Australia World Cup 2022 Predictions, Betting Tips, Odds and Best Bets
Last updated: Nov 15, 2022, 2:45PM | Published: Nov 9, 2022, 12:02PMStats Insider, Australia's leading predictive analytics site, has used its powerful football model to determine how likely it is that the Socceroos can progress to each stage of the FIFA World Cup 2022.
Australia has been drawn in Group D of the World Cup 2022, with games against France, Tunisia and Denmark determining whether they will make the knockout stage.
Australia FIFA World Cup 2022 Fixtures (AEDT)
- Australia vs France: 23 November, 6:00AM
- Australia vs Tunisia: 26 November, 9:00PM
- Australia vs Denmark: 1 December, 2:00AM
After failing to qualify in seven straight World Cups from 1978 through 2002, Australia is making its fifth straight World Cup appearance in 2022. The Socceroos are trying to escape the group stage for just the second time in the nation's World Cup history after doing so in 2006.
Australia World Cup Predictions
The odds are against Australia according to Stats Insider's model, which gives France an 88.1% chance of advancing out of Group D and Denmark a 74.9% chance of doing so. Australia made the knockout stage in 17.5% of our model's group stage simulations, with Tunisia doing just slightly better at 19.5%.
If Australia does advance into the round of 16 for the first time since 2006, its most likely opponents would be Argentina at 51.7%, Poland at 23.2% and Mexico at 19.9%.
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Australia's Odds for World Cup 2022
After simulating the entirety of the 2022 World Cup 10,000 times, Australia came out on top just nine times, proving that although it's highly unlikely, it is not impossible for the Socceroos to win it all in Qatar.
Of the Socceroos' nine projected World Cup final wins, three were against Brazil, with the other victories coming against Spain, Serbia, Uruguay, Netherlands, Argentina and Cameroon.
Australia also made the final and lost in 22 more simulations, with France leading the way with five wins in those.
When looking at Group D in particular, Australia is the least likely to advance to the round of 16 with a probability of 17.5% or fair odds of $5.71.
Stage of World Cup 2022 | Stats Insider Probability | Best Betfair odds |
Overall winner | 0.1% | $810 |
Make the final | 0.3% | $300 |
Make the semi final | 1.3% | $34 |
Make the quarter final | 4.9% | $26 |
Make the round of 16 | 17.5% | $5.50 |
Win Group D | 4.0% | $26 |
Odds and probabilities are correct as of 10 November.
Australia World Cup 2022 Best Bets
As it stands, our model rates Australia as having an 8.2% chance of winning their opening game against France, meaning any odds above $12.20 would give punters taking the Socceroos to win an edge on the market.
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Betting Tips for Australia
With the latest odds from Betfair below, check out the best bets to make on France vs Australia, including head-to-head, over/under 2.5 goals, and both teams to score.
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