long seasons - or simple complacency - takes a toll, the Roosters will be a big player in September.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Roosters were far and way the best defensive team in rugby league by the time the NRL Finals rolled around, conceding just 14.1 points per game across all 27 games. If they do that again, they'll return to the big dance.

Over/Under: Over 15.5 wins

READ: How the Sydney Roosters won the 2018 NRL Grand Final

Warriors (3.0%)

2019 Outlook: Primed to make a run at the top four this season, just making the NRL Finals is now far from certain for the Warriors, following Shaun Johnson's departure. He leaves a massive hole in a key playmaking position - one that looks set to be filled by one of three rookies. There is still plenty of good players at the club; Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is a Dally M Medalist, David Fusitu'a is arguably the best finisher in the game, Tohu Harris is an elite backrower, and Isaiah Papali'i is an underrated young prospect. This isn't a wooden spoon team by any means, but they're going to struggle to score points without Johnson. The Warriors are another team that will flirt with the Top 8.

2018 Stat That Matters: The Warriors finished the season averaging a league-high 12.3 offloads per game last season. The second-phase allowed the Warriors to earn an extra 77.8 metres after an offload per game(2nd in the NRL). They're at their best when throwing the footy around, but only if those offloads aren't translating into errors.

Over/Under: Over 10.5 wins

Wests Tigers (2.7%)

2019 Outlook: It feels like yet another rebuilding year for the Tigers. They started to make inroads last season, but another new face in the coaches box threatens to slow things down once again. Unlike in 2018, however, the spine is fairly stable with the only question mark over who of Josh Reynolds and Benji Marshall wears the number six jersey. With that, the Tigers should improve on what was a terrible attack last season. The roster is encouraging but lacks the genuine superstar to plant them into the Top 8. They still look a year away from relevant NRL Finals football.

2018 Stat That Matters: Easy. It's the measly 15.1 points per game the Tigers scored that warrants the most attention. They were awful in attack, and it cost them wins. No matter how good their defence was overall, an extra slip up or two allowed the opposition to score and the Tigers were rarely able to pull it back.

Over/Under: Over 10.5 wins

NRL was a profitable sport for Stats Insider in 2018. Watch our dynamic predictions and keep up with the latest NRL projections all season right here. If you're looking for Daily Fantasy projections, check out Fantasy Insider's NRL Lineup Cruncher.

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