NRL: Running Metres - What to expect in the 2020 season

Let's skip all of the "if the competition restarts" prefaces and, for a moment, live in the hope that the May 28 date is, in fact, definite. 

While working through the Stats That Matter series over the last month, one thing is clear: premiers generate running metres. 

Stats That Matter: Running Metres - "Five of the last six premiership-winning teams have finished inside the top three in running metres per game."

So, at risk of getting too excited and all of this being for nothing if May 28 is footy-free, let's take a look at how each team is positioned through the middle ahead of the rest of the season.

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Brisbane Broncos

2019 Rank: 10th (1,570m)
2020 Outlook: Freakish

Buy all of the Broncos forward pack stocks you can. If you see some property still left on 'Broncos Middle Island', take out a mortgage. This pack is going to entertain no matter how the season plays out.

Payne Haas is a freak of nature. The 194cm and 119kg 20-year old averaged 185 running metres per game in his debut 2019 season, and has cracked that number in both games in 2020 to average 201 metres per game.

Tevita Pangai Jr is a thrill-a-minute; the minutes he plays, anyway. David Fifita can run through walls and leaves defenders lined in chalk on every carry. Pat Carrigan is the future at the lock position for the Broncos. Matt Lodge is a monster. Meanwhile, Thomas Flegler would be talked about as an exciting young prospect like his teammates if he wore any other jersey.

The Broncos pack is only just getting started while Jamayne Isaako and Corey Oates will provide strong starts to sets from the back. Considered underachievers in 2019, that's unlikely to be the case for the Broncos middle in 2020.

Canberra Raiders

2019 Rank: 7th (1,585m)
2020 Outlook: Premiership-worthy

The Raiders identified a lack of fitness and mobility as the reasons for their problems heading into 2019. They focused on defence and playing under fatigue throughout the preseason, and it resulted in a Grand Final performance. The question now: can they do it again?

Josh Papalii is in the conversation for best prop in the game, Sia Soliola isn't human, Dunamis Lui has shown more consistency, and young Emre Guler is a big body with ball skills perfect for Canberra's more mobile style of play. Guler showed what he can do in Round 1 as he used a simple overs line to square up Bryce Cartwright before sending Elliot Whitehead over.

Recent history says you need to be in the top three in running metres to compete for the premiership. Expect the Raiders to be in contention.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

2019 Rank: 8th (1,579m)
2020 Outlook: Much of the same

The Bulldogs are never short of effort. They lack the superstar names through the middle and will do again in 2020 while waiting for Luke Thompson to arrive in 2021. Aidan Tolman is an honest toiler, but he's not bending the line for the playmakers to create behind him. While a hard hitter in defence, Dylan Napa isn't earning the likes of Jeremey Marshall-King, Brandon Wakeham and Lachlan Lewis a quick play-the-ball either.

With a backlog of battlers in the back row, the Bulldogs fight their way up the field but ultimately fail to test the defence regularly enough to score. That theme is almost certain to continue in 2020.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

2019 Rank: 9th (1,571m)
2020 Outlook: Looking to the future

Paul Gallen is gone, Andrew Fifita's knees are going, and Aaron Woods hasn't been there as an elite prop for a long time - if he ever has. This Sharks forward pack is on its way out but is a good chance at ushering in the next generation at the same time.

All aboard the Braden Hamlin-Uele hype-train. Outstanding off the bench for his 103 running metres per game, the 25-year-old should receive his first start in 2020. The prospect of the hard-running Hamlin-Uele playing alongside the prop that can do it all in Billy Magoulias gives the Sharks hope for the future. Add Jack Williams and Toby Rudolf to the rotation of youngsters, and the Sharks can surprise in 2020.

Gold Coast Titans

2019 Rank: 15th (1,499m)
2020 Outlook: The handbrake

The Titans have the cattle to at least be competitive in the middle of the field. Jai Arrow isn't the sort to checkout early despite being signed elsewhere next season, Jarrod Wallace has played rep football, and Moeaki Fotuaika is the best young prop in the game, not named Payne Haas. That's about all they have, though.

Depth is an issue. So too is yardage coming from elsewhere with Bryce Cartwright, Tyrone Peachey and the Titans back three not known for their yardage production.

