NRL 2020: Are Penrith Panthers the Dark Horses?

In typical rugby league fashion, all of the talk following an exciting weekend of footy is around Ivan Cleary blowing kisses to a chirpy West Tigers fan. But while arguments over the professionalism of Cleary's very minor indiscretion go around in circles, the Penrith Panthers fly under the radar despite sitting 2nd on the NRL ladder.

The Panthers - kiss-blowing coach and all - are a very good football side and are inching their way into the premiership conversation. 

Round's 1, 2 and 3 had it all: A win over the defending premiers to start; an all too familiar come-from-behind win over the St George-Illawarra Dragons; and a hard-fought draw against the Newcastle Knights. Thrashing the New Zealand Warriors in Round 4 did little for the form guide and was eventually cancelled out by the 16-10 defeat to the Parramatta Eels a week later. But with three wins on the bounce over the Melbourne Storm, South Sydney Rabbitohs and West Tigers, the Panthers have announced themselves.

While year-to-year NRL numbers are a touch misleading given the increase to ball-in-play times, where the Panthers rank in 2020 compared to 2019 still tells part of the story.

Penrith have embraced the possession game and complete their sets at a better rate than any side in the competition. As covered while the season was suspended, "completion rates matter, but not as much as most people are led to believe". However, the importance of completing sets may have grown as teams have begun to harness the non-stop play into long-lasting momentum and game-winning periods in which they dominate possession with few breaks in between.

The Panthers haven't increased their second-phase, nor have they cracked the line considerably more than before. Instead, they've kept hold of the ball and rolled their way up the field to earn the second-most tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line at 36.1 per game.

While the average running metres per game in the NRL has increased by 8.3% from 2019 to 2020, Penrith has increased their output by 20.5%. But it's the 42.2% jump in post-contact metres compared to the minor 2.7% jump across the competition that really stands out.

The focus on post-contact metres again aligns with Penrith's possession-heavy approach with the ball-in-hand.

Peeling back the onion a little further, five players stand out as the reason for Penrith's success and the optimism towards this group challenging the Roosters, Storm and Eels at the pointy end of the season.

Isaah Yeo: The move to the middle of the field has worked wonders for Yeo and the Panthers. Capitalising on his high work-rate, the Panthers are getting 147.3 running metres and 45 tackles per gameout of the 25-year-old. It's his footwork and ball-playing at the line that has balanced the Panthers attack and made it easier to get the ball to their weapons on the edge, though. Reliable, tireless and capable of playing both the workhorse and ball-playing lock forward role, Yeo has been a revelation since moving in-field.

James Fisher-Harris: After playing most of his games at lock over the last two seasons and starting there for the last time in Round 2 this year, James Fisher-Harris has found a home as one of the best props in the NRL. It won't be long before he begins to receive the credit he deserves while averaging 197.4 running metres per game. Playing 60+ minutes in the middle isn't uncommon for him either.

It's Fisher-Harris' 36 games at lock that have really set him up to thrive at prop. As block plays become less of the norm and playing at the line grows in importance, the Kiwi international is a key man in this Panthers line up. He can truck the ball up with the best of them, or offer a tip-on for his outside man.

Those Fisher-Harris passes are even more dangerous on the left side of the field.

Viliame Kikau: The hulking Fijian has looked unstoppable at times this season. However, Viliame Kikau might be at his most dangerous when not touching the ball at the moment. His average running metres per game have dropped from 123.4 metresin 2019 to just 87.9 metres in 2020. He only touched the ball six times in Penrith's 19-12 win over Wests in Round 8.

The 2019 Panthers attack was obsessed with getting Kikau the ball. It was one-dimensional and easy to defend, as a result. But as they look to use him more as a lead-runner and pick their moments to feed the beast more effectively, teams struggled to defend the Penrith left edge attack. A whopping 67% of Penrith's 27 tries in 2020 have come down that side of the field.

Jarome Luai: The improved decision-making of Jarome Luai has also played a factor in the success of the Penrith left edge. We've been hearing how good Luai is for years, but have never seen him put it together quite this well. The 23-year-old has handed out four try assists and forced four line dropouts over the last month. He's more comfortable with the ball in his hands and plays with a lot more time than he did even earlier this season. He's shedding the utility tag as his skillset as a five-eighth becomes more evident.

Not close to realising his potential as a ball-runner averaging just 59.3 running metres per game this season, Luai still has room to grow. 

Nathan Cleary: We'd caught glimpses of Nathan Cleary as the lead half when James Maloney missed time in previous seasons. Now that there is no question over who leads this team, Cleary has grabbed it with both hands and is playing career-best football. It doesn't show quite so much in his numbers, rather his leadership and control of the side. 

He stepped up to score the match-sealing try in Round 7...

...and knocked the go-ahead field goal through the sticks - cool as you like - in Round 8.

Cleary's development as a lead half in the NRL is on pace with the improving team that surrounds him. While it may not be this season given what is in front of them, the Panthers aren't far away from a premiership push.

Crystal Ball

The Stats Insider Futures model pegged the Panthers as a 4.8% chance at premiership glory and just a 29.4% chance at cracking the top four. Now 2nd on the ladder and with the second-easiest remaining schedule of all 16 teams, the numbers read a lot different.

The Roosters and Storm remain the heavy favourites for the premiership with the Eels not far behind, but it's the 60.6% to make the top four that offers the Panthers hope. No team in the NRL era has ever lifted the Provan-Summons trophy from outside the top four on the ladder.

It's easy to get excited about Penrith's chances this year; they're coming along nicely. But few teams in NRL history are quite like the Roosters, and the Storm are always relevant. The Eels feel like they're one year ahead of the Panthers, too. 

While a chance at winning the last game of the NRL season, if they can keep up this level of form through to October, 2020 is more likely to be a step towards later glory.

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