First and Anytime Try Scorer Tips for State of Origin 3, 2022
Jul 12, 2022, 3:45AM
After simulating this Wednesday's State of Origin game 10,000 times, Stats Insider has identified the most likely State of Origin Game 3 try scorers.
It's Game 3 of the 2022 State of Origin and we're here to help with predictions for Blues vs Maroons.
As Australia's leading sports analytics site, we run thousands of simulations to determine the most likely outcomes of each NRL and Origin game, including State of Origin try scorers.
Thanks to our model's predictions for NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, check out our tips for the first try scorer and anytime try scorers in Origin Game 3 below.
RELATED: State of Origin Stats Insider Projections
State of Origin 3 Try Scorer Tips
Brian To'o Anytime Try at $1.96
One of six NSW try scorers in Game 2, Brian To'o is the most likely player to score in Origin Game 3.
To'o has scored six tries in nine games for the Panthers this season, and now leads the way as the most likely anytime try scorer for State of Origin Game 3.
Our fair odds for an anytime try from To'o this Wednesday are $2.16, with TopSport offering the best of the bookies at $1.96.
RELATED: Betting tips for NSW vs QLD
Daniel Tupuo Anytime Try at $2.00
After scoring in Game 2, Daniel Tupou now has three career tries for the Blues and looks good to make it four as NSW takes on Queensland on Wednesday night.
Plus, despite being second on our list for an anytime try, Tupou is projected as the most likely State of Origin Game 3 first try scorer, with a 9.4% probability.
Our fair odds for Tupou to score a try in Game 3 are $2.18, with the $2.00 on offer at TAB the best available for punters.
RELATED: NRL Try Location Analysis
Selwyn Cobbo Anytime Try at $2.70
After scoring two tries in seven games last season, Selwyn Cobbo has taken the leap at the Broncos, with 12 tries in 14 games in the NRL in 2022.
Cobbo is yet to join the list of try scorers in State of Origin 2022, but at a 31.9% probability, he's the most likely Maroons player to score in Game 3.
Our fair odds for Cobbo to score his first Origin try are $3.13, with Neds' $2.70 the best in market.
RELATED: NRL 2022 Premiership Odds
Corey Oates Anytime Try at $2.65
Broncos winger Corey Oates has already recorded his sixth double-digit scoring season in 2022, and he's now one of the most likely Origin Game 3 try scorers.
Oates is not yet certain to play for Queensland, but if he does, we're expecting big and important minutes from the winger.
Our model's fair odds for an Oates try this week are $3.46, while the best odds available for betting come from Sportsbet at $2.65.
QLD vs NSW is at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Wednesday, July 13 at 8:10pm AEST.
Anytime Try Scorers for Origin 3
| Player | Team | Anytime Try Probability |
| Brian To'o | NSW | 46.3% |
| Daniel Tupou | NSW | 45.9% |
| James Tedesco | NSW | 41.6% |
| Stephen Crichton | NSW | 34.2% |
| Matt Burton | NSW | 34.1% |
| Selwyn Cobbo | QLD | 31.9% |
| Corey Oates | QLD | 28.9% |
| Kalyn Ponga | QLD | 21.4% |
| Dane Gagai | QLD | 20.0% |
| Valentine Holmes | QLD | 19.7% |
State of Origin 3 Same Game Multi
Looking to place a multi on Origin 3 try scorers this Wednesday? The two players we suggest taking together are as follows:
- Brian To'o ($1.96)
- Selwyn Cobbo ($2.70)
- Same Game Multi odds = $5.21
Multi odds via Neds. All odds and probabilities in this article are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Top Try Scorers State of Origin 2022
- Two tries: Nathan Cleary
- One try: Matt Burton, Brian To'o, Daniel Tupou, Jarome Laui, Angus Chrichton, Jack Wighton, Cameron Murray, Felise Kaufusi, Cameron Munster, Dane Gagai, Daly Cherry-Evans, Valentine Holmes
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