While Justin Holbrook should get the team heading down a better path while a handful of young attacking players get comfortable, the Titans middle threatens to act as a handbrake to any considerable improvement on the NRL ladder.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

2019 Rank: 4th (1,610m)
2020 Outlook: Trbojevic

Des Hasler needed just one summer to turn the Sea Eagles around. After finishing the 2018 season 15th on the ladder, a different group made up of mostly the same faces turned up in 2019. Gritty in defence and gutsy through the middle, Manly climbed to 6th on the ladder, in large part due to the extra 100 metres they added per game.

Marty Taupau and Addin Fonua-Blake combined for 311 metres as one of the most feared prop combinations in the NRL. Running for 1,610 metres per game as a team in 2019 (4th), expect much of the same in 2020 with a healthy Tom Trbojevic there to add a few more on the back of the pack.

Melbourne Storm

2019 Rank: 3rd (1,646m)
2020 Outlook: Storm-like

We've come to assume the Melbourne Storm will be at the top of most aspects in rugby league, but running metres isn't one of them. Their 1,645 metres in 2019 (3rd) is a bit of an outlier following seasons ranked 13th, 10th, 5th, 3rd and 8th. Thriving more on cohesion, high completions and clear structures, the Storm don't rely on the yardage game quite like other teams.

That's not to say they won't dominate the centre-third, though. With Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Jesse Bromwich, Dale Finucane and whichever unknown player they pluck from reserve grade to produce from day one, the Storm aren't about to take a backwards step.

New Zealand Warriors

2019 Rank: 11th (1,565m)
2020 Outlook: Grim

You've got arguably the best back three in rugby league churning out a combined 517 metres per game in 2019, so what do you do in 2020?

Keep going to the well.

Not if you're the Warriors, though. In a season the forward pack looks its least threatening in years, Stephen Kearney has moved metre-eater and try-scorer, David Fusitu'a, in a spot to the centres. The Warriors' greatest strength has been broken up in a season where absolutely nothing is going right.

Awful through two rounds so far, there isn't a lot to suggest much of an improvement when the competition resumes. Particularly when considering the severe restrictions they've had to deal with in New Zealand compared to their Australian-based counterparts.

Tohu Harris is healthy and looking good. Rookie backrower Eliesa Katoa has been the club's best performer through two rounds. However, Leeson Ah Mau, Isaiah Papali'i, Adam Blair and Lachlan Burr will need to make monumental improvements to their game if the Warriors are to be relevant through the middle of the field in 2020.

Newcastle Knights

2019 Rank: 16th (1,497m)
2020 Outlook: Can't be worse

The Roosters, Eels, Storm and Sea Eagles are expected to feature in the race for the premiership and to get there through an elite yardage game. The Knights are improving, and while tipped by the 'experts' to make the Top 8 in back-to-back years, their running game has continued to hold them out of a finals spot.

They've now finished 16th in running metres per game in four consecutive seasons. If the Knights are finally going to play to the expectations, it needs to start in the middle. David Klemmer - as much as he tries - can't do it all. Newcastle's timeline lends itself to this being the end of their stay at the bottom of the running metres list. They are trending upwards and it will show through the middle this season. Just how high they climb or how close they get to finals football will come down to how much help Klemmer is given.

North Queensland Cowboys

2019 Rank: 14th (1,528m)
2020 Outlook: Whatever Taumalolo decides

Despite the tremulous runs of Jason Taumalolo producing 196 metres per game in 2019, the Cowboys struggled to get up the field. Much of it came down to their back three. Picking the Cowboys fullback and wing combinations was like picking lotto numbers last season.

Now that Valentine Holmes and Kyle Feldt - who are both productive in the running metres department - have locked down two of the spots, only one remains on a rotation basis. With some consistency to start sets and a healthier-looking middle, the Cowboys won't be so far down the running metres list by the end of Round 20.

