The Tackle: NRL Round 1
Last updated: Mar 14, 2019, 10:39AM | Published: Mar 14, 2019, 2:53AM
A relieving exhale will be heard across the country on Thursday night as NRL fans finally turn their attention to the footy proper. Following the worst off-season in recent memory, on-field action can't come soon enough.
Two of the big guns get us underway in Melbourne, the oldest rivalry in rugby league soon follows before a repeat of 2018's Round 1 Super Sunday wraps up the weekend.
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Storm vs Broncos
When & Where: Thursday 14th March, 6:50PM, AAMI Park, Melbourne
Keep an eye on: Jahrome Hughes
Hughes has been tasked with filling the jersey left vacant by arguably the best ever fullback, Billy Slater. He wasn't the Storm's first choice, but an injury to Scott Drinkwater has provided the Kiwi with a chance to lay claim to the position for the long term. With only 17 first-grade games to his name, Hughes is still a relative newbie. However, he's played fullback more than anywhere else, and his ball-skills allow him to slot seamlessly into the attack. Fantasy Insider's k1w1nOz has those ball-skills translating into a handy DFS score this week too.
Match Comment
Provided the game is close and both sides look decent, we're not going to learn too much from this result. Craig Bellamy's Storm are always one of the better season-starters (17 Round 1 wins in a row?!) while the Broncos will be given the benefit of any doubt while new coach, Anthony Seibold, gets comfortable. Of all the games that might warrant a Round 1 overreaction, this is unlikely to be one of them.
Who Wins & Why?
Underdogs are always an appealing option early in the NRL season, but not when they come up against the Storm. Expertly prepared and well-coached, the Storm are going to be tough to beat at home.
Betting Value
As well-coached as the Storm might be, Seibold is no mug either, so not much value from the Stats Insider model at this point. View the model’s suggested bets here.
Knights vs Sharks
When & Where: Friday 15th March, 6:00PM, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Keep an eye on: Kalyn Ponga
Ponga is going to be just fine as a five-eighth. He's simply too good not to have some sort of a positive influence in the position. But will the extra defensive workload and less time with the ball take away some of his firepower?
Match Comment
The Knights are perhaps the most interesting story of the early rounds. Expectations for the club are their highest in the last five years. However, the Sharks have had their way recently with the Knights, winning each of the last eight games.
Who Wins & Why?
With Shaun Johnson effectively replacing Valentine Holmes, the Sharks are still a good football side, despite the salary cap dramas that have plagued their summer. They have the Knights covered for consistency and experience, and are better prepared to play good footy in Round 1. The Knights will get there, but so many new faces will make it difficult early in the season.
Betting Value
The Knights hype train is influencing the markets and it leaves the Sharks with a small edge against bookmakers markets in the head-to-head. while there's an orange smiley on over/under 40.5 at time of publication. View the model’s suggested bets here.
Roosters vs Rabbitohs
Where and when: Friday 15th March, 7:55PM, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Keep an eye on: Sam Burgess
He's not had a smooth off-season after finding himself in the news and talked about on social media for all of the wrong reasons. Will it all take his mind off the game, or fire him up?
Match Comment
The defending NRL Premiers host their arch-rivals to open the season. Unlike last year, expect the Roosters to come out stronger and not require seven or eight rounds to iron out their attacking systems. The Rabbitohs, on the other hand, might need a little time to adjust to theirlegendary new coach, Wayne Bennett.
Who Wins & Why
The Roosters win because they have the best first-choice 17 in the NRL. Until they're forced to deal with injuries, they are going to be deserved favourites every week. Who the Rabbitohs are sending out is still good enough to compete, and are a genuine chance at the NRL Premiership by September, but for Round 1, we will stick with what we know.
Betting Value
Souths aren't going to roll over, but the Stats Insider model has the Roosters winning in 61% of the 10,000 simulated matches for a minor edge in the H2H market. View the model’s suggested bets here.
Warriors vs Bulldogs
Where and when: Saturday 16th March, 2:00PM, Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
Keep an eye on: Adam Keirghan
Making his first-grade debut is enough pressure. Taking over from one of the best players in the club's history following an unceremonious exit only makes it tougher for the 21-year old.
Match Comment
Not much is expected of the Bulldogs this season; they're in full rebuild mode. Meanwhile, not much is known about the Warriors at all. Some have them treading water in the first season without Johnson. Others have them competing with the Bulldogs for the wooden spoon. We could learn a lot about the Warriors in this one.
