We've crossed the halfway mark of the season with teams now circling games on the calendar and calculating how many wins will get them into the Top 8 by the end of Round 20.

This is a different season to any other. It's four games shorter and there isn't the State of Origin period to navigate. 

However, the fact that no more than two teams have jumped from the Bottom 8 in Round 11 into the Top-8 in Round 20 over the last ten seasons isn't a good sign for those currently on the outside and looking in at a finals footy spot. In five of those seasons, just one team has made the leap.

So, who does the Stats Insider NRL Model expect to see playing in October this season?

We can lock these five teams into playing beyond Round 20 already. The Melbourne Storm and Sydney Roosters won't fall out, the Parramatta Eels have displayed enough consistency this season to expect to be there, the Penrith Panthers have a favourable schedule to be Minor Premiership smokey's while the Canberra Raiders have the easiest remaining schedule of all 16 teams.

That leaves three 'open' spots in the Top 8 for 2020. According to the Stats Insider Futures Model, five teams are in the hunt.

The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks and South Sydney Rabbitohs were all there last season and kicked off 2020 expecting a repeat. The Newcastle Knights have been building for this moment for three years while no team has suffered a longer finals drought than the Wests Tigers. All five clubs have highlighted a finals spot as a bare minimum, but two will fall short.

Let's take a look at why each club will and won't play finals footy this season.

Manly Sea Eagles

8th - 6 wins, 5 losses, -14 PD

Why they will: Their schedule. While Tom Trbojevic isn't due back until at least Round 15, the Sea Eagles can get by without him and be positioned to make a run at the Top 8 over the final month if they're not still in there when he returns. The Sea Eagles play the Tigers (9th), Bulldogs (16th), Titans (14th) and Warriors (13th) across their last month. They look like a different team with their fullback to have won four of the six games he's played this season.

Why they won't: Tom Trbojevic has already been delayed once since going down with a hamstring injury. Manly has been cautious with their superstar fullback in the past so are unlikely to rush him back and risk reinjury for a shot at the Top 8. Their current -14 points differential could become an issue too.

Cronulla Sharks

7th - 6 wins, 5 losses, +36PD

Why they will: Despite running 13th with only one win in four games at the time, we weren't worried about the Sharks here. They've made the changes needed and have won five of their last six games while rising to 2nd in the NRL in scoring at 25.8 points per game. The stellar play of Shaun Johnson has led the way. His 16 try assists is the most in the competition. With Matt Moylan still to return from his latest injury and Wade Graham yet to play his best footy this season, there is still room for the Sharks to improve.

Why they won't: If Johnson is the next to go down with a long-term injury, the Sharks are done. As well as the Sharks are playing overall, Johnson is where it all begins and ends in attack at times. They wouldn't be able to keep up this level of scoring without the Kiwi international. It's what is winning them games as their defence ranks 12th in the NRL and is the worst of the Top 8 contenders.

Newcastle Knights

6th - 6 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, +41PD

Why they will: This Knights side is different from the others that have disappointed over the last two seasons. Their pack is marching up the field and presenting Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga with regular opportunities in good ball areas. After averaging 1,506 metres per game in 2019 (15th), only Parramatta runs for more than Penrith's 1,876 metres per game in 2020. Their defence that conceded 21.75 points per game last season has kept opposing teams to just 16.1 points per game this time around. The Knights are producing numbers worthy of a finals appearance.

Why they won't: Can they keep producing those numbers, though? Daniel Saifiti could still be out for another month, Edrick Lee and Tim Glasby are out indefinitely while Andrew McCullough and Connor Watson have recently joined Jayden Brailey on the sideline for the rest of the season. All of them are key contributors to Newcastle's best team and there may be more injuries still to come.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

10th - 5 wins, 6 losses, +26PD

Why they will: Who is brave enough to bet against Wayne Bennett? He's only missed the finals twice in the NRL era. Injuries have stopped the Rabbitohs from fielding their best team this season, but as their left side attack clicks into gear and Latrell Mitchell develops further as a fullback, they look more and more like a finals-bound side. The forward pack many expected to be too small is exceeding expectations and Damian Cook is threatening to catch fire behind it. The talent is there for the Rabbitohs. Bennett is the man to have it show on the field despite injury issues.

Why they won't: The Rabbitohs have lost key players this season, but none in key play-making areas. They've been able to fill the gaps relatively well so far. However, if one of their spine players is to be ruled out for a lengthy period, South Sydney's struggles in attack will be further exposed. If the left side, in particular, can't spend some time together, Souths will struggle to get past the four remaining Top 8 sides on their schedule.

Wests Tigers

9th - 5 wins, 6 losses, +58PD

Why they will: All of the work Michael Maguire put into the side in 2019 is starting to show. Alex Twal, Josh Aloiai, Luke Gardner and Luciano Leilua make up an excellent pack. Aloiai, in particular, can expect to receive a lot more recognition in the next 18 months if he keeps this up. And of course, Harry Grant is the best young player in the game and has changed Wests fortunes for 2020. With plenty of depth and a coach that isn't afraid to promote competition by dropping big names, the Tigers are building nicely. 

Why they won't: West have the second-toughest remaining draw in the competition. While their attack ranks 5th in the NRL scoring 23.7 points per game, it isn't an accurate reflection of where their attack measures up against the rest of the competition. Wests have averaged 31.1 points per game against teams currently in the Bottom 8 compared to just 14.8 points per game against Top 8 teams. With the Knights (6th), Roosters (4th), Panthers (1st), Sea Eagles (8th), Storm (2nd), Eels (3rd) and even the Rabbitohs (10th) - who managed to keep them to ten points in Round 9 - still to come, the Tigers need to find new ways to break down the better teams in the competition if they're to end the drought.

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