NRL 2022 Premiership Odds and Probabilities

As we tick past the halfway point of the 2022 NRL season, it's time to check in with Stats Insider's futures model and each team's outlook for the remainder of the season.

At this point, we know who are the good teams and certainly know those that won't feature in September. However, there is a logjam in the middle of the NRL ladder with eight teams jockeying for six spots inside the top eight.

Here, we look at each NRL teams 2022 Premiership odds and go into what the rest of the season looks like.

NRL 2022 Premiership Odds

• $2.40: Penrith Panthers
• $3.50: Melbourne Storm
• $11: North Queensland Cowboys
• $13: Cronulla Sharks, Sydney Roosters
• $14: Parramatta Eels
• $18: Brisbane Broncos
• $26: South Sydney Rabbitohs
• $51: Manly Sea Eagles
• $81: Canberra Raiders
• $251: St George-Illawarra Dragons 
• $501: Canterbury Bulldogs, Gold Coast Titans, New Zealand Warriors, Newcastle Knights, Wests Tigers

Odds via TopSport and correct as of Thursday, June 16.

Brisbane Broncos

Premiership: 2.6%
Top four: 27.0%
Top eight: 84.5%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

Just as we all thought they would be...

The Brisbane Broncos are on a seven-game winning streak to be 4th on the NRL ladder after 14 rounds.

Adam Reynolds has been a godsend for the Broncos but it can't all be attributed to him. Reynolds has missed games due to injury and the winning streak has kept building. A lot of it comes down to the forward pack. Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan, Thomas Flegler and Corey Jensen have all been fantastic in getting the Broncos up the field.

From there, any combination of Reynolds, Tyson Gamble and Ezra Mam is able to manufacture points through Herbie Farnworth, Kotoni Staggs, Corey Oates and Selwyn Cobbo out wide.

The Broncos are a well-rounded team and one that is all but locked into finals football with a spot in the top four more likely than anybody expected heading into Round 1 of the NRL Season.

Canberra Raiders

Premiership: 0.4%
Top four: 0.6%
Top eight: 25.1%
Wooden Spoon: 0.2%

The Canberra Raiders are playing exactly like you'd expect for a team currently just two competition points outside the top eight. With enough promising periods to be hopeful but not quite enough to dominate regularly, the Raiders look destined to flirt with finals football all year.

Offloads have been a big part of the game plan for the Raiders to lead the NRL with 13.1 per game. As of late, they're connecting more often and the Green Machine has risen from 16th in yardage to 10th, averaging 1,517 running metres per game.

Consistency remains an issue for the Raiders overall though, and they're currently working through a few teething issues as Jamal Fogarty works his way into the side. Still, this is a finals-calibre squad and the easiest remaining schedule in the NRL will help them get there.

RELATED: NRL Strength of Schedule

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.3%
Wooden Spoon: 22.8%

The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs are a different team to the one playing only a month ago. With Mick Potter now at the helm and having inspired a significant improvement with the ball, we've all of a sudden got a race on our hands to avoid the wooden spoon.

A spot in the drawer at Canterbury had already been carved out for the unwanted culinary tool a month ago. Poor in defence and disastrous in attack, there looked to be no question about the Bulldogs finishing last. However, they've starting to move the ball in attack , which is no longer focused on setting up for plays that rarely trouble the defence.

Matt Dufty has been dropped, Josh Jackson has been moved and Tevita Pangai Jr. has clearly been fired up. And the Bulldogs look better for it.

The Bulldogs are still at 22.8% to finish at the bottom of the NRL ladder, but the improvement is finally there for everybody to see.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Premiership: 7.6%
Top four: 39.9%
Top eight: 91.2%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks have slowed down following their hot start to the 2022 NRL season. 

Will Kennedy's suspension forced a reshuffle in the Cronulla spine which stalled the high-powered attack. Wade Graham's reintroduction to the side at the expense of Teig Wilton on the edge has also played a part in the dip. Still, the Sharks are one of the most dangerous teams in the NRL with the ball and that is more than enough to beat the bad teams at the moment.

There is a battle on for the top four with any one of the sides sitting third to eigth capable of sneaking in. With the second-easiest remaining draw in the NRL and a key figure in Dale Finucane still to return, the Sharks are in with a sniff.

Gold Coast Titans

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.2%
Wooden Spoon: 19.7%

Finals appearances can be deceiving. 

While the Gold Coast Titans celebrated their eighth-placed finish in 2021 and expected to improve in 2022, not enough was made of the fact Justin Holbrook's side became the first since 2002 to reach the finals with only ten wins.

Still, even the loudest sceptics of the Titans' 2022 fortunes didn't see them sitting at 16th on the ladder after 14 rounds.