Who Wins & Why
The Warriors are generally tough to beat at home, and after addressing the early-season struggles that had plagued them for years, look good to start the season with a victory. Despite Johnson no longer being part of the picture, the Warriors 17 is superior to that of the Bulldogs. While teams are working their way into a season, one player can change the course of a game. That player is Roger Tuivasa-Sheck in this one.
Betting Value
Despite optimism geared towards the Warriors handling things with a rookie half, the Stats Insider model has a big green smiley on the Bulldogs in the H2H market at time of publication. Remember, the model is dynamic and identifies value against the bookmakers markets so are subject to change. View the model’s suggested bets here.
Tigers vs Sea Eagles
Where and when: Saturday 16th March, 5:30PM, Leichhardt Oval, Sydney
Keep an eye on: The Fullbacks
Both Moses Mbye and Tom Trobojevic are out this week, leaving Corey Thompson to play fullback for the Tigers, and Brendan Elliot at the back for the Sea Eagles. Mbye and Trbojevic are two of the most influential players in their sides so whichever of the fill-ins plays best will go a long way to determining the result.
Match Comment
The Tigers got off to a flier last season before their attack failed to keep up, to see them finish outside the Top 8. Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles never really got going, with their coach resigning halfway through the year. At different levels of a rebuild, both sides carry plenty of uncertainties into this game and into the season as a whole.
Who Wins & Why
The Tigers get the benefit of the doubt here, but not by much. Sound defensively last season, that's about all they have going for them here. Wests recent record at Leichhardt Oval is poor and Manly have the better individual players in key positions. However, it's going to take more than a preseason to fix a Sea Eagles defence that finished last in the NRL in 2018.
Betting Value
Early doors but the Stats Insider model has a small edge to the Sea Eagles at time of publication. Check back closer to kickoff or click here for the model's suggested bets.
Cowboys vs Dragons
Where and when: Saturday 16th March, 7:35PM, 1300SMILES Stadium, Townsville
Keep an eye on: Michael Morgan
Playing beside Johnathan Thurston wasn't easy for Morgan in 2018. Doing so while battling a hernia problem didn't help either. With both issues alleviated, look for Morgan to get back to his 2017 form.
Match Comment
This game is notable for all of the wrong reasons. While the attention will eventually turn to the football, Jack de Belin's court case - and how his absence effects the Dragons - will be a talking point for weeks. This game, in particular, is one he will be missed in. While the Cowboys backline offers little excitement, their forward pack might be the most feared in the NRL.
Who Wins & Why
With everything that has happened in the Dragons camp recently, the Cowboys looking to rebound from a horror 2018, and the game being played in Townsville, the understandable lean is towards the home side. There isn't much between these two at the best of times, but the off-field issues the Dragons still need to navigate, are a worry.
Betting Value
This game is a lottery, but if you're buying a ticket, the Stats Insider model suggests one reading North Queensland Cowboys H2H. View the model’s suggested bets here.
Panthers vs Eels
Where and when: Sunday 17th March, 4:05PM, Panthers Stadium, Sydney
Keep an eye on: Dylan Brown
The 18-year-old rookie makes his first-grade debut in this one. Making a start for 2018's worst attacking team and eventual wooden spooners is no easy task.
Match Comment
A repeat of last season's opening round, both sides will be hoping it goes quite differently this time around. While the Panthers won, it was the first of far too many come-from-behind wins. As for the Eels, it began a string of six straight losses to start the year.
Who Wins & Why
Both teams are in similar positions to how they finished last season, leaving a win firmly in the Panthers' favour. Despite anticipating improvement from the Eels throughout the season, the inconsistency of their spine will translate heavily into the win-loss column. Penrith has the better side and know they have to start fast to avoid any unnecessary external pressure. They should do it comfortably at home.
Betting Value
Three solid suggested bets at time of publication, but as markets fluctuate the model's insights are subject to change. Check out the match page and come back closer to kickoff.
Titans vs Raiders
Where and when: Sunday 17th March, 6:10PM, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Keep an eye on: Bailey Simonsson
The former New Zealand sevens rugby union player and son of an ex-All Black makes his debut on the wing for the Raiders.
Match Comment
If there are two teams that could be anything in 2019, it's the Titans and Raiders. On one hand, you can see both making strong pushes for NRL Finals. On the other, dropping down to 14th-15th on the ladder isn't out of the question, either. Like their season as a whole, this game is tough to get a read on.
Who Wins & Why
Playing at home and with the advantage and continuity in the middle, the Titans are favoured to win. Their pack threatens to be one of the best in the competition if they can remain injury-free.
Betting Value
The Titans are getting some love from the Stats Insider model with on orange smiley in the H2H market as of time of publication, while also displaying a +5% edge to go under the 45.5 total too. View the model’s suggested bets here.
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