England World Cup 2022 Predictions, Betting Tips, Odds and Best Bets

Last updated: Nov 15, 2022, 2:43PM | Published: Nov 9, 2022, 12:02PM

Stats Insider, Australia's leading predictive analytics site, has used powerful soccer modelling to determine how likely it is that the Three Lions can progress to each stage of the FIFA World Cup 2022.

England has been drawn in Group B of the World Cup 2022, with games against United States, Wales and Iran determining whether they will make the knockout stage.

England FIFA World Cup 2022 Fixtures (AEDT)

England vs Iran: 22 November, 12:00AM
England vs USA: 26 November, 6:00AM
England vs Wales: 30 November, 6:00AM

England matched its best World Cup result since winning the tournament in 1966 with a fourth-place finish in 2018. The English will try to take the next step in 2022 as one of the betting favourites to win the World Cup.

England World Cup Predictions

Stats Insider's model lists Brazil as the favourite to win the 2022 World Cup, doing so in 15.6% of its simulations. But England's 10.1% to win and France's 11.6% separate these three nations from the pack as the only ones with projected odds to win of over 10%.

England's most likely stage of elimination according to the model is the round of 16 at 26.2%. The team's most likely quarterfinals opponent is France at 35.7%. Should England advance to the World Cup Final, Brazil is its most likely opponent at 16.9%.

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England’s Odds for World Cup 2022

After simulating the FIFA World Cup 2022 10,000 times, England is the third most likely team to win the entire tournament, with a probability of 10.1%

After having lost in the final at Euro 2020 and the semi finals of the World Cup 2018, England is now projected as having a 18.4% chance of making the final in Qatar.

When looking at Group B in particular, England is the most likely to advance to the round of 16 with a probability of 83.0% or fair odds of $1.20.

Stage of World Cup 2022	Stats Insider Probability	Best Betfair odds
Overall winner	10.1%	$10
Make the final	18.4%	$5
Make the semi final	32.9%	$2.86
Make the quarter final	56.8%	$1.57
Make the round of 16	83.0%	$1.11
Win Group B	59.0%	$1.45

Odds and probabilities correct as of November 10th.

England World Cup 2022 Best Bets

For its opening game of the group stage, our model rates England as a 69.7% chance of winning against Iran, meaning head-to-head odds of above $1.43 would be recommended as a bet.

MORE: FIFA World Cup 2022 Golden Ball Preview

Betting Tips For England

At the time of writing, both teams to score is projected as a 39% chance of occurring, whilst the odds of $2.76 available equate to an implied probability of just 36%.

With the latest odds from Betfair below, check out the best bets to make on England vs Iran, including head-to-head, over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

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Stats Insider is your home of World Cup 2022 predictions with the latest FIFA World Cup 2022 news, predictions for every World Cup 2022 game, and futures odds for each stage of the World Cup 2022.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.