Playing with the third-worst defence in the competition and an attack averaging only 16 points per game, the Titans have gone backwards this season. The experiment of their new-look spine, while impacted by injury, hasn't panned out as hoped and has already triggered the signing of Kieran Foran for 2023.

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui- outside of a misguided short kickoff call - has been fantastic but there is only so much he can do. That much became clear when Fa'asuamaleaui ran for 203 metres on 18 carries in the first half against the Broncos as the Titans built a 24-4 lead they would go on to blow.

Holbrook doesn't sound willing to make too many changes and instead puts everything onto the playing group. As Nathan Brown found at the Warriors, that's a dangerous approach if you want to keep your job.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Premiership: 1.7%
Top four: 5.5%
Top eight: 47.3%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles have become somewhat underrated this season.

Tom Trbojevic meant so much to the performance of this side in 2021 that being without him for the rest of 2022 saw most people put a line through the Sea Eagles as a finals contender. However, at 47.3% and behind back-to-back wins, Manly is still capable of playing September football.

RELATED: The Sea Eagles' Outlook Without Tom Trbojevic

They've seen improvements from Reuben Garrick as a fullback and Haumole Olakau'atu's rise to become one of the best backrowers in the NRL. Christian Tuipulotu has been uncovered as a capable first-grade winger while Josh Aloiai is averaging 133 running metres per game scoring tries for fun at the moment. 

The Sea Eagles have developed beyond a total reliance on Trbojevic and are getting better as the 2022 NRL season goes on.

Melbourne Storm

Premiership: 27.1%
Top four: 93.7%
Top eight: 99.8%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

Ryan Papenhuyzen hasn't played since the Storm's Round 9 win but still leads the NRL in points scored (127) after 14 rounds.

That about sums up the dominance of the Melbourne Storm to start the season and the sort we can expect later when key players have navigated the State of Origin period. 

Melbourne has the talent to get through this part of the year relatively unscathed from a results point of view but certainly haven't been at their best in recent weeks. The big measuring stick game doesn't come until Round 22 against the Panthers. For now, the Storm look a step behind the defending premiers but nobody can rule them out of catching up before the end of the season.

The outside backs have been a concern recently and Xavier Coates has been ruled out for two months after suffering an ankle injury in State of Origin Game 1. Coates and Reimis Smith - who is grossly underrated defensively - will be fit and firing for the NRL finals, though.

RELATED: Melbourne Storm 2022 Premiership Odds

Newcastle Knights

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 1.6%
Wooden Spoon: 9.1%

Given their "full support of the board" history in recent years, there is nothing the Newcastle Knights can say that will remove the speculation around Adam O'Brien as head coach. O'Brien's side isn't performing and as much as he speaks about prior failings at the club and the need for patience, the Knights are going backwards at a rapid rate in 2022. 

Similar to the Titans in the way their seventh-placed finish provided more confidence in the fan base than it should have, the Knights were still at 31.2% to remain in the Top eight at the start of 2022 and certainly weren't considered a wooden spoon contender.

With only four wins in 13 games including a horror 22-167 combined score across their last four games at McDonald Jones Stadium, the Knights are now just a 1.6% chance of making the finals for a third consecutive season.

RELATED: NRL 2022 Finals Predictions

North Queensland Cowboys

Premiership: 5.3%
Top four: 59.5%
Top eight: 96.6%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

Not even the most optimistic North Queensland Cowboys fan quite saw this coming, with the side jumping out as surprise packet of the NRL this season.

Todd Payten's side are playing with the third-best attack in the NRL, scoring 25 points per game and doing it behind a pack that ranks second in yardage with 1,701 running metres per game. However, what makes the Cowboys great is their defence.

Only Penrith - a historically elite defensive team over the last three years - concedes fewer than North Queensland's 12.2 points per game. 

They're not quite up there with the Panthers and Storm just yet, with some doubts around the Cowboys due to what has been a relatively comfortable draw across the first half of the season. Still, they're going to be a threat to the premiership if they keep this up through to the end of Round 25.

MORE: NRL Try Location Analysis

Parramatta Eels

Premiership: 7.8%
Top four: 36.3%
Top eight: 87.8%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

Well, the Parramatta Eels continue to be one of the most weird and wacky teams in the NRL.

Parramatta can beat the Storm and Panthers while looking like genuine premiership contenders. However, they also have the ability to lose to the Bulldogs, raising concern of little sign of growth over the last three years.

Parramatta have been in this position for too long. They can beat anybody on their day, but you don't get three days like that in September. Premiership-winning teams are consistent, they put the bad teams away, and their 'days' are when things don't quite stick but find a way to compete anyway. 

