So much has changed in the NRL across the last 12 months. Covid-19 threw up one thing after another. Some for the good of the game, others not so much. 

While the NRL will say everything is up for consideration and all new rules and interpretations will be reviewed over the summer, we know that is all lip service for the most part. The six-again rule and one referee, in particular, are here to stay.

Whether it's something you like or not, the reverberations of the six-again rule are already clear. With fewer penalties being awarded, the ball is spending more time in play. With that, there is more ‘stuff’ happening.

But while the ingredients for success have all increased with the rise in ‘stuff’ happening per game, the recipe for premiership success remains the same.

First of all: Defence still wins premierships.

"Since 2006, only the 2015 Cowboys have entered the finals with a defence outside the top three and gone on to win the premiership. The 2005 Tigers are the real outliers in the NRL era conceding 23.95 points per game during the regular season, a number that would have ranked 15th in 2019. But, for the most part, premiership-winning teams have been at the top end for an average rank of 2.7 since 1998."

Points are up, the little man is apparently back, and "fatigue" would be a $1.01 favourite if Oxford released a Rugby League Word of the Year. Still, defence is the winning formula of this new-look game.

This year it’s down to the Penrith Panthers and Melbourne Storm – the two best defensive teams in the NRL.

The Panthers have led the way all season to concede just 12.8 points per game. After allowing the Sydney Roosters to score a couple early in Round 1, the Panthers didn't concede a point in the opening 20 minutes of a match again until Round 16. Meanwhile, the Storm have been typically brilliant to concede just 14.1 points per game in 2020.

It’s a similar story in attack. 

It doesn’t roll off the tongue as nicely, but: "Defence wins premierships, and so does attack, just not quite as much."

Premiership winners throughout the NRL era have finished at an average of 3rd on the points scored per game list. Anybody that has seen the Storm and Panthers play in 2020 will have a rough idea of where they sit.

Melbourne's 27.3 points per game is the most in the competition. With 40% of their 102 tries coming down the left side this season, 22% through the middle and 38%down the right edge, they've proven to be dangerous across the park. Canberra's left edge early and often was circled on the whiteboard last week to great effect:

Meanwhile, Penrith's 26.6 points per game - notably less than a single point behind Melbourne - ranks 4th in the NRL. While 50 of their 100 tries this season have come via their left edge, Penrith is anything but one dimensional in attack. Jarome Luai, Viliame Kikau, Stephen Crichton and Josh Mansour link up regularly down the left edge. However, Nathan Cleary's tempoed runs, the line-running of Liam Martin and improved ball-playing of Dylan Edwards have produced plenty of points down the right side of the field. 

Again, numbers are up across the board. Every team has had the opportunity to spend more time with the ball in hand. The 2020 premiers will still be known as a top tier attacking team, though.

While there is a slight change to historical premiers when it comes to running metres, it hasn't been such a prevalent feature in winners overall. Five of the last six premiers have finished inside the top three in running metres per game. Although, four of the five premiers before them failed to crack the top three.

The Panthers and Storm align perfectly with the Panthers leading the NRL with 1,879 metres per game to the Storm's 7th-ranked 1,715 metres per game. 

James Fisher-Harris has been incredible for Penrith this season. He leads all forwards in total yardage with 3,980 metres in 2020 while Jason Taumalolo (207.5m) is the only forward to average more per game than Fisher-Harris' 180.9 metres. He's had plenty of help through one of the best back-three's in the NRL with Dylan Edwards (196.3m), Josh Mansour (183.1m) and Brian To'o (177.4m)regularly dragging the Panthers out of their own end.

Melbourne find metres right across the field. While Ryan Papenhuyzen (193.2m), Josh Addo-Carr (132.8m) and Suliasi Vunivalu (112m) offer plenty as a back-three, it's the 80-minute onslaught through the middle that puts Melbourne in a position to win. With Christian Welch (142.5m), Jesse Bromwich (123.1m) and Dale Finucane (122m) to start before Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (120.7m), Nelson Asofoa-Solomona (118.4m) and Brandon Smith (115m) come off the bench, the opposition is put under constant pressure through the middle-third.

The battle in the middle this week is a mouth-watering prospect, but more important than running metres gained is running metres conceded.

Seven of the last nine premiership-winning teams allowed their opposition to run for the fewest or second-fewest metres per game.

Guess which two teams top the running metres conceded list...

Go on...

2nd. Storm - 1,481 metres conceded per game
1st. Panthers - 1,465 metres conceded per game

Both the Storm and Panthers clog up the middle in defence before marching up the field with the ball in-hand. We saw the best of the Panthers in Week 1 of the finals following a slow start as they put a halt to the Roosters through the middle. The Storm never allowed the Raiders to get a roll on last week as they cruised to a 30-10 win.

So, just to recap:

I've said all that to say this: Sunday is going to be a beauty.

NRL Grand Final Crystal Ball

The Stats Insider Model agrees and is leaning towards a Storm win with a 20-18 projected scoreline.

After tipping a Cameron Smith swansong and Storm victory in the Grand Final back in August, little has changed despite the Panthers 17-game winning streak coming into this one.

Melbourne seems primed. While they have stacks of young talent to build a future around, this 2020 squad will be their best for some time given the departures. It appears to be Smith's last game with the club and is likely to be Craig Bellamy's best chance at lifting the trophy once more before leaving Melbourne at the end of 2021.

The two teams are relatively even 1-13. It's on the bench and in the coaches box where Melbourne start to separate themselves. Anticipating an early grind and a staring contest to see who blinks first, the introduction of Fa'asuamaleaui, Brandon Smith and either Asofa-Solomona or Finucane to the game as players start to fatigue could prove pivotal. 

It has been an exciting, weird and wacky 2020 season, but some things remain the same. Defence is the winner, that defence starts in the middle, ranking highly in attack is key, and Melbourne are premiership favourites.

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