It's only three games throughout June and July, but the State of Origin discussion never really ends. The potential team lists have been debated for weeks, and now that they've been named, the talk moves to which state holds the advantage and where. 

New South Wales enter the series as heavy favourites, but the gap between them and Queensland might not be as big as some people think.

Only one position has a clear top dog with the two sides otherwise looking fairly even across the park.

FULLBACKS:

Kalyn Ponga v James Tedesco

They're two of the best fullbacks in the world.

In Kalyn Ponga, we get the speed, footwork and ball-playing ability. His stint in the halves to start the season in Newcastle didn't work out because he couldn't harness those first two attributes consistently enough to promote the third.

In his first game wearing the Maroon number one jersey, Ponga won't be short of opportunities with the ball in space to use all three. His combination with the equally dangerous Cameron Munster threatens to tear the Blues right side to shreds.

The Storm have scored 50% of their tries on Munster's left side. Likewise, the Knights have scored more tries on the left - Ponga's preferred side - than any other spot on the field.

Meanwhile, James Tedesco brings the brute force. It doesn't matter who he has around him; the Chook will break tackles and find his way to the try line.

Tedesco leads the competition in total running metres, linebreaks and tackle breaks. The Blues just need to feed Tedesco the ball for him to be effective.

It doesn't matter which team is on top, Tedesco can have an impact. Ponga, on the other hand, needs his pack to be somewhat dominant through the middle. 

There isn't much between the two, but with his added experience, Tedesco gets the nod.

WINGS:

Corey Oates and Dane Gagai
vs
Nick Cotric and Josh Addo-Carr

This is one area that requires little thought; Queensland has the advantage on the wings.

Corey Oates' work out of his own end is crucial in a State of Origin match. With the 'feeling out period' often extending longer than in a standard NRL match, and much of the game spent between the two 20-metre lines, it's the work Oates puts in on kick-return sets that makes him so valuable.

He averages 158 running metres per game, almost a third of which come post-contact. Not known for his ability as a destructive ball-runner, Dane Gagai turns it on for Origin, too. He found over 500 metres in the 2017 series, in which he won the Wally Lewis Medal.

The pair will work Queensland away from their goal-line. Once they're down the other end, we know what they can do in the corners.

It's a slightly different story for the Blues.

Nick Cotric makes his Origin debut in Game I. While a powerful runner himself, he's not in the same category as Corey Oates. In the nine games he's played on the wing for the Raiders in 2019, the 20-year-old has averaged just 109 running metres per game. He will break tackles and cause trouble to the defensive line, but Cotric will rely on some open space to really have an impact.

So too will Josh Addo-Carr. Get him in space, and he's gone. He can go quiet when asked to get himself involved, though.

Cotric and Addo-Carr could well turn up and run Oates and Gagai off the park, but when looking for the most reliable combination, side with the Maroons here.

CENTRES:

Will Chambers and Michael Morgan
vs
Latrell Mitchell and Josh Morris

Latrell Mitchell is the best centre in the game - when he wants to be.

His tendency for quiet games and a lack of motivation to get himself involved are well-documented, but given the occasion, it's safe to assume the 21-year-old will get his hands on the ball. So, does him simply putting on a Blues jumper give them the advantage in the centres?

It's not as clear-cut as people might think.

Will Chambers is lining up for his 11th State of Origin appearance; veteran numbers for this fixture. Michael Morgan cracks double-digits in Game I, too.

Chambers is a defensive specialist and will go a long way to shutting down whoever is opposite him. And while Morgan is playing out of position, a gifted footballer like him won't have a problem with the shift. He offers a reliable option in attack, and is always at his best when running the football no matter what number is on his back.

The pair don't have the speed, power, and overall dominance Mitchell can provide, but Chambers and Morgan can impact the game in different ways.

Then there's Josh Morris. Running out for his 15th Origin match, we know what to expect from him. He's lost a bit of pace, but he makes up for it in effort areas.

By virtue of having the best player in the position wearing sky blue, New South Wales hold the advantage in the centres. 

But, only just.

HALVES: 

Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans
vs
Cody Walker and Nathan Cleary

The halves have been a contentious position for both states in the buildup.

Cameron Munster is the only one of the four that has been assured of his place in camp all season. He's the best five-eighth in the NRL and could be the best fullback as well, if he was to play there consistently. He's come on in leaps and bounds in recent years, and his running game - in conjunction with the threat of Ponga out the back - is going to be one of the deciding factors for the series.

Daly Cherry-Evans occupies the halfback spot for the Maroons. His tumultuous seven-game State of Origin career has taken another turn with coach Kevin Walters naming him as Queensland captain.

Playing well for the Sea Eagles before going down injured, Cherry-Evans is in good form and more mature than he was in the 2013-15 series when attitude and personality issues arose. Handing him the captaincy is a show of faith from Walters. Expect this version of Cherry-Evans to repay it in spades throughout the series.

Nobody has been shown more faith than Nathan Cleary, though.

