Despite having six rounds still to play, the eight finals teams are close to locked in already. Four points separate 8th and 9th with the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles given the best chance (27.9%) to sneak into the Top 8 by the end of Round 20. So, while teams will still jostle for position and fight for home finals, we can start to look at who is best positioned to lift the Provan-Summons Trophy. 

The suspended portion of the NRL season gave us time to look at how the game has evolved over the years and the stats that matter to winning the premiership. Two stood out among the rest:

• Running Metres Per Game
• Points Conceded Per Game

Now, the game has changed since Round 2 of the 2020 season. Ball-in-play time is up by over two minutes, and with that, the numbers are trending the same way. Still, rugby league remains a simple game and what has worked in the past will likely continue to work in the future.

The Yardage Game

"When we're talking about great tries, the conversation is around the linebreak, the big don't argue or the athletic put-down. In reality, many tries are a result of a play through the middle earlier in the set." - Stats the Matter: Running Metres

It's the simplest aspect of a simple game. 

Whether it's getting the ball up the field in hard sets or shrinking the defence by attracting defenders and poking their arms and head through the line to promote a quick play-the-ball, the work of those in the middle tends to create the opportunities out wide in one way or another.

Piling up running metres has been the recipe for success in recent years and it looks set to continue when the 2020 premiership winner is eventually found. Five of the last six premiers have sat inside the top three in the competition in running metres per game. The Melbourne Storm finished fifth in 2017 while the 2013 Sydney Roosters are the only side to have not been in the top seven since at least 2009.

As it stands in 2020, the Canberra Raiders are the only contending team in the bottom half of the running metres table. The four favourites all fall into the top six while seeing the St. George-Illawarra Dragons so high will surprise a few people. Despite their struggles, the Red V run for 1,805 metres per game thanks to their second-ranked 9.46 metres per run.

The three teams at the bottom of the list aren't quite so surprising. Currently 13th, 15th and 16th on the NRL ladder, the Gold Coast Titans, Brisbane Broncos and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs haven't given themselves a chance. They're the only three teams in the competition that have gone against the overall trend to average fewer running metres per game in 2020 than in 2019.

When it comes to the yardage game, the four favourites in the Storm, Roosters, Penrith Panthers and Paramatta Eels are where they need to be. 

Defence Wins Premierships

While you need to score points yourself to win, stopping them from coming back the other way has proven to be more important. 

Only the 2015 North Queensland Cowboys entered the finals with a defence ranked outside the top three in points conceded per game while going on to win the premiership. Even when taking into consideration those before 2006, including the 2005 Wests Tigers who conceded 23.9 points per game, the average rank of premiership winners is 2.7 since 1998.

Once again, the four favourites according to the Stats Insider futures model all sit comfortably at the top of the pile when it comes to points conceded per game in 2020.

In typical Storm fashion, they're conceding the fewest at just 12 points per game. Craig Bellamy didn't need long to make his defensive adjustments following the introduction of the six-again rule. Meanwhile, the Eels have cleaned up their defence to better position themselves for a run at the premiership to this time last year. As the second-worst defensive team in the Top 8 conceding 19.7 points per game in 2019, the Eels are allowing just 12.6 points through them in 2020. They've had a friendly draw and the 12.6 points conceded per game may flatter the Eels overall. However, there is little doubt that they've improved in defence area this season.

Nathan Cleary's development into one of the best players in the NRL this season has seen the Panthers rise from 10th on the ladder in 2019 to favourites for the Minor Premiership with six rounds to play in 2020.

Penrith has improved across the board, but it's their focus in defence that offers the most hope of winning it all this season. They're conceding just 13.9 points per game in 2020, down from 19.75 in 2019.

The Roosters conceding 14.1 points per game might be the most impressive, though. It's definitely a worry for the rest of the competition. They've been without Angus Crichton and Boyd Cordner for a month with the pair not looking likely to return soon. Victor Radley has been lost for the season which has resulted in three changes to the starting number 13 already. Defensive specialist Josh Morris has also missed time. Despite the turnover in faces and ever-changing combinations, the Roosters still play with one of the best defences in the NRL and it may still get better.

Futures Projections

The Top 8 looks all but set in stone.

There is a growing gap between the top four contenders and the Raiders at 5th too. 

The Stats Insider futures model has pegged the Storm as favourites and it's a difficult case to argue against right now. They're the most consistent side in the competition and have managed to maintain an excellent level of play while juggling injuries and the rarely mentioned fact they're living and playing every game away from Melbourne.

The Panthers are, in fact, the dark horses of the competition. Provided they make use of the third-easiest remaining schedule to finish as Minor Premiers, they will be in an excellent position to get through to the Grand Final. 

Valid questions still surround the Eels and how much they've improved after losing to the Storm 32-0 in Week 2 of the Finals last year. Their Round 18 clash with the Panthers will give us the best indication of where the Eels stand heading into the finals.

Nobody can count the Roosters out. Trent Robinson knows how to time their run. If he can get the side healthy and find a productive role for Sonny Bill Williams, it won't be long before their 17.7% to win the premiership inches closer to the Panthers and Storm above them.

The Verdict: A Cameron Smith swansong. He's yet to confirm his future and looks like he could play for another five years, but Smith seems the sort to go out on top of his game. With the Roosters falling off ever so slightly while the Panthers and Eels don't have the same finals experience, this might be Smith's best chance at winning one more. 

Melbourne always sends out a strong team but will lose Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Christian Welch and Suliasi Vunivalu for 2021 among other less-heralded names. Jesse Bromwich has a mutual option to negotiate, Felise Kaufusi a player option, and Josh Addo-Carr has talked about leaving for Sydney next year too. 

Where the Storm falls behind the other three teams in the yardage game, they play with the best defence in the competition. Add Smith's genius out of dummy half in attack and the calm only a player with 423 games worth of experience can bring over a side in a games biggest moments, Melbourne is the team to beat with the possibility of a fairytale only increasing their chances.

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