At their best, the Parramatta middle is one of the best in the NRL and the spine dominates on the back of it. Their worst, as we saw in Round 14, is wooden spoon quality.

Parramatta is third on the list to win the premiership at 7.8%, but that might be assuming a good day (or three). We know better than to assume anything with the Eels. 

Penrith Panthers

Premiership: 32.9%
Top four: 99.8%
Top eight: 100%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The NRL is effectively in tiers at the moment.

Tier 1: Panthers.

Tier 2: Storm.

Tier 3 and Beyond: You decide, it doesn't matter.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Premiership: 7.0%
Top four: 21.1%
Top eight: 77.4%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The South Sydney Rabbitohs were on the receiving end of a horror draw to start the 2022 season. Reaching an NRL Grand Final will do that to a team. Latrell Mitchell's injury then made things more difficult and Souths struggled through the opening rounds.

They're still struggling, really. Only now you can start to see where things are coming good. Cody Walker went without a try assist across the opening five rounds but has nine in the eight games since. The Rabbitohs left edge is starting to click with Campbell Graham now installed in the centres and will only grow stronger with Mitchell's return.

To have played so poorly and have their best player returning just as things are starting to come good gives life to the idea that South Sydney's current 7.0% to win the premiership will rise before finals football kicks off. 

St. George Illawarra Dragons

Premiership: 0.2%
Top four: 0.5%
Top eight: 11.9%
Wooden Spoon: 0.6%

Most good judges saw this coming. 

The St. George-Illawarra Dragons looked through the scrap heap of other clubs, signed unwanted players on cheap deals, and ultimately put together a decidedly average football side.

They're on a treadmill of mediocrity this season: Not good enough to be a real threat of making the top eight, but not bad enough to drop far enough down the ladder to trigger a change. Instead, the Dragons turn up every so often, beat a few bad teams and go close with one or two of the good ones. 

Anthony Griffin has moved players in, out and around the squad searching for the winning formula. He's struggled to find it for the most part and is unlikely to land on a good enough side to make the finals from here, with Stats Insider's model giving the Dragons an 11.8% chance of making the top eight.

Sydney Roosters

Premiership: 7.4%
Top four: 16.0%
Top eight: 76.1%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

The Sydney Roosters entered the season among the premiership favourites.

The Roosters' injuries of 2021 were behind them and 2022 looked like a season it would all come together in premiership glory. Premiership contention, at least.

However, the combination between Luke Keary and Sam Walker hasn't clicked nearly enough. The inconsistency of the service from dummy half and the turnover of faces behind the ruck haven't helped there either. The Sydney pack isn't quite as dominant as many expected and the outside backs chop and change too often to develop cohesion.

Trent Robinson's record speaks for itself and there is still stacks of potential in this roster. James Tedesco has struck world-class form in recent weeks and Keary is capable of doing the same if everything lines up. The Roosters are way down at 7.4% to lift the Provan-Summons Trophy but their ceiling is much higher.

MORE: Sydney Roosters Remaining Fixtures

New Zealand Warriors

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.1%
Wooden Spoon: 20.3%

The New Zealand Warriors moved Nathan Brown along so things are already looking up.

Improvements are unlikely to show in the W column but the Round 14 loss to the Sharks suggests they're coming on the field even if only minor. Stacey Jones' teamlist for the Warriors Round 15 clash with the Panthers indicates he won't settle for anything less than maximum effort. 

The Warriors' 2022 NRL season started off with top eight hopes but those have been well and truly extinguished. Their challenge now is to avoid a club-first NRL wooden spoon.

With four wins already and four games back home in New Zealand, the Warriors will surely pick up the two wins required to more than likely avoid the spoon. However, the hardest remaining schedule in the NRL is a slight concern for the Warriors faithful.

Wests Tigers

Premiership: 0.0%
Top four: 0.0%
Top eight: 0.2%
Wooden Spoon: 27.3%

Similar to the New Zealand Warriors, the Wests Tigers have sacked their coach and can assume minor improvements are just around the corner. 

The 'new coach bounce' is a myth, but as we've seen with Mick Potter and the Bulldogs, a 'new coach implementing new strategies across three or four weeks bounce' has some merit. 

Brett Kimmorley has his work cut out for him. While Jackson Hastings looks comfortable leading the team around the field and orchestrating an attack that is threatening to show signs of life when Adam Doueihi returns, the Tigers defence is poor. Conceding 25.2 points per game, there is too much work for Hastings and Doueihi to do to make up the difference. 

It's without the ball where Kimmorley needs to trigger an improvement if the Tigers are to avoid the wooden spoon that Wests is currently projected as a 27.3% chance of claiming.

(Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)