His Panthers side has been one of the worst in the NRL throughout the opening 12 rounds. Their attack is horrible, and Cleary needs to shoulder some of the blame. He's been selected anyway and is under all sorts of pressure to justify Freddy Fittler's decision.

Cleary's partnership with Cody Walker looks a winner on paper, but the reality could be a lot different. Cleary was largely ineffective throughout the 2018 series. Strong enough defensively, it was James Maloney steering the ship.

Not only is Cleary coming into this one out of form, but his workload is also set to increase this year.

Cody Walker is quite possibly the best player in the game right now. He's scoring tries, setting them up, generally causing havoc for defences, and is somehow always in the right place at the right time. If the Dally M Medal count truly reflected how players rank amongst each other 12 rounds into the NRL season, Walker would be at the top by some margin.

However, he's been able to do that alongside an organising Adam Reynolds at Souths. Will Cleary be able to steer the Blues to areas of the field that allow Walker to come off his leash?

That's the big question, and until it's answered, the Maroons have the advantage in the halves.

HOOKERS: 

Ben Hunt
vs
Damien Cook

We could skip this one...

Damien Cook is - at the very worst - the second-best hooker in the game behind Cameron Smith. Wayne Bennett has improved him even further for Cook to lead the NRL in try assists with 14 through 11 games. He's running less, which only makes things more difficult for the defenders at marker. Another ball-playing option in the middle when the play hits the edges, Cook can impact the game as a first-receiver to really throw some doubts into the defensive line.

Just the threat of Cook darting out of dummy half gives those outside him a little bit more time with the ball before A-defenders and markers become involved.

Great last year, Cook is a real contender for Player of the Series.

Ben Hunt, on the other hand, is a halfback playing as a hooker.

He's started six games in the number nine jersey, but it's not a spot on the field Hunt is going to dominate. Outside of providing decent service from behind the ruck, there isn't much more for Hunt to contribute. He's a strong runner of the ball as a halfback. Picking moments out of dummy half is a totally different challenge, though.

This position is a legitimate worry for Queensland.

PROPS: 

Jai Arrow and Josh Papalii
vs
David Klemmer and Paul Vaughan

These four are all monsters in their own right.

Dissecting the starting props of this series is a numbers game.

The Maroons have the more destructive pair in Jai Arrow and Josh Papalii. They will break tackles and search for an offload in contact.

The Blues, on the other hand, have the workmanlike consistency of two grafters that will always find their metres. Jarrod Wallace was slammed for managing just nine runs for Queensland in the first two games of the 2018 series. That's not something New South Wales ever have to worry about with David Klemmer and Paul Vaughan out there.

All four are elite in their positions, but State of Origin so often comes down to an arm-wrestle. It's an area the Blues are better equipped in heading into Game I. 

It could all change for Game II, though. If Arrow and Papalii start running downhill, there's no stopping them.

BACKROW: 

Felise Kaufusi, Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire
vs
Boyd Codner, Tyron Frizell and Jake Trbojevic

It's perhaps the most difficult area of the field to assess. 

Both sides have a favourable mixture of elite line-running (Felise Kaufisi & Boyd Cordner), a willingness to defend (Jake Trbojevic & Matt Gillett), and reliable yardage (Tyron Frizell & Jake McGuire).

Trbojevic could be the difference between the two sides.

He's been brilliant for the Sea Eagles on both sides of the ball. His defence is unyielding as attacking players regularly cough up possession when hit by the 25-year old. In attack, he's almost underrated as a ball-player now as the lock position produces more players with an ability to throw a half-decent pass than it used to.

The two sides are relatively even, but Trbojevic is the most likely to play overs and produce a match-winning performance.

It would only take one, so the advantage lays slightly with the Blues.

BENCH:

It's difficult to get a read on the 14's without seeing how they're used.

Moses Mbye's inclusion is pointless if he doesn't play any meaningful minutes at hooker. Meanwhile, nobody is quite sure what Jack Wighton's role will be. Perhaps a Ponga-like cameo, similar to Game II last year?

The Broncos props in Joe Ofahengaue and Payne Haas cancel each other out. Although, you could argue Haas deserves the lean with how he's played over the last few weeks. The kid is a freak and could well be the best forward on the field if his club form translates into the Origin arena.

Dylan Napa and Cameron Murray are two very different players. Their roles will be dependent on the situation with Murray possibly acting more as a utility should the Blues suffer any injuries.

It's tough to split David Fifita and Angus Crichton too. Just 19 years old and making his Origin debut, there are question marks around Fifita. Undoubtedly talented, the occasion can get the best of young players. While Crichton is in questionable club form, he knows what to expect on the night. He wouldn't be the first guy to play himself into form after spending a week at camp.

Both sides have three Origin debutants sitting on the bench. That in itself provides an element of uncertainty around their production before even thinking about how Walters and Fittler will use them.

Neither jumps out as better than the other, but given the need to choose one, the Blues' higher ceiling gives them a slight advantage.

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