Brazil World Cup 2022 Predictions, Betting Tips, Odds and Best Bets

Last updated: Nov 15, 2022, 2:44PM | Published: Nov 9, 2022, 12:01PM

Stats Insider, Australia's leading predictive analytics site, has used powerful soccer modelling to determine how likely it is that Brazil can progress to each stage of the FIFA World Cup 2022.

Brazil has been drawn in Group G of the World Cup 2022, with games against Switzerland, Serbia and Cameroon determining whether they will make the knockout stage.

Brazil FIFA World Cup 2022 Fixtures (AEDT)

Brazil vs Serbia: 25 November, 6:00AM
Brazil vs Switzerland: 29 November, 3:00AM
Brazil vs Cameroon: 3 December, 6:00AM

Brazil is the most accomplished nation in World Cup history with five titles, two runner-up finishes and four semifinals appearances. After settling for a quarterfinals exit in three of its last four World Cups, Brazil is looking to win its first title since 2002 this year.

Brazil World Cup Predictions

Stats Insider's model projects Brazil to be the most likely team to win the World Cup, doing so in 15.6% of the model's simulations. Brazil is a clear favourite to win Group G at 64.5% and is expected to make the final 25.4% of the time this year.

Brazil will likely have to beat a very strong team to avoid another quarterfinals elimination this year. Spain (29.2% of the time), Germany (25.1%) and Belgium (17.1%) are Brazil's most likely quarterfinals opponents.

RUN YOUR OWN: FIFA World Cup 2022 Simulator

Brazil’s Odds for World Cup 2022

After 10,000 simulations of the FIFA World Cup 2022, Brazil is the most likely team to win the entire tournament, with a probability of 15.6%.

As the favourites both in our model and with bookies all across the world, Brazil again has the weight of the footballing world on its shoulders coming into a World Cup.

When looking at Group G in particular, Brazil is the most likely to advance to the round of 16 with a probability of 87.9% or fair odds of $1.14.

Stage of World Cup 2022	Stats Insider Probability	Best Betfair odds
Overall winner	15.6%	$5.40
Make the final	25.4%	$3.40
Make the semi final	39.6%	$2.34
Make the quarter final	61.7%	$1.49
Make the round of 16	87.9%	$1.13
Win Group G	64.5%	$1.42

Odds and probabilities correct as of November 4th.

Brazil World Cup 2022 Best Bets

Brazil begins its FIFA World Cup 2022 campaign with a game against Serbia, with our model projecting the tournament favourites as having a 64.2% win probability, meaning any odds above $1.56 would be a good bet.

MORE: FIFA World Cup 2022 Golden Ball Preview

Betting Tips For Brazil

At the time of writing, you can bet 'no' on the both teams to score market at odds of $1.89. With our implied fair odds at $1.83, you would have a 2% edge on the market with this bet.

With the latest odds from Betfair below, check out the best bets to make on Brazil vs Serbia, including head-to-head, over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

RELATED: Brazil vs Serbia Prediction

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Stats Insider is your home of World Cup 2022 predictions with the latest FIFA World Cup 2022 news, predictions for every World Cup 2022 game, and futures odds for each stage of the World Cup 2022.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.