Why The Roosters Are A 2022 NRL Premiership Threat

With six wins in a row and a revival built on premiership-winning traits, the Roosters are a genuine chance to win the 2022 NRL Premiership.

The Roosters started the season with four wins in their first six games to sit at sixth on the ladder. 

Despite Sam Walker and Luke Keary somewhat struggling to gel in the halves and the pack not getting up the field quite like we're used to seeing, the Roosters managed to secure the result more often than not early on.

Most assumed an improvement, though. Trent Robinson would start to get the best out of his halves while Jared Waerea-Hargreaves would flick the switch he always seems to following a few quiet rounds to start leading the pack up the field. However, the improvements didn't come.

Roosters Positional Changes

As teams around them on the ladder figured things out and played themselves into a finals spot, the Roosters won only three of their next ten matches. At 10th on the NRL ladder after 16 rounds, Robinson was forced into changes.

He first moved Walker into halfback and Keary into five-eighth. It's not uncommon for coaches to swap the numbers on the back of their halves. What is uncommon is that those halves become different players and improve. It's typically an act of desperation, but on this occasion, the numbers on the back of Walker and Keary made a significant difference.

Keary averages ten fewer touches per game as a five-eighth than he did as a halfback earlier in the season. Still, he's popping up in more dangerous positions throughout his 43 touches per game since the move, getting back to his best and plugging himself down short sides, in particular.

Keary is at his best when he's running the ball and playing at a retreating defensive line. With the shackles of organising the team removed, the 30-year-old has run for 83.4 metres per game since his move back to five-eighth compared with 67 metres per game playing as an on-ball halfback.

Meanwhile, Walker is thriving with the extra touches. Concerns around his age and ability to manage men with far more first-grade experience were misplaced. Walker has an exceptionally high footy IQ for somebody his age. Running backwards to wind down the clock, as much as it fired up the old heads that talk about the game, is a high percentage play we've rarely ever seen at the end of a match. 

He handed out seven try assists throughout his 15 games wearing the #6 jersey. In his seven games donning #7, Walker has already dished out eight tries to teammates. 

A friendly draw of late has helped Keary and Walker's combination while allowing them to pile up numbers. The 72 points the Roosters hung on the Wests Tigers is more a reflection of how poor their opposition was than the dominance displayed by Robinson's side. However, having crossed 30 points for the fifth time in six weeks, the Roosters have played themselves into being one of the best-attacking teams in the NRL as finals football approaches.

While the change in position and roles has certainly impacted the form and combination of Keary and Walker, the pair are playing behind what is now a dominant middle.

Matt Lodge's Impact

A middling yardage team across the first 16 games of the season, the Roosters have turned a corner since Matt Lodge joined the club. He has added stability to the middle of the field for the Roosters to be the best yardage team in the NRL since Round 18.

He's averaging only 121 running metres per game since joining the Roosters, but Lodge isn't doing it on his own. However, beside Waerea-Hargreaves (129m) to start in the middle and while Lindsay Collins (99m) and Siosiua Taukeiaho (142m) nurse injuries, Lodge has helped the Roosters navigate a difficult period in yardage. 

With Collins and Taukeiaho on the mend and expected to return before the end of the regular season, the Roosters will head into September with one of the best yardage-generating middle rotations in the NRL.

And with an improving halves pairing playing behind a dominant middle comes an improvement in defence.

Defence Wins NRL Premiership

Defence wins NRL premierships and only those sitting inside the top three in defence at the end of the regular season have much of a chance. Just one team since 2005 has lifted the Provan-Summons Trophy with a defence ranked outside of the top three.

Regular reshuffles in the centres and on the edge have impacted the way the Roosters defend. Joseph Manu has spent time in the centres, fullback and five-eighth; Sitili Tupouniua suffered a season-ending injury in Round 18 with Nat Butcher since filling in; and Billy Smith went down in the same game requiring Paul Momirovski, Drew Hutchison and possibly still Oliver Gildart to slot into the centres.

The Roosters rank 5th in defence through 16 rounds conceding 18.4 points per game. They've not defended at the level we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years. 

However, if we narrow it down to this purple patch in form they hope to carry into September, the Roosters are conceding only 14.6 points per game - a number that would sit second in the NRL overall.

September brings with it different challenges. The Roosters have played some awful teams of late and home ground advantage has helped, too. But now at 94.2% to finish inside the top eight, Robinson can start to plan for the finals. 

While the Stats Insider NRL futures model can only bump the Roosters up to fifth on the premiership winner list at 6.6%, we know better than to take this team lightly.

Top-tier yardage and defence are consistent traits of premiership-winning teams and the Roosters are one of the form sides in the competition in both categories. They're starting to develop cohesion in key playmaking positions in attack and on the edges in defence, too.

There is still some work to do with the Storm and Rabbitohs to come. Back-to-back defeats and a few results against them could see the Roosters fall out of the top eight yet. 

But if Robinson can guide the Roosters into September on an eight-game winning streak, they're going to be the team nobody wants to play in the finals.

Sydney Roosters 2022 Futures Odds