Parramatta Eels

2019 Rank: 2nd (1646m)
2020 Outlook: Further improvement

The Parramatta Eels lept from 16th on the NRL ladder in 2018 to 5th in 2019. They did so by averaging 1,646 metres per game (2nd) in 2019, up from 1,484 metres (10th). Blake Ferguson's addition to the back three along with the emergence of Maika Sivo saw the Eels wing pairing combine for 302 running metres per game. With Ryan Matterson now at the club and Nathan Brown fit after only managing 13 games last season, the Eels are in a promising position.

Penrith Panthers

2019 Rank: 12th (1,560m)
2020 Outlook: Promising

The addition of Zane Tetevano and Api Koroisau could be the difference for the Panthers in 2020. Soft through the middle in 2019, Penrith all of a sudden have a bit of starch to the centre-third while Koroisau has already proven to be a 'Buy of the Year' candidate for what he can do out of dummy half. A more robust middle will help transform what was a terribly predictable attack, too.

Always with enough youngsters to replace Jack Hetherington during his suspensions every other week, the Panthers aren't short of prospects to trial until hitting on a winner. Far from being the most feared team in the competition through the middle, the Panthers look good to at least improve in that area this season.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

2019 Rank: 6th (1,586m)
2020 Outlook: Small

The Rabbitohs led the competition in running metres in 2018. Injuries to key players stopped them from doing the same in 2019 as they struggled to get the same go-forward for Damien Cook to dominate from behind the ruck.

We've already seen the best and worst of the Rabbitohs middle in 2020. Tevita Tatola, Thomas Burgess and Liam Knight combined for 472 running metres in an impressive Round 1 performance against the Sharks. However, the trio managed just 237 running metres a week later against the young Broncos pack.

Size looks to be an issue for the Rabbitohs. If that's not it, consistency might be. They fell six spots from 2018 to 2019 and look set to fall further in 2020.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

2019 Rank: 13th (1,547m)
2020 Outlook: Bleak

The Dragons sat around and waited for Jack de Belin to turn up last year, and he never did. With everything happening in his case, and the delays that could come about due to the coronavirus pandemic, he's likely to miss all of 2020 as well.

That's not where the bad news ends for the Dragons. Tyson Frizell has made up his mind; he's off to Newcastle in 2021 and there's no guarantee he doesn't pack his bags before then. Trent Merrin is back in town, but you're in trouble if a 30-year old prop who was unwanted in the NRL only 12 months ago is expected to put the team on his back.

It's not a word Paul McGregor will want to throw around, but 2020 can be put into a box for the Dragons: rebuild. Give the youngsters a run and hope to find gold, Mary.

Sydney Roosters

2019 Rank: 1st (1,663m)
2020 Outlook: Elite

The Roosters topped the running metres list in 2019 with 1,663 metres per game and are in a good position to do the same in 2020. They might be without Cooper Cronk and Latrell Mitchell, but their high-powered attack remains and will continue to thrive behind an elite forward pack.

Jared Waerea-Hargraves might be the most underappreciated forward in the competition and plays alongside a consistent metre-eater in Siosiua Taukeiaho. Flanked by Boyd Cordner, Angus Crichton, Mitchell Aubusson and Victor Radley, the Roosters will once again be amongst the best packs in the NRL. With James Tedesco and Daniel Tupou both in the Top 10 in average running metres per game in 2019, the Roosters run from everywhere.

Wests Tigers

2019 Rank: 5th (1,594m)
2020 Outlook: Hopeful

Hope is a dangerous word around Leichhardt; Tigers fans have been living off it for the best part of a decade. However, a young and improving middle gives life to the idea that a foundation for success is finally being laid.

It may come as a surprise to hear the Tigers finished the 2019 season 5th in running metres at 1,594 per game. Hardly considered monsters through the middle, the Tigers don't have the representative level middle people look for in a strong pack. However, young players exceeded expectations to run up a decent tally. 

Deadwood was replaced with young and eager talent that is sure to improve in 2020: Alex Twal (107 metres per game in 2019) added an extra 13 metres per game in 2019 to the season before; Thomas Mikele emerged as a solid prospect for his 84 metres per game; Josh Aloiai is developing into an excellent prop with a rise similar to Fonua-Blake's; Oliver Clark showed promising signs to end the season. 

A strong Wests middle won't be so much of a surprise this time around.

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